Oracle thanks for mushing Circular Quay

[Round Pen]

Were in the world are you getting this I have never said that. Sure I use Pedigrees on Occassion But were in the World Did I say I make Money doing it this way. Your trying to put words into my mouth.

[sumitas]

Just like Jazil and Bob And John have the same cross but different families. Jazil's family is more stamina oriented and it shows.

[Round Pen]

Here are the first couple of lines from my Orginal Statement.


OK Guys CQ will be somewhere in the line of 4/5 or less. LEt me tell you a couple of reasons why I think CQ is a bet Against.

A. I have seen to many young horses over the years that have a tremendous turn of foot Sprinting only to not show that same turn of foot around 2 turns and CQ kind of reminds me of that type of horse.


B. I am not as sold as some of you guys who think CQ has a pedigree that will stretch out. And heres why 1st off CQ is out of Circle of LIfe who made 10 Lifetime Starts with a record of 10---3-1-2 of those 10 starts 4 were made running a route of ground her record in those races were 4----0-0-2 and Sprinting COL had a record of 5----3-1-0.


Read A really well that is what I thought of his races
B is just what I read Into His pedigree that he would not go long

I must admit Oracle, being from New York I like your bravado, but your handicapping is primitive at best, and non-existent on its face. Yet it is your slamming of other posters with your prattle filled posts that is particularly annoying.

Just this thread you stated that: Great Hunter is one-paced, yet as a 2yo he has passed thirty horses in his six races! Hello!

Also you posted "horses with a burst of accelleration are screwed". Brilliant again.

As far as Marty McGee; years ago when I kept books, typed up owners' bills and many other duties for many Keeneland trainers such as "Rusty" Arnold, Neil Howard, Steve Penrod and others, Marty McGee would come around and I tried to teach him a bit of handicapping. Alas, he is a nice guy, but never learned much. If it wasn't for his connections, he would be in deep water.

I wish you no ill will, but be aware, your cappin needs a ton of work. BBB

[sumitas]

Well, CQ had a wider trip than the winner so it was closer than the final margin. I thought he looked ok.

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Here are the first couple of lines from my Orginal Statement.


OK Guys CQ will be somewhere in the line of 4/5 or less. LEt me tell you a couple of reasons why I think CQ is a bet Against.

A. I have seen to many young horses over the years that have a tremendous turn of foot Sprinting only to not show that same turn of foot around 2 turns and CQ kind of reminds me of that type of horse.


B. I am not as sold as some of you guys who think CQ has a pedigree that will stretch out. And heres why 1st off CQ is out of Circle of LIfe who made 10 Lifetime Starts with a record of 10---3-1-2 of those 10 starts 4 were made running a route of ground her record in those races were 4----0-0-2 and Sprinting COL had a record of 5----3-1-0.


Read A really well that is what I thought of his races
B is just what I read Into His pedigree that he would not go long

Sorry then. I got the wrong Pedigree person. May have to go back and read Pedigree ann. I thought when you wrote your cup of coffee statement you did take your pedigree stuff to the window and win. My bad. As they say.

But I will say this. If I were really into looking into endurance in a horse I would look much more closely at the Dams side that the other way. And I have some reasons for this. Do you have reasons why when you say you disagree that a pedigree does not indicate to you a horse will "stretch out"?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

I must admit Oracle, being from New York I like your bravado, but your handicapping is primitive at best, and non-existent on its face. Yet it is your slamming of other posters with your prattle filled posts that is particularly annoying.

Just this thread you stated that: Great Hunter is one-paced, yet as a 2yo he has passed thirty horses in his six races! Hello!

Also you posted "horses with a burst of accelleration are screwed". Brilliant again.

As far as Marty McGee; years ago when I kept books, typed up owners' bills and many other duties for many Keeneland trainers such as "Rusty" Arnold, Neil Howard, Steve Penrod and others, Marty McGee would come around and I tried to teach him a bit of handicapping. Alas, he is a nice guy, but never learned much. If it wasn't for his connections, he would be in deep water.

I wish you no ill will, but be aware, your cappin needs a ton of work. BBB

Well, I must praise the Lord that you have appeared to pass along His judgement on all which is either brilliant, primitive or annoying, PRAISE be.

I'm sure Marty McGee has much to be thankful to you for as well.

How in the world can you determine and judge that someon's handicapping is worthy of you not slinging sh1t about it?

Guys like you who show up on message boards and toss around "insider" remarks and claim superiority crack me up.

Let me put it this way... if your ability was so superior, none of us would know who Hank Goldberg is. Think about that.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Let me put it this way... if your ability was so superior, none of us would know who Hank Goldberg is. Think about that.

Are you implying Hank wasn't hired for his camera presence?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Are you implying Hank wasn't hired for his camera presence?

Actually I wish that I didn't know who Hank Goldberg is !!!

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Are you implying Hank wasn't hired for his camera presence?

Actually he may have. While he is stuffing his face with hot dogs, he becomes fodder for Kenny Maine. Which can be very amusing. The Hammer hit a pik 4 though.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Curt you'll have to pardon me for not considering your opinion as good as mine on race watching and analyzing.
I saw all of Great hunter's races. Hes a one paced animal with some speed, basically a polytrack angle thats becoming obvious. In his last he had yet another no excuse suck up to horses who came back and got roasted yesterday at SA.
He had shown neither the talent nor the desire that CQ had, and if you wanna bet a grand on whether or not CQ finishes ahead of him in the Cup, please feel free to do so now. The BC will be on dirt, not tires. Anything you wanna bet just let me know. Certainly you will wanna do that if you think Hunter is a better horse right?

So there is an obvious polytrack angle that you didn't bet but are pointing out after the race? And you call me a redboarder? Give me a break. I said before the race Great Hunter was the better horse and would beat him and that is exactly what happened.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by pgardn

. And I have some reasons for this. Do you have reasons why when you say you disagree that a pedigree does not indicate to you a horse will "stretch out"?

Sure Pgardn
I deal with alot of horses every year I will have close to 100 yearlings breaking and training by the mid Nov. I have dealt with these kind of Numbers for years. I watch these horses everyday from the time we start breaking them until I send them to the races or through a sale. It is just something that is really hard to explain after watching a horse train, breeze sometimes you can just tell that this horse will be a sprinter or this horse wants to run on obviously I am not always right. I quess you could say it is just a feeling I get.

Heck it is kind of neat I have already recieved phone calls from owners wondering what I think about there yearlings just the other day I said give me a few more weeks the rider has only been on his back for a few days now.

[sumitas]

The only polytrack angle i see is when a surface is first raced over, off the pace runners have the edge until the surface tightens up. then the bias goes pooof.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So there is an obvious polytrack angle that you didn't bet but are pointing out after the race? And you call me a redboarder? Give me a break. I said before the race Great Hunter was the better horse and would beat him and that is exactly what happened.

I have a question for you...

Did/are/will you play serious money on Keeneland Polytrack races where none of the horses have any form over the surface?

I suppose it's fine to take whatever you can afford to bet and gamble on Keeneland opening week, but to me it's really pure gambling since it's impossible IMO to handicap a race where all or nearly all of the contestants have run on the type of surface Keeneland now has.

There's nothing wrong I guess with purely gambling on Polytrack races this early in the meet but I personally wouldn't confuse doing so with solid handicapping and serious wagering.

good luck.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I have a question for you...

Did/are/will you play serious money on Keeneland Polytrack races where none of the horses have any form over the surface?

I suppose it's fine to take whatever you can afford to bet and gamble on Keeneland opening week, but to me it's really pure gambling since it's impossible IMO to handicap a race where all or nearly all of the contestants have run on the type of surface Keeneland now has.

There's nothing wrong I guess with purely gambling on Polytrack races this early in the meet but I personally wouldn't confuse doing so with solid handicapping and serious wagering.

good luck.

I've been capping it as if it is a surface that plays to dirt and turf horses and that has been working quite well. I thought Great Hunter was the best horse in the race so I played him. I thought Asi Siempre was the best horse in the race so I played her. Didn't matter that one was a dirt horse and one a turf horse because it seems to play equally to horses from both surfaces. I actually like it, I got killed at Saratoga this year playing all the NY breds and claimers going to the turf for their first time and having to guess based on their pedigree whether or not they will move up. With polytrack you can assume dirt and turf horses will take to it. The real nightmare, in my opinion, is figuring out what horses that have only run on poly like the dirt and which like the turf.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I've been capping it as if it is a surface that plays to dirt and turf horses and that has been working quite well. I thought Great Hunter was the best horse in the race so I played him. I thought Asi Siempre was the best horse in the race so I played her. Didn't matter that one was a dirt horse and one a turf horse because it seems to play equally to horses from both surfaces. I actually like it, I got killed at Saratoga this year playing all the NY breds and claimers going to the turf for their first time and having to guess based on their pedigree whether or not they will move up. With polytrack you can assume dirt and turf horses will take to it. The real nightmare, in my opinion, is figuring out what horses that have only run on poly like the dirt and which like the turf.

thanks...

It's not for me, at least for now. But good luck....

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Sure Pgardn
I deal with alot of horses every year I will have close to 100 yearlings breaking and training by the mid Nov. I have dealt with these kind of Numbers for years. I watch these horses everyday from the time we start breaking them until I send them to the races or through a sale. It is just something that is really hard to explain after watching a horse train, breeze sometimes you can just tell that this horse will be a sprinter or this horse wants to run on obviously I am not always right. I quess you could say it is just a feeling I get.

Heck it is kind of neat I have already recieved phone calls from owners wondering what I think about there yearlings just the other day I said give me a few more weeks the rider has only been on his back for a few days now.

Nothing like a good eye and experience. very useful. Wish I had the chance to see young ones run more often.

[repent]

betting back beaten favs on polytrack when they return to dirt is going to be one of the more useful angles to use.
especially if they are horses who like to make one run.

I hate this stuff and refuse to play it, but I cant wait to bet Spun Sugar and CQuay in their next starts.
O'Neil so much as said that he sent Great Hunter to KEE b/c he did not want to face PSecret and Horse Greeley.
I dont know about anyone else,
but that does not give me a lot of confidence in GHunter when he goes back to dirt in the BCJ.

Repent

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

I must admit Oracle, being from New York I like your bravado, but your handicapping is primitive at best, and non-existent on its face. Yet it is your slamming of other posters with your prattle filled posts that is particularly annoying.

Just this thread you stated that: Great Hunter is one-paced, yet as a 2yo he has passed thirty horses in his six races! Hello!

Also you posted "horses with a burst of accelleration are screwed". Brilliant again.

As far as Marty McGee; years ago when I kept books, typed up owners' bills and many other duties for many Keeneland trainers such as "Rusty" Arnold, Neil Howard, Steve Penrod and others, Marty McGee would come around and I tried to teach him a bit of handicapping. Alas, he is a nice guy, but never learned much. If it wasn't for his connections, he would be in deep water.

I wish you no ill will, but be aware, your cappin needs a ton of work. BBB

Hey Bellboy, when you handicap well enough to purchase a grade one winner off the track for a client like I have, then you can hope to get in my league. How many of those you buy off the track?

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Heck Oracle I dont care all though a Piece of Cheescake would be nice right now

Pen, LOL!!, I'm on Atkins right now and I suppose thats why that wager came to mind. Though I'd rather have the pizza, ah well.
My point to Bell was that in my limited watching of the surface its become apparent to me that horses with high early speed or a huge burst of it that they rely on to win have been completely up against it. I hadn't broken down the numbers like McGee did, but in watching races, which is what I do, it had become apparent to me that horses with an even running style who rip off 12's are the ones who like it. Its kinda like a lope, lope, lope, surface.
Since most good dirt horses(if not almost all of em) rely on early speed or a huge burst of speed within the race to win, its my contention that good dirt horses are cripppled on this surface.
Now I haven't bet so much as a thin dime on one of these poly races at Kee, not one, so its not like I'm bitter about blowing any bets. But I do like to see talent recognized and I find this surface to be completely disassociated from dirt. Its a seperate and unique surface, just like grass, and horses either like grass or they don't. I've never seen one tried again and again on grass who just learn to like it. They either do or they don't.
If Circular Quay runs the same way in the BC Juvy I will be the first one to say hes a closing sprinter. If Asi Siempre runs well an even hits the board in the Distaff i will say I was wrong about her winning because of the surface. But I won't be holding my breath, and doubt that any of the winners of the weekend's BC preps on the poly at Keeneland make any kind of impact whatsoever on BC day.