Two puzzling things about the Travers...

[Dunbar]

Two things about the Travers puzzle me.

1. The place payout on Bernardini.

I wrote down the place pool info from YouBet, and from my figs the place payout should have been $2.20 on Bernardini, not $2.10. Here is the pool info, along with my calcs on the place payout on Bernardini:

Horse, place pool, OddsTo1, $2 pay, after breakage
Hesanoldsalt 18587 0.3123 $2.62 $2.60
MinistersBid 41470 0.2629 $2.53 $2.50
Dr. Pleasure 13950 0.3223 $2.64 $2.60
High Cotton 38998 0.2682 $2.54 $2.50
Bernardini 231405
BluegrassCat 114350 0.1054 $2.21 $2.20

Total place pool: $458,761.

After each horse's name, the first number is the amount bet on that horse to place. The 2nd number is the "odds to 1" on Bernardini's place payoff if that horse would have finished 2nd.

For BlueGrass Cat finishing 2nd, the "Odds to 1" for the place payoff on Bernardini is:
Odds to 1 = (0.86 * 458,761 - 231,405 - 114,350)/(2 * 231,405) = 0.1054

If those figs are correct, the place payoff should have been $2.20, not $2.10.

Any chance anyone here can confirm my place pool figs? I thought I was copying them carefully, but I unfortunately don't have a screen save. Also, the takeout for WPS is 14% at Saratoga, right? If it were 15%, then the $2.10 would be correct.

Unless anyone here can see an error, I'm going to write to NYRA to ask about it.

2. The 2nd thing that surprised me about the Travers was that the bettors didn't like Bernardini enough to create a big minus pool in the show betting. Bernardini ended up with just 70% of the show pool on him. I expected to see over 90%.

Bernardini only needed to beat 3 horses in the Travers to "show". Usually there will be several bridgejumpers ready to unload big time on a prospect like that. When Sun King ran in Tampa, he had 96.7% of the show pool on him. I guess when there is a good 2nd best horse (BGC) in the race, it dampens the bridgejumpers' enthusiasm.

--Dunbar