What does it take to make a living at punting?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least we now know the secret to your success....you have apparently accepted Christ.

Those of us that actually follow horse racing are likely to be more interested in Steve Crist. But, hey, to each his own. Certainly the dribble being expelled by this poster will need divine intervention.

You tell 'im chief. You'ze really on your game today.

Here's a question for you (or anyone else) I really don't know the answer to:

In a 19% takeout pick 4 pool (Keeneland Fall) , what would you say the equivalent per race takeout to be?

Does it go like this: (1+x) * (1+x) * (1+x) * (1+x) = 1.19, solve for x. ??

Thanks,

#1 Fan

[Gander]

You have him confused with Beyer.

Oops. Sorry, I remembered you writing soemwhat recently and thought you were talking about Steve Christ. So its Beyer. Its a bit more mild in DC but still not a great climate to bike 12 months a year. He probably has some high tech equipment in his home for those not so nice months.

* Notice I dont use first names only because I know I am not an insider.
No name dropping from me.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.

Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 (sample size of 30) but the median would probably be two thirds of that.

Philski Can you explain "You will never hit a $3000 pick 4 on a ticket structured (4 x 3 x 2 x3) or any other structure for that matter. I of course read Christ's book but he did not coin the logic, rather his contribution was in the "A" selections "B" selections etc. which I did not go into, but certainly use.

Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good. I am certain a reasonably competent handicapper ( not named Matt Carrothers) could hit ten percent of their plays with a $48 ticket, as for getting the $3,000 go back to Christ and the "A" "B" etc. BBB

Because you cannot possibly pick up enough "prices" going 2, 3, or even 4 deep to attain a $3,000 pick 4. Good luck in your fantasy world, I hope to join you there someday. I hear money grows on trees and beer flows from the showerheads!

That reminds me... Christ was born 3 days from today. Merry Christmas!

Originally Posted by philcski

Because you cannot possibly pick up enough "prices" going 2, 3, or even 4 deep to attain a $3,000 pick 4. Good luck in your fantasy world, I hope to join you there someday. I hear money grows on trees and beer flows from the showerheads!

That reminds me... Christ was born 3 days from today. Merry Christmas!

I disagree. I hit a $2,000 pick 4 on a $36 ticket. All you need is Mike Smith to win.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.

Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 (sample size of 30) but the median would probably be two thirds of that.

Philski Can you explain "You will never hit a $3000 pick 4 on a ticket structured (4 x 3 x 2 x3) or any other structure for that matter. I of course read Christ's book but he did not coin the logic, rather his contribution was in the "A" selections "B" selections etc. which I did not go into, but certainly use.

Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good. I am certain a reasonably competent handicapper ( not named Matt Carrothers) could hit ten percent of their plays with a $48 ticket, as for getting the $3,000 go back to Christ and the "A" "B" etc. BBB

A sample size of only 30 races is not nearly a big enough sample. Even if you use average rather than median, I still think that the average payoff at most of those tracks is well under $2,000.

With regard to the question of whether a person should use the "average" or the "median" payoff when trying to figure out whether these bets are profitable or not, I think that if a person plays really big tickets and they can use a lot of big longshots, then it would be fine to use the average payoff. But if you're playing $48 tickets, you should probably use the median payoff because you're not going to be able to spread all that deep, so it's going to be very tough to hit any of the huge payoffs. If the median payoff is $1,500, you would make a lot of money if your $48 tickets could hit 5% of the time.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

[quote=bellsbendboy]JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.

Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 use.

Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good.....


lol the 800 play where he singled in a hopeless bunch,,where it was clear any of the 3 contenders could win.....lmfao..

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have him confused with Beyer.

His hair always looks like he just rode 26 miles on a bike.

[Rupert Pupkin]

[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.

Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 use.

Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good.....


lol the 800 play where he singled in a hopeless bunch,,where it was clear any of the 3 contenders could win.....lmfao..

The more I think about it, the median payoff for a $1 pick 4 has got to be much lower than I was thinking. If you look at all the tracks that were mentioned and you looked at the last 1,000 pick 4s, the medain payoff is the one that comes right in the middle. That mean there would be 500 payoffs under that number and 500 payoffs over that number. There is no way that out of 1,000 $1 pick 4s, that there would be 500 of them that would pay over $1,500. I doubt there would even be 300 of them that would pay over $1,500. The median would be nowhere near $1,500. The median would be closer to $800.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Here's a question for you (or anyone else) I really don't know the answer to:

In a 19% takeout pick 4 pool (Keeneland Fall) , what would you say the equivalent per race takeout to be?

Does it go like this: (1+x) * (1+x) * (1+x) * (1+x) = 1.19, solve for x. ??

I’ve been meaning to think about this, so I’ll give it a shot. I believe you have to start with some assumptions. I like to start with simple assumptions.

Let’s say you have a Pick 4, and you like a horse in each race. Each of your horses has 25% of the pool bet on it, and each of these 4 horses actually has a 25% chance to win the race.

You have 2 choices. You can bet $2 on the first horse and if it wins you parlay the amount you collect into a bet on the 2nd race. And so on, with the 3rd and 4th races. OR, you can bet a $2 Pick 4.

Let’s further assume that these 4 horses have been bet “correctly” in the Pick 4 pool. Because each horse has a (1/4) chance to win its race, the odds of winning the Pick 4 are (1/4)^4 = 0.39%. So the 4 horses you like have 0.39% of the Pick 4 pool. With 19% takeout, a $2 payoff would be $414.

So the question is, what kind of win-bet takeout would give you a $414 payoff on a 4-race parlay? The answer is 5.1%. I got that by stepping through the 4 races. With 5.1% takeout, the $2 payoff from the first race is $7.59 (I’m ignoring breakage, for this) Take that $7.59 and bet the 2nd race, and the payoff is $28.80. The payoff on the 3rd race would be 109.29. And on the 4th race, $414. (same as a Pick 4 with 19% takeout)

There’s probably a simple way to express that, but it’s not jumping out at me. It’s not the formula S2S suggested. That formula yields 4.4% for “x”.

I’m pretty sure that it doesn’t matter in my calc that the odds are the same for each race. But it does matter that the odds in the Pick 4 pool are in line with the odds of each race.

There are numerous caveats. It doesn’t really make sense to talk about the “effective takeout”, unless you were going to bet all 4 races anyway. That is, if you would normally pass 1 or more of the races, then you are not getting the same benefit from the Pick 4.

The biggest caveat is that it’s entirely possible I’ve made an error in my math or my procedure above. I'm very open to corrections or a more general solution.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

Ask Tiger Woods. He likes people to think he makes his money off winning golf tournaments and endorsements, but he makes the majority of his money off gambling on horses. His average bet is between $1,500 and $3,000 and he usually hits 3-4 out of every 10 bets returning an average of about $92,000 per year.

Its noble work you do Tiger, we tip our hats to you.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Gander

Ask Tiger Woods. He likes people to think he makes his money off winning golf tournaments and endorsements, but he makes the majority of his money off gambling on horses. His average bet is between $1,500 and $3,000 and he usually hits 3-4 out of every 10 bets returning an average of about $92,000 per year.

Its noble work you do Tiger, we tip our hats to you.

That's Mr. Woods buddy.

[Gander]

Notice I didnt say just "Tiger". I used the man's full name.

I am not a golf insider either.

I miss Arromanches.

Philcski Merry xmas to you

I do not create value by spreading, or picking up enough prices as you term it. I look for top heavy (something to five) favorites that do not figure.

The 7th today at FG is a good example. Codes Destiny was favored in her last at even money after winning her debut. I determined she had beat nothing and was very vulnerable. I played a 2x2x2x3 ticket eliminating her. The $2 parlay came back about $700 but the $2 pick 4 returned some $2600!
The winners paid $5 , $17 , $7 , and $8. www.nola.com/forums/startinggate/ post #7479

The largest pick 4 for me last year was at Keeneland. I singled Coin Silver and he paid $25 or so leading to big payoff.

Incidentally in the Fg 7th today Finally Alone qualifies as a vulnerable favorite and Codes Destiny would be no surprise. Pretty Peso the winner of the anchor leg of the above pick 4 also figures as does the bug on Camille's Choice. BBB

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least we now know the secret to your success....you have apparently accepted Christ.

Those of us that actually follow horse racing are likely to be more interested in Steve Crist. But, hey, to each his own. Certainly the dribble being expelled by this poster will need divine intervention.

the power of crist compels you....

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I disagree. I hit a $2,000 pick 4 on a $36 ticket. All you need is Mike Smith to win.

is that squirrel tired out yet??

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Philcski Merry xmas to you

I do not create value by spreading, or picking up enough prices as you term it. I look for top heavy (something to five) favorites that do not figure.

The 7th today at FG is a good example. Codes Destiny was favored in her last at even money after winning her debut. I determined she had beat nothing and was very vulnerable. I played a 2x2x2x3 ticket eliminating her. The $2 parlay came back about $700 but the $2 pick 4 returned some $2600!
The winners paid $5 , $17 , $7 , and $8. www.nola.com/forums/startinggate/ post #7479

The largest pick 4 for me last year was at Keeneland. I singled Coin Silver and he paid $25 or so leading to big payoff.

Incidentally in the Fg 7th today Finally Alone qualifies as a vulnerable favorite and Codes Destiny would be no surprise. Pretty Peso the winner of the anchor leg of the above pick 4 also figures as does the bug on Camille's Choice. BBB

What a dick move indirectly advertising for another horse racing message board. If you toot your own horn any louder it's going to cause a tsunami off the louisiana coast.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

What a dick move indirectly advertising for another horse racing message board. If you toot your own horn any louder it's going to cause a tsunami off the louisiana coast.

that was a month ago....you have put out zip here..lol..the tsunamis commin..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

What a dick move indirectly advertising for another horse racing message board. If you toot your own horn any louder it's going to cause a tsunami off the louisiana coast.

umm, I don't buy that "advertising" criticism. Everyone here doubts BBB's claims. It seems reasonable to me for him to point to the public board where he has posted his picks.

Of course, the whole thing would be more believable if there was some sort of monitoring going on there, or at a minimum, a running tally of how his picks are doing. Contrast that BBB post with what Hjib does on the Selections forum here.

A redboarding criticism would be more appropriate, since he has not linked to every losing pick post at the other site.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

Who cares? Just focus on your own tickets and be glad for anybody else who wins. People on here get far too carried away with what so and so had and what so and so selected on here. You all act like a bunch of gossiping teenagers. May we all cash lots of tickets in 2007 regardless of what we do and do not post on here before or after a race.

Arromanches!

Pillow: I am sorry if I offended you, but the naysayers were getting a little loud. I certainly am proud of my overall handicapping, but the frosting is when newcomers get something out of my prerace analysis.

Hooves: Since 11/26 I have unsuccessfully played as follows:

Dec 2nd 2 wins two seconds on a $18 play.

Dec 3rd 3 of 4 with a second on a $30 bet. In the losing leg my single blew the turn then rallied to be beat a neck at a good number.

Dec 10th 3 of 4 again with a $56 winner in the last.

Dec 17th 3 of 4 again on a $48 play (ouch) but over fifty were entered.
Will post here tomorrow if they open up the track. I do not play when it is sealed.


Dunbar I post a lot of losers. The nola site is archaic, very small and was decimated by the hurricane. Many of the regular posters literally lost everything they had. Many of them really helped me with my handicapping. So I always post a Sunday pick 4 there as a bit of a tribute, once the site came back up. On the take out question I have no clue. BBB