Met Mile field?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I love when horses get lucky trips and people say "they made the trip."

It warms my heart.

When you pass 16 horses without leaving the rail, on a slightly rail-favoring track, you can't rationally say the horse gets sole credit for "making the trip."

Of course Street Sense gets some credit for accelerating fast enough to get through before holes got to close on him....

He's already proven what he's capable of (fastest Beyer in BC Juvie history) when he gets that trip.

This is what I'm talking about!!! Bad, mediocre, and most good horses cannot switch gears fast enough to take advantage of said positions, thereby "creating" a good trip. The first thing I do after the Derby is determine how legitimate the winner will be in the Preakness, and I cannot make an argument for anyone in the race besides Hard Spun, regardless of what you think the trip was. The only knock I have against Street Sense is whether his obvious love for Churchill translates to Pimlico. Incidentally, I'd love to book all the bets on Curlin in the Preakness who supposedly had a rough trip in the Derby.

Saturday was rail favoring? I must have been watching a different track.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line, and this is really tiresome, is that only one horse in the Derby ran arguably as well as Street Sense and that's obviously Hard Spun. Good trip or not, nobody was even close, and Street Sense was, under no circumstances, worse than second best. In the BC Juvenile, where obviously he had a great trip, he won by ten lengths and was clearly the best horse regardless.

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Nobody is denying that Street Sense had a good trip. However, you seem to be the only one in denial that he's clearly at the top of this class ( even if he may have mild company ).

My points exactly.

[philcski]

Just as aside, as this is the Met Mile thread, I got a huge figure for the Westchester (what equates to a 114 Beyer), and this is even doing something I don't normally do- breaking out the route races as they were exceptionally fast all day. Once this was done, the other two mile races fell perfectly in line with the runners' capabilities and the Westchester remained fast.
Basically the figure indicated Sun King ran back to the '06 Met Mile, and Utopia was just better. Take it for what it's worth. I'm crossing my fingers it's a good number more for the sake of Sun King than my own wallet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Please link me to where I said Street Sense was anything less than 1st or 2nd best?

His previous two races, with that exact same trip, were AT LEAST as good as his Derby performance. He won the Juvenile by double digits with a record figure in one---and was perhaps the only 3yo ever to run a triple digit Beyer, off a layoff, going two-turns on the demanding Tampa Downs surface.

EVERYONE knows what kind of horse he is with that trip (an excellent horse) however, from watching films of his races when he did not have that trip, I believe he has bad habits, and will run alarmingly unimpressive, if he has to rally wide without a pace setup.

The fact that he ran better than arguably all but zero or one horse---it has nothing to do with my belief that this horse will have problems when he can't skate inside of horses.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line, and this is really tiresome, is that only one horse in the Derby ran arguably as well as Street Sense and that's obviously Hard Spun. Good trip or not, nobody was even close, and Street Sense was, under no circumstances, worse than second best. In the BC Juvenile, where obviously he had a great trip, he won by ten lengths and was clearly the best horse regardless.

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Nobody is denying that Street Sense had a good trip. However, you seem to be the only one in denial that he's clearly at the top of this class ( even if he may have mild company ).

Great post.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just as aside, as this is the Met Mile thread, I got a huge figure for the Westchester (what equates to a 114 Beyer), and this is even doing something I don't normally do- breaking out the route races as they were exceptionally fast all day. Once this was done, the other two mile races fell perfectly in line with the runners' capabilities and the Westchester remained fast.
Basically the figure indicated Sun King ran back to the '06 Met Mile, and Utopia was just better. Take it for what it's worth. I'm crossing my fingers it's a good number more for the sake of Sun King than my own wallet.

Wow. Thanks for the info Philcski. I am suprised you had the Westchester that fast, but some good info to use going into the Met Mile.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Please link me to where I said Street Sense was anything less than 1st or 2nd best?

His previous two races, with that exact same trip, were AT LEAST as good as his Derby performance. He won the Juvenile by double digits with a record figure in one---and was perhaps the only 3yo ever to run a triple digit Beyer, off a layoff, going two-turns on the demanding Tampa Downs surface.

EVERYONE knows what kind of horse he is with that trip (an excellent horse) however, from watching films of his races when he did not have that trip, I believe he has bad habits, and will run alarmingly unimpressive, if he has to rally wide without a pace setup.

The fact that he ran better than arguably all but zero or one horse---it has nothing to do with my belief that this horse will have problems when he can't skate inside of horses.

I do not think SS had a great trip in the Tampa Bay Derby. The rail was DEAD DEAD DEAD all day, and he dug in and held off a game AGS. The Bluegrass didn't seem like and ideal trip, and he ran well. We can also see now that they were not going to push the horse to much in that race, as it was just a extended workout for the Derby for him.

Furthermore, SS did not have ideal trips in his two races (at Arlington and Keeneland) before the BC Juv. He was still running gamely in those races, losing by less then 2 lengths in both of those races.

I do not think you have backed up any of your comments with any original insightful, well thought out material, just biased opinion.

[blackthroatedwind]

I hear ya, and understand what you are saying, but what's interesting is that in a way you seem to be jacked up to point out truths about Street Sense in case he is being ridiculously praised like recent relatively undeserving TC race winners. He's pretty much not being overhyped. Nobody seems to be declaring him the next superhorse. He's a good horse, who ran well in a race where his trip worked out for him, and now has to prove he can duplicate his best races on a track other than Churchill Downs. However, it's not as though his races at other tracks are clunkers.

Aside from the fact that I have liked Street Sense for a long time it is nice to see him praised sanely and rationally. Perhaps after the disappointments of recent years people are holding their irrationality in check. Unfortunately, however, all hell may break loose in ten days.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ARyan

I do not think you have backed up any of your comments with any original insightful, well thought out material, just biased opinion.

Another poster just did a job of wrongfully painting me as someone who views these things in a biased manner. If you believe that, you're wrong.

Please do me a favor, and back up your comment that the rail was dead on Tampa Derby day with the same "original insightful, well thought out material" that I failed to produce.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear ya, and understand what you are saying, but what's interesting is that in a way you seem to be jacked up to point out truths about Street Sense in case he is being ridiculously praised like recent relatively undeserving TC race winners. He's pretty much not being overhyped. Nobody seems to be declaring him the next superhorse. He's a good horse, who ran well in a race where his trip worked out for him, and now has to prove he can duplicate his best races on a track other than Churchill Downs. However, it's not as though his races at other tracks are clunkers.

Aside from the fact that I have liked Street Sense for a long time it is nice to see him praised sanely and rationally. Perhaps after the disappointments of recent years people are holding their irrationality in check. Unfortunately, however, all hell may break loose in ten days.

I agree, and here is a follow up question to what you are saying;

IF Street Sense does pull off a TC, will it be diminished because this crop is being labeled as less then steller?

Just curious...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ARyan

I agree, and here is a follow up question to what you are saying;

IF Street Sense does pull off a TC, will it be diminished because this crop is being labeled as less then steller?

Just curious...

Yes and no. It would also depend on how he accomplishes it.

Seattle Slew probably beat worse, or relatively similar horses, and wasn't criticized. Of course, he overcame Jean Cruget, which was an insane accomplishment in its own right.

Considering how elusive the TC has proved recently I am hesitant to knock anyone that does it now.....though I am relieved Smarty Jones didn't get it done.

But, maybe I'm just biased again, as I do really like Street Sense.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Please do me a favor, and back up your comment that the rail was dead on Tampa Derby day with the same "original insightful, well thought out material" that I failed to produce.

I just got back from my excersize and am bummed out.....

I give you a lot of credit for ducking me on that.....

Even Zhuge Liang would have had an almost impossible time convincing anyone that the rail was dead that day---let along "DEAD DEAD DEAD."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear ya, and understand what you are saying, but what's interesting is that in a way you seem to be jacked up to point out truths about Street Sense in case he is being ridiculously praised like recent relatively undeserving TC race winners. He's pretty much not being overhyped. Nobody seems to be declaring him the next superhorse. He's a good horse, who ran well in a race where his trip worked out for him, and now has to prove he can duplicate his best races on a track other than Churchill Downs. However, it's not as though his races at other tracks are clunkers.

Aside from the fact that I have liked Street Sense for a long time it is nice to see him praised sanely and rationally. Perhaps after the disappointments of recent years people are holding their irrationality in check. Unfortunately, however, all hell may break loose in ten days.

I'm glad you like him....and I'm not so sure the fact you've made money on him in the past doesn't have something to do with you liking him....as I've been very defensive in favor of horses who've done the same for me.

I can also be very wrong about this horse---as I'm basing my opinion of how he will run while wide and without a setup, on evidence that isn't nearly as solid as I'd like for it to be.

Liking a horse is one thing...and disliking a horse is one thing...but I take pride in making what I believe to be fair judgements when I analyze a race.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I just got back from my excersize and am bummed out.....

I give you a lot of credit for ducking me on that.....

Even Zhuge Liang would have had an almost impossible time convincing anyone that the rail was dead that day---let along "DEAD DEAD DEAD."

March 17th
Tampa Bay Downs

Race 1
The #3 horse gets the lead easy, no crazy fractions, starts to pull away on the rail and then quickly tires and is passed by #1 horse who took a 3 wide path from 4th to pass everyone and wins by 3/4.

Race 3
#10 horse races wide around the track to pass all at the top of the stretch and wins in hand while those on the rail all drift back 1st through 4, #10, #9, #7, #8. All raced off the rail.

Race 6

The horse on the lead at the top of the stretch is in the 3 path, a horse on the inside looks to make a move after sitting on the rail and can't do anything, meanwhile 2 horses pass the leader from the 4 and 5 paths.

Race 7

Horse draws away from the 3 path on the lead, horse on 5 path finish one two, while two challangers who were in contention in the stretch fail miserably on the rail and 2 path.

Race 9

The 2 horse comes 6 wide around the turn to blow by the leader who was in the 4 path. Nobody on the rail does anything but get passed.

Race 10

The 5 horse, 7/2 has a prime position turning for home, gets to the rail and is swallowed up by 3 horses running from the 4 path out, to finish a well beaten 5th on the rail.





Go take a look yourself champ;

http://tampabaydowns.com/DailyReplays.aspx

Only one winner all day on the rail besides SS, and he was a HUGE fav.

Want to make another unproven claim?

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm glad you like him....and I'm not so sure the fact you've made money on him in the past doesn't have something to do with you liking him....as I've been very defensive in favor of horses who've done the same for me.

I can also be very wrong about this horse---as I'm basing my opinion of how he will run while wide and without a setup, on evidence that isn't nearly as solid as I'd like for it to be.

Liking a horse is one thing...and disliking a horse is one thing...but I take pride in making what I believe to be fair judgements when I analyze a race.

From you, that is laughable from the evidence I can gather.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ok....I like all the races you skipped. Did you know, that of the nine dirt races on the card, the biggest priced winner paid $8.20...and Street Sense was not only one of three horses to win while racing inside...but he was also won of three horses to win..who wasn't the post time favorite.

Race #1- 6/5 favorite breaking from post #1 wins. 3/1 2nd choice breaking from posts #3 makes the lead and finishes 2nd.

Race #2- 9/5 shot winner broke from post #1 and raced on the rail throughout.

Race #3- 6/5 favorite wins easily after making a sweeping 3-wide move. So far, three races...three favorites.

Race #4- 8/5 favorite gets loose on the lead, and goes wire-to-wire winning by 12+ lengths. 4 races 4 winning favorites.

Race #5- TURF

Race #6- 4/5 favorite wins with sweeping three wide turn move. 5 dirt races, 5 winning favorites....a few near the inside a few wide.

Race #7- 3/1 shot goes wire-to-wire. First non-favorite to win all day pays a whopping $8.20

Race #8- 3/1 winner (pays $8.00) breaking from post 2, splits horses, and wins with closing tactics.

Race #9- Turf

Race #10- Even money favorite wins with stalking tactics. 3-to-4 wide.

Race #11- Turf

Race #12- Tampa Derby, 6/5 shot Street Sense, one of the few post time favorites who doesn't win all day, wins saving ground all the way. He wins off the layoff, over the very demanding tampa surface...AGS had a prep over it, which is why he was 3/5.

Race #13- Turf

You had nine races....and the biggest winner all day long paid $8.20! Horses won from the inside, the outside, they won stalking, closing, a couple went wire-to-wire.

Was there a HUGE HUGE HUGE bias....or was it just a case of the best horses winning?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ARyan

Race 9

The 2 horse comes 6 wide around the turn to blow by the leader who was in the 4 path. Nobody on the rail does anything but get passed.

Race #9 was a turf race...and the two horse won wire-to-wire...I assume you were refering to the 8th race.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ok....I like all the races you skipped. Did you know, that of the nine dirt races on the card, the biggest priced winner paid $8.20...and Street Sense was not only one of three horses to win while racing inside...but he was also won of three horses to win..who wasn't the post time favorite.

Race #1- 6/5 favorite breaking from post #1 wins. 3/1 2nd choice breaking from posts #3 makes the lead and finishes 2nd.

Race #2- 9/5 shot winner broke from post #1 and raced on the rail throughout.

Race #3- 6/5 favorite wins easily after making a sweeping 3-wide move. So far, three races...three favorites.

Race #4- 8/5 favorite gets loose on the lead, and goes wire-to-wire winning by 12+ lengths. 4 races 4 winning favorites.

Race #5- TURF

Race #6- 4/5 favorite wins with sweeping three wide turn move. 5 dirt races, 5 winning favorites....a few near the inside a few wide.

Race #7- 3/1 shot goes wire-to-wire. First non-favorite to win all day pays a whopping $8.20

Race #8- 3/1 winner (pays $8.00) breaking from post 2, splits horses, and wins with closing tactics.

Race #9- Turf

Race #10- Even money favorite wins with stalking tactics. 3-to-4 wide.

Race #11- Turf

Race #12- Tampa Derby, 6/5 shot Street Sense, one of the few post time favorites who doesn't win all day, wins saving ground all the way. He wins off the layoff, over the very demanding tampa surface...AGS had a prep over it, which is why he was 3/5.

Race #13- Turf

You had nine races....and the biggest winner all day long paid $8.20! Horses won from the inside, the outside, they won stalking, closing, a couple went wire-to-wire.

Was there a HUGE HUGE HUGE bias....or was it just a case of the best horses winning?

You are seriously unbelievable. Two horses won that day coming from the inside, that's it. Just because a horse breaks from the inside does not mean he came through on the rail to win, correct?

Who said anything about favorites? Was not this a discussion of if the rail was live or dead? Are you trying to baffle us with bull$hit, or are you really just that befuddled?

Seems to me that you even proved my point with you meandering explination of races. You never said anyone closed on the rail to win! So prove me wrong, where was the proof of a live rail, or at least a rail that was not dead?

You really showing what kind of muttonhead you truly are.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Race #9 was a turf race...and the two horse won wire-to-wire...I assume you were refering to the 8th race.

Yes, thank you for picking up that error. In the 8th, what happend again? He won closing on the rail that was dead right? Oh wait, no, he stayed off the rail and won. Who's point are you trying to prove here?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I believe the track was fair to all paths and styles. Simply, the best horses won race after race after race.

You said that there was a HUGE HUGE HUGE bias....there was no extreme bias on this day. Sometimes, the best horse wins.

Lighten up with the name calling...just because someone disagrees with you, doesn't mean you have the right to hurl insults at them for it.....but hey, we all know I'm above name calling.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I believe the track was fair to all paths and styles. Simply, the best horses won race after race after race.

You said that there was a HUGE HUGE HUGE bias....there was no extreme bias on this day. Sometimes, the best horse wins.

Lighten up with the name calling...just because someone disagrees with you, doesn't mean you have the right to hurl insults at them for it.....but hey, we all know I'm above name calling.

Again, laughable. How was the track fair to all paths? Nobody but Street Sense was able to close on the rail. NOBODY! Only one horse, who was much, much the best won leading on the rail the entire race.

When you can go back and prove that other horses finished better on the rail then others, and show that with charts or video evidence, then you will have proven that the rail was not dead. Do that, and you will prove your point. The problem is, no horse was able to gain any ground on the rail all day long, except for Street Sense. Sorry, but I really think you are just fighting a losing battle here.

Just come out and say, "Hey, I don't like Street Sense, I like (whoever) better, and I feel that the Preakness will show this." Do not say things you are unable to give evidence for. Hey, I liked NoBiz before the Derby, but you do not see me making every excuse in the book for him. I was just flat out wrong, in a big way.

Also, way to AGAIN deflect from the true argument. You again try to take away from the fact that you can not back up your opinion.