southwest stakes 2/19

[Sightseek]

Talk about GREAT racing luck...they scratch Teuflesburg for a bad post last week and then steal this race with a perfect shot out of the 4 hole and no one out to challenge him.

Very happy to see one of my faves of the crop win...but hope the connections realize this victory was completely circumstantial...

[Getaway]

Hard Spun is still a very nice horse but if his form today is any indication of what he can do in May, I'm gunna go out on a limb and say he is NOT the Derby winner. Every horse has a bad day, and this could have been his. Wide trip or not, if he was in top form, he should have been the winner. Last year's Derby winner overcame the 10 hole at Gulfstream, and we all know who that was. The point I am getting at is that you can't blame the wide trip for getting beat that badly. I can see if he was a little closer to the winner...but getting solidly beat by Teuflesberg??

[slotdirt]

Honestly, why would this race even remotely matter to Hard Spun's connections? It's not like there were graded stakes earnings involved here. The Rebel/Arky Derby are the real races in store for Hard Spun.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

he had a absolutely brutal trip from the opening bell breaking a little bit slow and it continued in the first turn. not to mention he also had to do something hes never done to date which is not be on the lead and you could tell he absolutely did not like it on the backstretch if you payed attention. in the end under the circumstances i dont think the horse ran a bad race at all and showed hes got some guts to him and was only beaten 3 for all of it

[Gander]

Theres always Fingerlakes and Turfway Park. Nothing wrong with those tracks.

[Danzig]

shame to see that hard spun lost-i like the horse...but they all lose eventually, don't they?
beaten three lengths total i believe, i was held up at work and missed the race. i know the post was a concern, and i know it was his first race that he wasn't on the lead. i was thinking if he was going to lose, today would be the day to go ahead and get it out of the way!
who knows what he'll turn out to be, or any of those currently 'prepping'--still kills me that every and any race involving three year olds is a derby prep, but that's life.
i still think he's a good horse, just maybe not a classic horse-definitely not a miler from the nine hole horse!!

[The Bid]

The best horse won the race. His quality should have never been in question, hes always been top class, from the way he looks, to the way he moves, to the way he acts. He is a top class racehorse and it couldnt happen to nicer people.

[jpops757]

If Hard Spun is a derby horse, Problems with the 9 hole in this less than stellar field should have been no problem. What kinda problem can they expect in a 20 horse field?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Bid

The best horse won the race. His quality should have never been in question, hes always been top class, from the way he looks, to the way he moves, to the way he acts. He is a top class racehorse and it couldnt happen to nicer people.

I definitely agree he is one of the nicest looking horses in training BUT there are certain races this horse is not meant for. Remember their was a much bigger margin of defeat in Hard Spun's favor last they met...which shows Mr. T needs the race to go just his way.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jpops757

If Hard Spun is a derby horse, Problems with the 9 hole in this less than stellar field should have been no problem. What kinda problem can they expect in a 20 horse field?

maybe he's not a derby horse-suits me fine, then maybe they won't rush him to the shed quite so quickly!

yeah, riiiight. everyone's looking for the next top danzig in the shed.

as for the nine hole, it was a mile race-and the nine hole has been won from once all year in a mile race. all horses, other than colin or personal ensign, lose. many come back and win again-not necessarily the derby, but somewhere.

i remember a horse running a couple years ago against a bunch of 'nags'. he finished up the track when everyone expected him to win by daylight. his trainer was furious that they had sealed the track before the race, and used that as an excuse. that horse came back and won the belmont stakes over a previously undefeated horse-birdstone also won the travers that year. they all lose on occasion. the question will be what he does next...

[quote=Danzig188]shame to see that hard spun lost-i like the horse...but they all lose eventually, don't they?/QUOTE]

Not Personal Ensign. undefeated forever !

[smartyalex]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

as for the nine hole, it was a mile race-and the nine hole has been won from once all year in a mile race. all horses, other than colin or personal ensign, lose. many come back and win again-not necessarily the derby, but somewhere.

you're correct, the 9 post has won only once out of nineteen (.05%). But what might as well be stated is that the 4 post had only won three of thirty nine (.08%). Not all that much better.

[The Bid]

I think his way is dictating the pace. He doesnt want to be rated and choked down to stalk. Hes the kind you just let roll, he settles himself when hes comfortable. The biggest difference in the 2 races for the Berger were the rides. He got a cute choked down ride from Robby, While Stew just let him roll

Jock today said he never asked for his best, please leave me on, this is a serious horse. Drank 2 sips of water after and wasnt blowing

Smarty, OR ran well

[brianwspencer]

this is just great. this will get sanders to further her delusional thinking with this horse. now that he's won a two-turn race, they will expect him to continue doing so.

sadly, they will keep running this horse into the ground, and he doesn't belong with the top 3yo runners at route distances at all.

the race today fell in his lap because all the circumstances went his way. now they'll get some confidence in him and keep throwing him in races expecting him to perform like this again.

i'm not the one who said he didn't belong in here.

but i will be the one to say Tueflesburg doesn't belong on the TC trail at all, and it will show up in a big way from here out like it has in every other route race of his career until today when everybody left him alone and inherited the win.

good thing, is hopefully he'll be overbet next out, and he'll have a snowball's chance in hell at repeating this effort around two turns.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

this is just great. this will get sanders to further her delusional thinking with this horse. now that he's won a two-turn race, they will expect him to continue doing so.

sadly, they will keep running this horse into the ground, and he doesn't belong with the top 3yo runners at route distances at all.

the race today fell in his lap because all the circumstances went his way. now they'll get some confidence in him and keep throwing him in races expecting him to perform like this again.

i'm not the one who said he didn't belong in here.

but i will be the one to say Tueflesburg doesn't belong on the TC trail at all, and it will show up in a big way from here out like it has in every other route race of his career until today when everybody left him alone and inherited the win.

good thing, is hopefully he'll be overbet next out, and he'll have a snowball's chance in hell at repeating this effort around two turns.

Why don't you tell us how you really feel, Brian? LMAO

While I don't feel that Teuflesberg is a true 10 furlong horse, he's definitely a NICE colt and don't be surprised to see him winning a lot more this year. He moves better than ANY 3-year old I've seen run yet this year. I absolutely adore this horse and I think there are far worse contenders on the derby trail right now. If he belonged to me, I would keep running him in sprints, because I think that's where he does best. The blinkers being off of him had a huge effect today as well as he seemed more relaxed... just my take.

[blackthroatedwind]

I've seen some overbet horses in my day, but the odds on Hard Spun today really took the cake, as if this was a random race on a Thursday, and names meant nothing, he would have barely been the favorite. He had run exactly one OK race and that one fell into his lap as much as today's win by Teuflesburg.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smartyalex

you're correct, the 9 post has won only once out of nineteen (.05%). But what might as well be stated is that the 4 post had only won three of thirty nine (.08%). Not all that much better.

They ran a 9-runner stake for 3yo fillies at this track yesterday, at the same exact distance, and the Chester House filly breaking from post 9 won with complete authority.

While, having that far outside draw with a short run to the first turn isn't ideal, the best horse should be able to overcome it.

HS was reportedly sick between this start and his last start---and, as I figured going in, he would be taken out of his game tactically today. Even with legit excuses like that, running off-the-board in a race like that is a letdown, when you consider all the hype surrounding this horse.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They ran a 9-runner stake for 3yo fillies at this track yesterday, at the same exact distance, and the Chester House filly breaking from post 9 won with complete authority.

While, having that far outside draw with a short run to the first turn isn't ideal, the best horse should be able to overcome it.

HS was reportedly sick between this start and his last start---and, as I figured going in, he would be taken out of his game tactically today. Even with legit excuses like that, running off-the-board in a race like that is a letdown, when you consider all the hype surrounding this horse.

I just watched the replay again and he doesn't appear to be moving very well, either. I hope nothing is wrong with him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I just watched the replay again and he doesn't appear to be moving very well, either. I hope nothing is wrong with him.

Something is wrong with him....he's not that fast.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Something is wrong with him....he's not that fast.

Yawn. Not many are so far.