hard spun ..impressed..not really - Page 6

Payson Dave · #**101** 03-27-2007, 10:22 AM

Hey Cannon,
Did everyone ship ok?? Are you back at Churchill?

Kasept · #**102** 03-27-2007, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjf1031

If jockey chose to go outside yet horse still ran SS to a nose decision, how does that not make it a superior race. Have to agree with JJP

Don't know why anyone would try to separate 'the superior race' from between Any Given Saturday and Street Sense at Tampa or what is accomplished in trying to do so...

Saturday had the advantagve of a race over the surface and 2nd/start off the layoff... Street Sense had the disadvantage of first start off a 100+ day layoff and a trip over the slower part of the track... Saturday lost some ground on the turn and Street saved some... They arrived at the wire together. Equally terrific performances and neither deserves to be identified as 'superior'.

They each were superb and they both exit the race as worthy of praise and expectations of ongoing excellence this campaign.

Payson Dave · #**103** 03-27-2007, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't know why anyone would try to seperate 'the superior race' from between Any Given Saturday and Street Sense at Tampa or what is accomplished in trying to do so...

Saturday had the advantagve of a race over the surface and 2nd/start off the layoff... Street Sense had the disadvantage of first start off a 100+ day layoff and a trip over the slower part of the track... Saturday lost some ground on the turn and Street saved some... They arrived at the wire together. Equally terrific performances and neither deserves to be identified as 'superior'.

They each were superb and they both exit the race as worthy of praise and expectations of ongoing excellence this campaign.

I see the above post as viewing the glass as half full rather alot of posts lately as trying to make a case for the glass being half empty...IMHO both performances were very good but for different reasons.

jjf1031 · #**104** 03-27-2007, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't know why anyone would try to seperate 'the superior race' from between Any Given Saturday and Street Sense at Tampa or what is accomplished in trying to do so...

Saturday had the advantagve of a race over the surface and 2nd/start off the layoff... Street Sense had the disadvantage of first start off a 100+ day layoff and a trip over the slower part of the track... Saturday lost some ground on the turn and Street saved some... They arrived at the wire together. Equally terrific performances and neither deserves to be identified as 'superior'.

They each were superb and they both exit the race as worthy of praise and expectations of ongoing excellence this campaign.

Steve

I was just making the comment that jockey decision to go outside on AGS does not lower the effort he put in. If anything it makes it stronger that he overcame the decision

Kasept · #**105** 03-27-2007, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjf1031

Steve

I was just making the comment that jockey decision to go outside on AGS does not lower the effort he put in. If anything it makes it stronger that he overcame the decision

jjf,

Agree.. I'd also say that Johnny V's constant over/under shoulder glancing to watch for Street Sense worked against Any Given Saturday.. Takes a horse and rider out of their rhythm..

philcski · #**106** 03-27-2007, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

As of 3/24 post 10 in route races at TP was 12%.

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

Kasept · #**107** 03-27-2007, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

Phil..

Would actually be 11 of 153, no?

87 with 9 horses; another 20 with 10; 25 with 11 and 21 with 12..

philcski · #**108** 03-27-2007, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Phil..

Would actually be 11 of 153, no?

87 with 9 horses; another 21 with 10; 20 with 11 and 25 with 12...

220 starters in 120 races; of which 87 had at least 9 starters, 66 >=10 starters, 46 >=11 starters, and 21 >= 12 starters. I see how you are looking at it but I think you've got yourself mixed up- if you said "how did the inside 2 posts do" you'd say 37 for 240, right?

Kasept · #**109** 03-27-2007, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

220 starters in 120 races; of which 87 had at least 9 starters, 66 >=10 starters, 46 >=11 starters, and 21 >= 12 starters. I see how you are looking at it but I think you've got yourself mixed up- if you said "how did the inside 2 posts do" you'd say 37 for 240, right?

I would say 37 for 120. There is only the finite universe of number of opportunities (races). There wouldn't be 220 opps for the 1 or 2.. only the 120 opps. But you're likely right as there were 21 opps for the 12 to win; 46 for the 11, etc..

philcski · #**110** 03-27-2007, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I would say 37 for 120. There is only the finite universe of number of opportunities (races). There wouldn't be 220 opps for the 1 or 2.. only the 120 opps. But you're likely right as there were 21 opps for the 12 to win; 46 for the 11, etc..

Fair point. End result is the post position isn't insurmountable like at GP at a mile and an eighth or Aqueduct inner at a mile (I just looked at 91 races from there and the 8 post was 4 for 62, the 9 post was 1 for 36, and the 10 post was 0 for 18... brutal. They shouldn't even run that distance on the inner.)

#**111** 03-27-2007, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

jjf,

Agree.. I'd also say that Johnny V's constant over/under shoulder glancing to watch for Street Sense worked against Any Given Saturday.. Takes a horse and rider out of their rhythm..

This is something I really dont like jocks to do with younger horses. JV is very good, but I have seen him do this before and the horse quits paying attention to his purpose. I know JV needs to make a decision on what to do, and maybe he is experimenting (if the horse will keep on task), but I have seen horses lose their concentration and rythym based on what they feel the jockey doing up top.

Some of these horses are not cars that will just keep going while you glance around, even with foot on pedal.

Kasept · #**112** 03-27-2007, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is something I really dont like jocks to do with younger horses. JV is very good, but I have seen him do this before and the horse quits paying attention to his purpose. I know JV needs to make a decision on what to do, and maybe he is experimenting (if the horse will keep on task), but I have seen horses lose their concentration and rythym based on what they feel the jockey doing up top.

Some of these horses are not cars that will just keep going while you glance around, even with foot on pedal.

P,

It's more than losing focus too.. There's the matter of distribution of weight. When a jock shifts his body or shoulders to sneak a peak, it changes the balance above and causes a horse a loss of fluidity or action that is measureable ultimately in lost ground. When you talk about losing photos by the width of a piece of paper, it becomes important.. Velasquez looked 4 times for Street Sense on and out of the turn.

The point is: "Ride YOUR horse.. don't try to ride your opponents."

Or as Woody Allen said in "Love and Death" (I think).. "My Uncle Vladimir, not a smart man, but, you know, wise.. always said, 'You can't ride two horses with one tuchas.'"

#**113** 03-27-2007, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

P,

It's more than losing focus too.. There's the matter of distribution of weight. When a jock shifts his body or shoulders to sneak a peak, it changes the balance above and causes a horse a loss of fluidity or action that is measureable ultimately in lost ground. When you talk about losing photos by the width of a piece of paper, it becomes important.. Velasquez looked 4 times for Street Sense on and out of the turn.

The point is: "Ride YOUR horse.. don't try to ride your opponents."

Or as Woody Allen said in "Love and Death" (I think).. "My Uncle Vladimir, not a smart man, but, you know, wise.. always said, 'You can't ride two horses with one tuchas.'"

Oh it is very evident to me that weight shifting, even subtle, can make a large difference in a horse. I watched my wife many hours in dressage lessons and hunter-jumper shows (bored stiff). I was just thinking that maybe JV is so good that the horse might not feel JV's weight shift while looking around, maybe he has perfected it. I dont know, Im not a jock, and I know the guy is very good at what he does. So I am careful to question his tactics.

jpops757 · #**114** 03-27-2007, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjf1031

If jockey chose to go outside yet horse still ran SS to a nose decision, how does that not make it a superior race. Have to agree with JJP

What it amounts to is both horses ran there race and SS won. If they both run again I look for similar style and maybe AGS will turn the table but dont tell me AGS was the best horse in last. The finish tells te tale.

Cannon Shell · #**115** 03-27-2007, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

September races should not be combined with the winter results because they track plays a little different when it is warm like Sept versus the cold weather days. At least it does in my opinion. Not that that is worth much.

todko · #**116** 03-27-2007, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

If you're including mile races the stats might be skewed. TP has a really short run to the turn at a mile. If you threw out the mile races you might find the outside posts doing better.

Like most tracks -- they don't run many races at 8.5f and above. Tough to get a statistically significant stat from such a small sample.

Cannon Shell · #**117** 03-27-2007, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko

Tough to get a statistically significant stat from such a small sample.

that is good point

Cannon Shell · #**118** 03-27-2007, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Hey Cannon,
Did everyone ship ok?? Are you back at Churchill?

Shipped well and back at CD

philcski · #**119** 03-27-2007, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

September races should not be combined with the winter results because they track plays a little different when it is warm like Sept versus the cold weather days. At least it does in my opinion. Not that that is worth much.

an excellent point. especially with the way the poly has reacted negatively to the cold weather... could certainly affect the paths that were best.

i noticed they were "tilling" it after every race on Saturday. seemed a lot looser and safer that way.