NFL Draft...

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I thought the Skins a$$ raped the Raiders on that trade, and they are usually the ones on the other end of the transaction prism. 4th and 5th rounders are not picks to scoff at, they are the ones that the Eagles usually hit on. They are not a 'bag of chips' or whatever Ateam described as giving up for Santonio Holmes.

Give me a f'n break. What % of 4th rounders and above become starters? 25%? 30%? The Jets got a Super Bowl MVP for a guy who probably has a 15-20% chance to start. Draft picks after the 1st round are incredibly overvalued. Pittsburgh selected a guy named Stevenson Sylvester with the Jets' fifth round pick. Santonio Holmes for Stevenson Sylvester. Even if Sylvester becomes a starter, what's the chance he becomes as valuable as Holmes? 5% at best?

This isn't a rip on the Steelers, but spare me the "4th and 5th rounders are gold!" rhetoric.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Give me a f'n break. What % of 4th rounders and above become starters? 25%? 30%? The Jets got a Super Bowl MVP for a guy who probably has a 15-20% chance to start. Draft picks after the 1st round are incredibly overvalued. Pittsburgh selected a guy named Stevenson Sylvester with the Jets' fifth round pick. Santonio Holmes for Stevenson Sylvester. Even if Sylvester becomes a starter, what's the chance he becomes as valuable as Holmes? 5% at best?

This isn't a rip on the Steelers, but spare me the "4th and 5th rounders are gold!" rhetoric.

What is with the Super bowl MVP stuff? Dexter jackson was the Super Bowl MVP too. Holmes is a good WR but no one is confusing him with Jerry Rice

I think you are mistaken about 4th/5th rd draft picks being overvalued. Not only are there a ton of pro bowl level players drafted there (Holmes hasnt been a pro bowl level player btw) but teams get control of the players for a number of years and dont have to pay them much.

List of notable 4th/5th rounders in last 10 years (Pro Bowl selection)

Dante Hall (pb)
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (pb)
Shane Lechler (pb)
Rudi Johnson (pb)
Alex Brown (pb)
David Garrard (pb)
Randy McMichael
Scott Fujita
Rocky Bernard
Jonathan Goodwin (pb)
Bradie James
Terrance McGee (pb)
Asante Samuel (pb)
Robert Mathis (pb)
Mike Scifres (pb)
David Diehl (pb)
Dan Koppen (pb)
Shaun Phillips
Jerricho Cotchery
Nathan Vasher (pb)
Stacy Andrews
Jared Allen (pb)
Gibril Wilson
Micheal Turner (pb)
Kyle Orton
Marion Barber (pb)
Jerome Mathis (pb)
Brandon Jacobs
Kerry Rhodes
Darren Sproles
Chris Canty
Trent Cole (pb)
Owen Daniels (pb)
Max Jean-Giles
Jahri Evans (pb)
Leon Washington
Stephen Gostkowski (pb)
Brandon Marshall (pb)
Elvis Dumervil (pb)
Clint Session
Le'Ron McClain (pb)
William Gay
Brent Celek
Johnny Knox (pb)

[ateamstupid]

You listed 44 players. Out of 600+ 4th/5th rounders in the last 10 years. I guess my 25-30% estimate was generous. And yeah, Holmes totally = Dexter Jackson. Should I write 1,200-yard receiver in the prime of his career? Would that make you bristle less?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

TJ didn't want to be a backup. I'd rather have Tomlinson as a willing backup than a disgruntled TJ. Also, people continually fail to recognize that TJ ran behind the best run blocking line in the NFL and Tomlinson ran behind the worst. That's going to make a huge difference, although the Jets' run blocking got weaker with the release of Faneca. Even at his best, TJ was always a product of his blockers. If he gets 3/4 of his '09 production with Kansas City, I'd be shocked.

You really think San Diego has the worst run blocking line in the league? I think LT had a lot to do with the lack of production in the running game.

TJ is about to go over 10k yards this year and has averaged 4 ypg for a career- a career that started with one of the worst teams in the league. I think TJ is more than just a product of the line although I do agree that the Jets line certainly didnt hurt.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You listed 44 players. Out of 600+ 4th/5th rounders in the last 10 years. I guess my 25-30% estimate was generous. And yeah, Holmes totally = Dexter Jackson. Should I write 1,200-yard receiver in the prime of his career? Would that make you bristle less?

Yeah 44 players who are probowl or prominent players, I'm sure there were a lot more starters. That is basically a full team. 4th and 5th round picks arent toss aways.

Holmes is a 1 time 1200 yard guy who is getting a signifigant downgrade at QB. Being MVP of the Super Bowl because he made 1 catch hardly qualifies him for All Star status. That being said if he wasnt an off the field risk they probably would have had to give up a 3rd rounder

Of course he aint no Brandon Marshall...

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I thought the Skins a$$ raped the Raiders on that trade, and they are usually the ones on the other end of the transaction prism. 4th and 5th rounders are not picks to scoff at, they are the ones that the Eagles usually hit on. They are not a 'bag of chips' or whatever Ateam described as giving up for Santonio Holmes.

I am with Joey on this one. In the Holmes case, it was literally a bag of chips in relationship to what they received. You have to look at the contract situation in this.

Holmes's contract is over after this year. They don't have to pay a signing bonus. There is no big potential cap hit. He is signed for 755k this year, the league minimum for a 5th year player!

755k and a 5th rounder for a 26 year old in his prime for 12 games and the playoffs? Thats not even a bag chips. Thats like a single pringle.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

You really think San Diego has the worst run blocking line in the league? I think LT had a lot to do with the lack of production in the running game.

TJ is about to go over 10k yards this year and has averaged 4 ypg for a career- a career that started with one of the worst teams in the league. I think TJ is more than just a product of the line although I do agree that the Jets line certainly didnt hurt.

Football Outsiders had San Diego at the bottom of the league in numerous run blocking categories. And TJ's career numbers are irrelevant here. The point is last season, he was almost entirely a product of his blockers. If his blocks broke down, he did nothing.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Yeah 44 players who are probowl or prominent players, I'm sure there were a lot more starters. That is basically a full team. 4th and 5th round picks arent toss aways.

Holmes is a 1 time 1200 yard guy who is getting a signifigant downgrade at QB. Being MVP of the Super Bowl because he made 1 catch hardly qualifies him for All Star status. That being said if he wasnt an off the field risk they probably would have had to give up a 3rd rounder

Of course he aint no Brandon Marshall...

That's great. It's still about relative value and likelihood of success. The odds of a guy the Steelers pick at the end of the 5th round being as valuable as Holmes are extremely slim, regardless of your list of 44 productive 4th/5th rounders in 10 years. And yeah, great job with Marshall. The Jets' WR corps still blows the Dolphins' out of the goddamn water.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Yeah 44 players who are probowl or prominent players, I'm sure there were a lot more starters. That is basically a full team. 4th and 5th round picks arent toss aways.

Holmes is a 1 time 1200 yard guy who is getting a signifigant downgrade at QB. Being MVP of the Super Bowl because he made 1 catch hardly qualifies him for All Star status. That being said if he wasnt an off the field risk they probably would have had to give up a 3rd rounder

Of course he aint no Brandon Marshall...

Who is? That guy is T.O 2.0

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

755k and a 5th rounder for a 26 year old in his prime for 12 games and the playoffs? Thats not even a bag chips. Thats like a single pringle.

Like that is a given...

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Like that is a given...

The early schedule is brutal. If they can get to the bye at .500 they will be in great shape.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Football Outsiders had San Diego at the bottom of the league in numerous run blocking categories. And TJ's career numbers are irrelevant here. The point is last season, he was almost entirely a product of his blockers. If his blocks broke down, he did nothing.



That's great. It's still about relative value and likelihood of success. The odds of a guy the Steelers pick at the end of the 5th round being as valuable as Holmes are extremely slim, regardless of your list of 44 productive 4th/5th rounders in 10 years. And yeah, great job with Marshall. The Jets' WR corps still blows the Dolphins' out of the goddamn water.

No one was saying that the jets didnt get a good deal in only giving up a 5th rounder for Holmes. But as Dala pointed out this is a great deal for this year, you gotta ante up next year. We'll see how great this turns out...

Please give me a break with the jets WR corp. Droppy and the wife beater arent anything to brag about especially if Sanchez keeps throwing the ball to the other team so much. Miami doesnt have Rice/taylor but at least we have a true #1 WR.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

The early schedule is brutal. If they can get to the bye at .500 they will be in great shape.

The Jets were hardly the juggernaut that they are made out to be. They had a nice little run but the league will catch up to fatboys schemes. That offense is still pretty offensive

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Who is? That guy is T.O 2.0

Hardly. He is 100 catches in the bank.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The Jets were hardly the juggernaut that they are made out to be. They had a nice little run but the league will catch up to fatboys schemes. That offense is still pretty offensive

I don't know Chuck. Any way you cut it, that defense is going to be tough to score against. They have speed outside on offense and they have a line that blocks run with any team in the league.

I think they will be good. My only fear for them would be regression at QB. Soph QB's often regress. Even if he did, though, I think you could put a game managing type in there and they would still make the playoffs.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No one was saying that the jets didnt get a good deal in only giving up a 5th rounder for Holmes. But as Dala pointed out this is a great deal for this year, you gotta ante up next year. We'll see how great this turns out...

Please give me a break with the jets WR corp. Droppy and the wife beater arent anything to brag about especially if Sanchez keeps throwing the ball to the other team so much. Miami doesnt have Rice/taylor but at least we have a true #1 WR.

Wifebeater? Who's that? We have three guys age 26-28 on very little guaranteed money who all are capable of 1,000-yard seasons. You have one douchebag #1 WR tying up your cap who'll get shut down at least twice a year. Enjoy. And remind of me where Sanchez and Henne were in January. You'd better hope Sanchez throws 20+ interceptions again, it's your only prayer of finishing within shouting distance of us.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Hardly. He is 100 catches in the bank.

i meant it as a compliment. To me, T.O was a physical game changing wide receiver that could kill you short or long.

To me, Marshall is one of the two best receivers in the game and I wouldn't argue much with anyone saying that he is the best at this point.

[Cannon Shell]

Jets 2010 Season

Baltimore L 13-23 (sanchez throws 2 picks returned for TD's, ray lewis knocks LT out cold in 2nd quarter)

NE L 17-33 (Sanchez cant handle NE again)

@Mia L 10-34 (mismatch)

@ Buffalo L 14-17 (Bills rise up for philski, their only win of the year)

Minn L 20-31 (Farve cuts em up)

@ Denver W 27-20 (Tebow fumbles game away after Orton and Quinn injured)

GB L 7-42 (Rex fires OC after game)

@ Det W 13-10 (Lions still suck though they suck less than usual)

@ Clev W 34-14 (misguided Jet fans think they have turned the corner)

Houston W 21-20 (last second FG after Hou turnover wins it)

Cincy L 17-27 (Ochocinco's revenge, beats Cromartie for 3 TD's after Reavis is hurt again)

NE L 10-28 (reavis out, Sanchez pulled in 3rd quarter, Brady throws 4 TD's)

Miami L 23-30 (Jets score 2 TD's on special teams in garbage time to make the final score look closer than it is. marshall 16 catches, 2 TD catches, 1 run in wildcat, Jason taylor openly weeps on sideline)

Pitt L 16-31 (Holmes is shutdown, 1 catch for 9 yards)

Chicago W 40-13 (Chicago fans riot afterwards, Julius peppers goes Awol and misses game, Reavis hurt again)

Buffalo W 7-6 (voted 2nd worst game of the 2000's only better than Bills/Clev game from 2009, Sanchez QB rating for yr 71)

6-10 Rex fired

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I don't know Chuck. Any way you cut it, that defense is going to be tough to score against. They have speed outside on offense and they have a line that blocks run with any team in the league.

I think they will be good. My only fear for them would be regression at QB. Soph QB's often regress. Even if he did, though, I think you could put a game managing type in there and they would still make the playoffs.

Sanchez had a QB rating of 62. He cant possibly regress from that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Sanchez had a QB rating of 62. He cant possibly regress from that.

And we still were 30 minutes from the Super Bowl. Gonna be an angry season for you Chuck.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Wifebeater? Who's that? We have three guys age 26-28 on very little guaranteed money who all are capable of 1,000-yard seasons. You have one douchebag #1 WR tying up your cap who'll get shut down at least twice a year. Enjoy. And remind of me where Sanchez and Henne were in January. You'd better hope Sanchez throws 20+ interceptions again, it's your only prayer of finishing within shouting distance of us.

Yeah the Jets vaunted WR corp. LOL. Droppy has had 1 good season in 5. Holmes 1 good season in 5. Cotchery is underrated but hardly bigtime.