First 2009 March Madness thread

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The winner of the UConn/Pitt game will be a #1 for sure. Maybe the loser of that game is in danger of falling behind Memphis, but the winner has nothing to gain except the #1 overall seed.

Assuming that it's Pitt/UConn in the tournament final, yes, a sure #1 spot is guaranteed. But say UConn wins at Pitt on Saturday. If they were to beat them again in the conference title game, they could be looking at a #1 overall. But if Pitt wins Saturday and then UConn wins the final, I don't think either team can get the #1 overall. And if either team were to lose twice, especially Pitt, I don't see that team possibly getting even a #1 seed and they'd possibly fall to a low #2.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Assuming that it's Pitt/UConn in the tournament final, yes, a sure #1 spot is guaranteed. But say UConn wins at Pitt on Saturday. If they were to beat them again in the conference title game, they could be looking at a #1 overall. But if Pitt wins Saturday and then UConn wins the final, I don't think either team can get the #1 overall. And if either team were to lose twice, especially Pitt, I don't see that team possibly getting even a #1 seed and they'd possibly fall to a low #2.

I'm not talking about a Pitt/UConn final. They play this Saturday. The winner is a 1-seed.

[gales0678]

if i were pitt or uconn , i would rather play UNC in the final 4 then have to play each other again

don't think we see a piit/uconn big east final , 1 will lose

i think either team handles a UNC team that doesn't like to play defense

[SniperSB23]

Almost impossible to imagine any of Pitt, UConn, and NC as anything but a 1 seed. Oklahoma was in that same position before losing to Texas, Kansas, and Missouri in their last four. If Louisville wins the Big East tourney it would make a compelling case for the Big East getting three number 1s. If Michigan State wins their tourney they'd be likely to get the fourth spot. Oklahoma still has a chance if they can win their conference tourney. If all of them fail then it will probably wind up with Memphis by default, a team whose only wins over tourney teams would be Gonzaga and Tennessee who could be 6 and 8 seeds.

Florida-Kentucky and Minnesota-Michigan loom as a couple elimination games this week. Penn St can stamp their ticket with a win tonight against Illinois. Lose and they could be in big trouble. USC must sweep the Oregon schools at home to have a shot. Maryland needs to take care of business at Virginia and they'll probably get in. Texas A&M and Providence are both on the right side of the bubble right now but could assure themselves a spot with a big time win in their finales against Missou and at Villanova. Ohio St needs to get by Northwestern to feel good about their chances. I know everyone has UNLV in for some reason but if they can't win a tough game at San Diego State to get to 10-6 in conference they shouldn't even be in consideration. Assuming they lose how could you put them in at 9-7 in a conference that New Mexico is 12-4 and San Diego St 11-5 in? Should be an interesting couple days, especially after all the bubble wackiness the past two nights.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Almost impossible to imagine any of Pitt, UConn, and NC as anything but a 1 seed. Oklahoma was in that same position before losing to Texas, Kansas, and Missouri in their last four. If Louisville wins the Big East tourney it would make a compelling case for the Big East getting three number 1s. If Michigan State wins their tourney they'd be likely to get the fourth spot. Oklahoma still has a chance if they can win their conference tourney. If all of them fail then it will probably wind up with Memphis by default, a team whose only wins over tourney teams would be Gonzaga and Tennessee who could be 6 and 8 seeds.
Florida-Kentucky and Minnesota-Michigan loom as a couple elimination games this week. Penn St can stamp their ticket with a win tonight against Illinois. Lose and they could be in big trouble. USC must sweep the Oregon schools at home to have a shot. Maryland needs to take care of business at Virginia and they'll probably get in. Texas A&M and Providence are both on the right side of the bubble right now but could assure themselves a spot with a big time win in their finales against Missou and at Villanova. Ohio St needs to get by Northwestern to feel good about their chances. I know everyone has UNLV in for some reason but if they can't win a tough game at San Diego State to get to 10-6 in conference they shouldn't even be in consideration. Assuming they lose how could you put them in at 9-7 in a conference that New Mexico is 12-4 and San Diego St 11-5 in? Should be an interesting couple days, especially after all the bubble wackiness the past two nights.

don't think memphis beat much last year either during the regualr season and got a #1

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by gales0678

don't think memphis beat much last year either during the regualr season and got a #1

Last year they beat 7 tourney teams (including 1st and 4th place in the Big East) non-conference and only had one loss compared to three this year.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Florida-Kentucky and Minnesota-Michigan loom as a couple elimination games this week. Penn St can stamp their ticket with a win tonight against Illinois. Lose and they could be in big trouble. USC must sweep the Oregon schools at home to have a shot. Maryland needs to take care of business at Virginia and they'll probably get in. Texas A&M and Providence are both on the right side of the bubble right now but could assure themselves a spot with a big time win in their finales against Missou and at Villanova. Ohio St needs to get by Northwestern to feel good about their chances. I know everyone has UNLV in for some reason but if they can't win a tough game at San Diego State to get to 10-6 in conference they shouldn't even be in consideration. Assuming they lose how could you put them in at 9-7 in a conference that New Mexico is 12-4 and San Diego St 11-5 in? Should be an interesting couple days, especially after all the bubble wackiness the past two nights.

I totally disagree that Michigan/Minnesota is an elimination game. I think it's absolute lunacy if Minnesota gets left out, especially if Penn State gets in. What the hell else does Minnesota have to do? RPI of 32, SOS of 43, 21-8 and 9-8 in the league, no bad losses, a neutral court win over Louisville, a sweep of Wisconsin, wins over Ohio State and Illinois. Penn State has done OK in conference, but their nonconference resume is embarrassing. The only two decent teams they played (Rhode Island and Temple), they lost to. They split with Minnesota, winning by five and losing by 20. What am I missing?

I also disagree that Maryland just has to beat Virginia. They really blew a chance to cement a bid against Wake, and now they're only 3-8 against the RPI 1-50. I think they need to beat Virginia and win two games in the ACC Tournament to be seriously considered.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I totally disagree that Michigan/Minnesota is an elimination game. I think it's absolute lunacy if Minnesota gets left out, especially if Penn State gets in. What the hell else does Minnesota have to do? RPI of 32, SOS of 43, 21-8 and 9-8 in the league, no bad losses, a neutral court win over Louisville, a sweep of Wisconsin, wins over Ohio State and Illinois. Penn State has done OK in conference, but their nonconference resume is embarrassing. The only two decent teams they played (Rhode Island and Temple), they lost to. They split with Minnesota, winning by five and losing by 20. What am I missing?

I also disagree that Maryland just has to beat Virginia. They really blew a chance to cement a bid against Wake, and now they're only 4-9 against the RPI 1-50. I think they need to beat Virginia and win two games in the ACC Tournament to be seriously considered.

Minnesota is at home with everything on the line. If they can't beat a bad Michigan team in that situation the committee will not look favorably on that and they will need a B10 tourney run to have a shot. I agree with you on Penn State, they will be a weak option at 10-8 and I think there is a possibility of the B10 only getting five if Michigan knocks off Minnesota and Penn St winds up 10-8.

The committee loves the ACC, 7-9 will get you in sometimes. At 8-8 they'll be the 7 seed and just need to beat NC St in the play-in round before losing to Duke or Wake in the quarters.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Almost impossible to imagine any of Pitt, UConn, and NC as anything but a 1 seed. Oklahoma was in that same position before losing to Texas, Kansas, and Missouri in their last four. If Louisville wins the Big East tourney it would make a compelling case for the Big East getting three number 1s. If Michigan State wins their tourney they'd be likely to get the fourth spot. Oklahoma still has a chance if they can win their conference tourney. If all of them fail then it will probably wind up with Memphis by default, a team whose only wins over tourney teams would be Gonzaga and Tennessee who could be 6 and 8 seeds.

So you think that Pitt could lose to UConn on Saturday, either lose to them again in the Big East final or not even make it to the final.....and they are still a #1? With UNC, Oklahoma/Kansas, and Memphis all winning conference titles? I don't see it. Especially if Louisville were to win the Big East title.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

So you think that Pitt could lose to UConn on Saturday, either lose to them again in the Big East final or not even make it to the final.....and they are still a #1? With UNC, Oklahoma/Kansas, and Memphis all winning conference titles? I don't see it. Especially if Louisville were to win the Big East title.

Yes, they would have 5 losses, 3 to 1 seeds, 1 to a 3/4 seed, and 1 to a 10-12 seed.

Oklahoma would have 4 losses, 1 to a 2/3 seed, 1 to a 3/4 seed, 1 to a 8-10 seed, and 1 to a 2-14 team in the SEC.

Memphis would have 3 losses, 2 to 5-7 seeds, and 1 to a 7-11 team in the Big East.

Pitt not only wins on quality of wins but their 5 losses would be far better than Oklahoma's 4 losses or Memphis' 3. They'd also be ahead of both in RPI.

[King Glorious]

I couldn't see a team that wouldn't be ranked in the top eight getting a #1 seed no matter how much quality was in their losses. They are at #3 now and if they lose Saturday and again in the Big East tourney while those other teams win out, no way are the Panthers getting a #1 even though I agree with you that their losses are better and they are a better team than either Kansas, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Michigan St.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I couldn't see a team that wouldn't be ranked in the top eight getting a #1 seed no matter how much quality was in their losses. They are at #3 now and if they lose Saturday and again in the Big East tourney while those other teams win out, no way are the Panthers getting a #1 even though I agree with you that their losses are better and they are a better team than either Kansas, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Michigan St.

You can forget about Kansas, they got blown out at Texas Tech last night so now have more losses than Pitt would. And I can't see Michigan St either with equal losses and a much weaker resume. The only two that would have a shot are Oklahoma and Memphis and I don't think either should be ahead of Pitt.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You can forget about Kansas, they got blown out at Texas Tech last night so now have more losses than Pitt would. And I can't see Michigan St either with equal losses and a much weaker resume. The only two that would have a shot are Oklahoma and Memphis and I don't think either should be ahead of Pitt.

I'd say Louisville's still in the discussion if it can win at West Virginia and get to 16-2 in conference. Same goes for Duke with a win at North Carolina.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'd say Louisville's still in the discussion if it can win at West Virginia and get to 16-2 in conference. Same goes for Duke with a win at North Carolina.

I was assuming Louisville, Connecticut, and North Carolina would be the #1s under the scenario KG offered of Pitt losing twice. Then I think the fourth spot would be between Pitt, Oklahoma, and Memphis with Pitt holding the edge. Duke would still have to beat North Carolina twice to get a 1 seed which is asking a lot.

[King Glorious]

So Pitt would be lower ranked than all of them, would be without a conference title and Oklahoma, Memphis, and Michigan State would all have conference titles and Pitt would get a #1? Do you really believe that? We aren't talking about which teams are better here.

[Crown@club]

I wouldn't discount Minnesota if they lose to Michigan. I think Michigan is considered more of a quality opponent. They did beat Duke, Purdue, UCLA on the road, and gave UConn a rough time.

(They only played Mich. St. once this season. That's weird)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

So Pitt would be lower ranked than all of them, would be without a conference title and Oklahoma, Memphis, and Michigan State would all have conference titles and Pitt would get a #1? Do you really believe that? We aren't talking about which teams are better here.

Why would Pitt be ranked lower than Michigan State and Oklahoma?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Why would Pitt be ranked lower than Michigan State and Oklahoma?

If they both win out and Pitt loses to UConn on Saturday and again in the Big East tourney, I think they'd be ranked lower.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If they both win out and Pitt loses to UConn on Saturday and again in the Big East tourney, I think they'd be ranked lower.

You know Oklahoma lost last night, right? Pitt will be ahead of them and Michigan State in the final rankings before Selection Sunday. The rankings that come out the day after Selection Sunday are pretty irrelevant. And the committee doesn't care about rankings anyways.

[SniperSB23]

One thing Oklahoma does have working in their favor is that the B12 got smart and moved their tournament final to Saturday. When you have a final late Sunday the committee is largely settled on the bracket and won't make major changes. Waiting until 4 PM to see if you are going to move Oklahoma up to the one line isn't plausible with the amount of work that then needs to go into restructuring the rest of the bracket to avoid first or second rematches.