TP: Kentucky Cup Classic

[NoChanceToDance]

I have to say, i am FAR from convinced with Street Sense and in my opinion i don't think he has a hope of winning the Classic.

In my opinion he has reached as high he is going to get and could be on the downward spiral now. How anyone can say he didn't act on the Poly is beyond me. If a horse doesn't act on a surface they are beaten at the gates, simple. He acted on the poly, but he didn't battle close to the wire.

I know there was a slow pace, i know Hard Spun got an uncontested lead, but why? SS was more than capable to challenge HS early without taking much out of him.

It was the fact that Borel really got serious with SS and he found almost nil when under pressure.

We know he loves coming from a mile back and passing beaten horses in his races. That will be very difficult to do at a place like Monmouth and i can already see Boral getting slaughtered for the ride he will give on October 27th.

[Danzig]

i am hoping that many involved in the classic will think that street sense could have put pressure on hard spun, but chose not to since he had bigger fish to fry, and that hard spun will come back to them with the added distance.
and then i hope hard spun wins by a country mile.

[geeker2]

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/...TS08/709300574

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i am hoping that many involved in the classic will think that street sense could have put pressure on hard spun, but chose not to since he had bigger fish to fry, and that hard spun will come back to them with the added distance.
and then i hope hard spun wins by a country mile.

My thoughts also.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

My thoughts also.

Suppose they decided to take HS from well off the pace in the Classic..would everyone not say they took him out of his best game? Well isn't that exactly what SS has been asked to do his last two races? Race on the pace when his best game is from well off the pace... and yet he won and finished a close second.

Both are good horses and it should make for a great Classic..may the best horse win..but probably some obscure longshot will win in a head scratcher!

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Suppose they decided to take HS from well off the pace in the Classic..would everyone not say they took him out of his best game? Well isn't that exactly what SS has been asked to do his last two races? Race on the pace when his best game is from well off the pace... and yet he won and finished a close second.

Both are good horses and it should make for a great Classic..may the best horse win..but probably some obscure longshot will win in a head scratcher!

Good horses should be capable of winning races from any sort of position given luck in running. I don't like the fact that so many of the "top" American horses HAVE to be ridden in a certain way if they are going to perform at their best.

I like tactical races, as most of our races are tactical, and i'm pretty sure that (even though SS might be best when closing) Borel would have been murdered by the media over here for giving Hard Spun such an easy lead. Whether it was a prep or whatever, i thought the ride was dreadful if i'm honest. He got within half a length early on....... how much more would it have taken out of him to make HS go one or two strides faster, even if it was just for a furlong or two?

One thing is for sure, SS won't have an easy time closing in the classic.

As Danzig said, i've got a funny feeling that everyone will give HS an uncontested lead, just assuming he will come back to them over 10furlongs. There is every chance that he will steal it from the front and leave everyone else looking rather stupid.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I like tactical races, as most of our races are tactical, and i'm pretty sure that (even though SS might be best when closing) Borel would have been murdered by the media over here for giving Hard Spun such an easy lead. Whether it was a prep or whatever, i thought the ride was dreadful if i'm honest. He got within half a length early on....... how much more would it have taken out of him to make HS go one or two strides faster, even if it was just for a furlong or two?

One thing is for sure, SS won't have an easy time closing in the classic.

As Danzig said, i've got a funny feeling that everyone will give HS an uncontested lead, just assuming he will come back to them over 10furlongs. There is every chance that he will steal it from the front and leave everyone else looking rather stupid.

Boy..that scenario never happen before when HS faced more than a limited # of starters. He had plenty of company upfront..I find it hard to believe that is how it will play out in the Classic.

But PEACE..understand your point of view.

[Bobby Fischer]

Hard Spun isn't bothered by cheap company and his ideal cruising speed is more of a time thing than a positional thing.


Cruising Speed" 111 - 112 The 6furlong goal for Hard Spun in a classic distance route regardless of position.(LanesEnd,Derby,Haskell,Kycup)

Cursing Speed: 109 or 115. Unexpected fractions that incite the handicapper to start shaking fist and cursing the jockey. (Preakness, Belmont)

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You think after seeing what he did in the Derby and what he did yesterday, that people are going to give Hard Spun a clear lead in the Classic? I say no way. I also think it's a bit too premature to declare that Street Sense won't have a easy time closing in the Classic. Why not? We have no idea how the track will play.

Again, I don't know how plainly I can put this. Nafzger is an old school kind of trainer, in the sense that he points for a race and is not that disappointed if the horse loses in the prep for the race. The prep is just that, a prep. I'm not sure he'll win the Classic. But Nafzger has done this to perfection twice, so I'm confident we will see a Street Sense that is 100% come October 27th. The stuff about getting Street Sense more involved early is ridiculous. That's NOT his running style and what sense does it make to dramatically change a horses running style to win a prep that ultimately isn't your goal? None.

I'm just not a fan how top horses in America are trained, i suppose. Prep upon prep and one, maybe two 'proper races' in a year.

Why get Street Sense involved early......why not?? I get so fed up with these so called "brilliant" horses that have to have a race run to suit. If that is the case, the horse isn't "brilliant" at all. He got within half a length early on and stayed there for quite a while. Why not let out an inch of rein? Could it have done that much harm..... ofcourse not!

I wasn't talking about how the track will be riding, but Monmouth is a tight track (correct me if i'm wrong). SS got very, VERY lucky in the Derby with the passage he got (it opened up like the red sea). If Borel hadn't got the initial gap in the Derby it is almost certain he would have finished at best mid division. The same tactics won't always work to perfection.

I seriously think Hard Spun will get it fairly easy on the lead, mainly because everyone else seems to think he won't get home over ten furlongs. It will be difficult, but not as difficult as it will be for Street Sense in my opinion.

[miraja2]

Each of these horses has run (I believe) 3 races beyond 9f on the dirt.
Street Sense in the Derby, Preakness, and Travers.
Hard Spun in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.
Based on what I saw in those six efforts, I would find it difficult to ever pick Hard Spun over Street Sense beyond 9f on the dirt. In fact, I think there would have to be absolutely no early speed in the race for me to even consider it.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I get so fed up with these so called "brilliant" horses that have to have a race run to suit. If that is the case, the horse isn't "brilliant" at all.

I don't think anybody is saying that Street Sense is the second coming of Citation. I am a pretty big fan of the colt, but I certainly recognize that he has definite limitations. He isn't a horse that "can do it all" and I think anybody with an ounce of common sense can see that fact.
I like his past efforts and I think he could have a good shot in the BCC, but that doesn't mean that I think he is the Horse of the Decade. This need to figure out whether every horse deserves to be called "brilliant" or not seems a bit pointless.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Let me ask you, does it make any sense to take a horse that is a speed horse and rate him back away from his preferred running style? So why isn't it the same with a horse that prefers to come from off the pace? This may be a news flash to you, but horses have preferred running styles. Closers prefer to come from off the pace and horses with speed prefer to be up close. Stevie Wonder can see what Street Sense's prefered style is. For some reason, you know better than Nafzger and want him to do something else. It's laughable.

No one called Street Sense brilliant. he's not. He's a very good horse, who has won 3 of the most prestigious races in his generation. Hard to take that away. I don't know why it is so hard to understand this.

And the Derby stuff is old, like the "I'm not a fan of how American horses are trained" attitude. Good horses make good trips. Many, many horses had the same opportunity to come up that same rail that he did. No one else did. To say if he doesn't ride the rail, he finishes mid pack is crazy. Since Novemeber of last year I've been hearing about if Street Sense doesn't get this.... Well, he has proven A LOT of people wrong. How much did you bet on Street Sense yesterday, because your arguement stinks of a disgruntled gambler. And Hard Spun will not be loose on the lead. Again, Stevie Wonder can see what the horse can do when allowed to be on the lead alone. Not going to happen..

Oh crap.
I posted my comments a minute after you posted this, but without seeing what you wrote. I think I will be accused of being in a club with you now.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Your club dues are due this week. Don't forget to send them in.

Does the fact that I think Da Hoss (the actual horse) is one of the more overrated horses in the last twenty years get me kicked out?

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Let me ask you, does it make any sense to take a horse that is a speed horse and rate him back away from his preferred running style? So why isn't it the same with a horse that prefers to come from off the pace? This may be a news flash to you, but horses have preferred running styles. Closers prefer to come from off the pace and horses with speed prefer to be up close. Stevie Wonder can see what Street Sense's prefered style is. For some reason, you know better than Nafzger and want him to do something else. It's laughable.

No one called Street Sense brilliant. he's not. He's a very good horse, who has won 3 of the most prestigious races in his generation. Hard to take that away. I don't know why it is so hard to understand this.

And the Derby stuff is old, like the "I'm not a fan of how American horses are trained" attitude. Good horses make good trips. Many, many horses had the same opportunity to come up that same rail that he did. No one else did. To say if he doesn't ride the rail, he finishes mid pack is crazy. Since Novemeber of last year I've been hearing about if Street Sense doesn't get this.... Well, he has proven A LOT of people wrong. How much did you bet on Street Sense yesterday, because your arguement stinks of a disgruntled gambler. And Hard Spun will not be loose on the lead. Again, Stevie Wonder can see what the horse can do when allowed to be on the lead alone. Not going to happen..

I just felt that Borel made a half hearted attempt to rush up Hard Spun but then decided to take a pull, as if he was in two minds. In these sort of races, where it is obviously no problem if the horse wins or not, why is it so much of a no no that they see if he can run closer to the pace early? That is what is so different between racing in our countries. When a race is known to be that tactical, the tactics of horses are often changed so they can experiment in a "prep" race, what is lost if the horse doesn't win, but still gets a good run under his belt? In my opinion, nothing. Why not use these races to experiment?

But then coming into the straight, Borel really got very serious with Street Sense.... but this was just a "prep", right? In my opinion, he got more serious in the saddle than Pino did on Hard Spun. The ride just didn't make any sense to me.

To answer your question, no, i didn't bet Street Sense, i didn't play this race at all.... mainly because i fancied Hard Spun but i did wonder whether they would experiment a little with Street Sense.

Well, watching the Derby over and over again, i cannot see how he would have got anywhere near the lead if it wasn't for the rail run. True, no one else went for it and Borel decided to try his luck, and fair play to him.

I apologise that i do not agree with you, but there was really no need for the Stevie Wonder comments.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Your club dues are due this week. Don't forget to send them in.

hossy...I keep thinking you are drugs

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm way better looking. Way.

so you say....how the phuck would I know?

[Danzig]

the fact that hard spun had a lead in the derby and then finished second is the reason i feel he may be left alone in the classic. of course, like the derby, he may not finish in front...
again, as in the derby, if anyone else tries to go with him early, they won't finish well. he won't either, but it could cost any other speed the race. difference is, there won't be a twenty horse field, not as many traffic issues, and street sense won't be the only one closing.
should be a heck of a race.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Good points Danzig. I'm not interested in "crowning" anyone. If you want to go ahead and crown Street Sense, then then crown him! But if Danzig is right and Street Sense is who we think he is, then a month from now, at 12-1 Hard Spun has a good chance to establish position, that could be on the lead, it could be sitting just off the pace, plus with that Danzig, Turkoman Breeding, what if the track comes up sloppy? Hard Spun is worth a play to finish in the top 4, and like all members of this 3 year old crop they seem to run their races every time. AGS, SS, Tiago, Curlin and HS all seem to run their races.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Half That, you mean to tell me he is going to be 6-1 or less. Last year Invasor was the 3rd choice at 6.7-1, Lava Man was 6-1 as the 2nd choice.

You have to assume a full 14 horse field, because this raceis like the Derby they will run if they can. Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron, Curlin and Hard Spun can not all mathematically be under 6-1 impossible. Assuming Lawyer Ron runs first today he is automatically the first or 2nd choice, if Curlin wins he is in the top 3 with Street Sense and AGS. There is no way 4 horses will be under 6-1 now it is possible that it is like the derby when the favorite is higher than 3-1.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Your probably right about closer to 6-1. And a lot does depend on what happens today. But odds will be higher on everybody than you think, plus I forgot to throw in Tiago and Awesome Gem, a lot of horses will fall between 5-13 to 1.. I will say 8-1.