Early betting on Belmont?

[XIIPointStables]

Can I find the "current" odds after advance wagering today?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

Can I find the "current" odds after advance wagering today?

They showed the early betting on TVG. I don't know how significant the early odds are. For the Derby, it is fairly significant because the pool is very large even the day before. I have no idea how much money is in the pool right now for the Belmont, so the early odds may not be terribly significant.

Anyway, Rags to Riches was even-money in the early betting. Curlin was 2-1. Hard Spun was 7-1.

[XIIPointStables]

WOW. Love to know how much is actually in the pools.

Those odds are crazy.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

They showed the early betting on TVG. I don't know how significant the early odds are. For the Derby, it is fairly significant because the pool is very large even the day before. I have no idea how much money is in the pool right now for the Belmont, so the early odds may not be terribly significant.

Anyway, Rags to Riches was even-money in the early betting. Curlin was 2-1. Hard Spun was 7-1.

I think we can safely assume that the final odds will bear little relation to those odds!

A better predictor is the future odds at TheGreek. (Pinnacle doesn't have straight future odds.) TheGreek's odds on Curlin have dropped from 6-5 to even money. Hard Spun has dropped from 4.05-1 to 3.85-1. Rags to Riches has risen from 3.05-1 to 3.45-1.

Interestingly, Bodog is offering the morning line odds on its futures. (Curlin is still 6-5 there). If you combine the best from Bodog and TheGreek, the takeout is just 11%.

fwiw, here's my guess at closing odds:
Imawild, 20
Tiago, 12
Curlin, 4-5
CP West, 15
Slew's Tizzy, 25
Hard Spun, 4
Rags to Riches, 4

--Dunbar

[tiznowthegreat]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think we can safely assume that the final odds will bear little relation to those odds!

A better predictor is the future odds at TheGreek. (Pinnacle doesn't have straight future odds.) TheGreek's odds on Curlin have dropped from 6-5 to even money. Hard Spun has dropped from 4.05-1 to 3.85-1. Rags to Riches has risen from 3.05-1 to 3.45-1.

Interestingly, Bodog is offering the morning line odds on its futures. (Curlin is still 6-5 there). If you combine the best from Bodog and TheGreek, the takeout is just 11%.

fwiw, here's my guess at closing odds:
Imawild, 20
Tiago, 12
Curlin, 4-5
CP West, 15
Slew's Tizzy, 25
Hard Spun, 4
Rags to Riches, 4

--Dunbar

I think that Tiago will be single digits as he appears to be the "wise guy" horse for the race (i.e. Circular Quay in the preakness)

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think we can safely assume that the final odds will bear little relation to those odds!

A better predictor is the future odds at TheGreek. (Pinnacle doesn't have straight future odds.) TheGreek's odds on Curlin have dropped from 6-5 to even money. Hard Spun has dropped from 4.05-1 to 3.85-1. Rags to Riches has risen from 3.05-1 to 3.45-1.

Interestingly, Bodog is offering the morning line odds on its futures. (Curlin is still 6-5 there). If you combine the best from Bodog and TheGreek, the takeout is just 11%.

fwiw, here's my guess at closing odds:
Imawild, 20
Tiago, 12
Curlin, 4-5
CP West, 15
Slew's Tizzy, 25
Hard Spun, 4
Rags to Riches, 4

--Dunbar

I will be very surprised if the filly is 4-1. I think she will be more like 5-2 or maybe 3-1. I think Curlin will be about 6-5 or 7-5.

[Rupert Pupkin]

The odds have already changed substantially from yesterday. I'm sure they will change quite a bit more as the day goes on. Here are the current odds:

Imawildandcrazyguy 6-1
Tiago 9-2
Curlin 9-5
CP West 9-1
Slew's Tizzy 14-1
Hard Spun 5-1
Rags to Riches 7-2

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I will be very surprised if the filly is 4-1. I think she will be more like 5-2 or maybe 3-1. I think Curlin will be about 6-5 or 7-5.

You may be right about the filly, Rupert. On the betting exchanges, Rags is trading near 3-1, while it's easy to get more than 5-1 on Hard Spun!

--Dunbar