"In The Spotlight" with Dr. SwineSmeller

[GPK]

Originally Posted by geeker2

HEY HEY watch that R-elvis

Men like cats?? There's a first

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by GPK

Men like cats?? There's a first

Real Men

[GPK]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Real Men

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I disagree RBE, he is welcome here. The board has been a bit lackluster lately and this is exactly what we need.

It was the first thread I clicked on this morning. That says it all.

Rock on Pig Breath, I am highly entertained by your handicapping.

Thanks Bigsmc. I appreciate the backing from a board veteran. Some seem to hate me, some don't. I'm not trying to pee anyone off. My nature is not to retaliate though because that would be a futile effort. Only trying to write up with a little informative zest for my plays. And I keep in all in one thread so my stuff isn't strewn from one end of the board to the other.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by GPK

Tells me all I need to know about you.

I can assure you that I make my own selections GPK. If someone takes the time to shoot me a tip, I'll usually get me a little wager on it, as I have indeed put a modest $5 to Win and Place wager on Miss Storm Cat's tip. Not to mention, she touts a solid horse here too. Dr. SwineSmeller

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Second only to family and friends is my love for thoroughbreds. I can assure you that I am ever in awe of these beautiful, gallant animals Miss Storm Cat. Offense is never my objective or intention. One of the gloomiest days I've ever experienced is the day the high spirited Go For Wand tragically went down as she battled the great Bayakoa to the wire in the 1996 Breeders' Cup Distaff. I'll never forget how the simulcast crowd at Oaklawn Park went from a deafening elated cheer to dreadful silence in a second, just as everywhere else thoroughbred fans had gathered I'm sure.

And I'll get me a wager on your Masterful Miss pick. As I rarely let a tip get by me. I've slapped myself in the head to many times for watching one run by me that I was tipped on, and I try not to let that happen anymore. It won't happen to me in the 5th at Del Mar tomorrow.

Dr. SwineSmeller

Yeah, that '96 BC Distaff was REALLY tragic... only because I bet Serena's Song.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah, that '96 BC Distaff was REALLY tragic... only because I bet Serena's Song.

I was right on the rail when Bayakoa ($200w ) won and Go for Wand went down..but I wasn't at the '96 BC..hummmmm

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Results 8/10/08 Del Mar Race 6

Diamond Tags crosses the line the to SHOW for $4 with dusty britches and face full of dirt clod's that Candilejas had chunked at her and the rest when they turned for home.

I have caught a bad case of Showitis. Which helps my bankroll zilch.

Todays bet $50, return $0.
Derby Trail WPS record: 7 starts, 1-1-4 . Mythical $2 Win on each= $14 bet, $5.20 return.
Bankroll wagers to date: $208 bet, return $78.
Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by geeker2

I was right on the rail when Bayakoa ($200w ) won and Go for Wand went down..but I wasn't at the '96 BC..hummmmm

I stand corrected Geeker. Indeed it was the '90 distaff. One of the most exciting duels ever in the game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNltI2p_Mac

Narrated by Go For Wand's jockey that day, Randy Romero.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

8/8/08 Results, In The Spotlight

At Woodbine in the 8th, Skip Code PLACED at $5.90. Beaten by 19/1 Longshot Forty Creek.

At Del Mar in the 1st, Born With Eagles SHOWED at $4.60. Respectable for his first flight out of Washington.

At Del Mar in the 2nd, Dilemma WINS at $5.20. Top cowboy Gomez ropes 'em here riding a staunch faced bruiser.

Todays called wagers (and to date): $90 bet, $78 returned.

Derby Trail WPS record: 3 starts, 1-1-1. Mythical $2 Win on each= $6 bet, return $5.20. Dr. SwineSmeller

thats good stuff ..for the capping handicapped at the other 4 boards you go
on...here you best bring your 'a' game if you have one...........

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

8/11/08 Coast to Coast with Dr. SwineSmeller
Del Mar Race's 2 and 3, post 2:32 Pacific time.

Should Chocolate Lava fail to set the grass afire at Del Mar today, I'm buying a two dollar ticket on a Pacific freighter bound for Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Once there, I'm going to hike my happy @** up Mt. Kilauea and experiment with bungy jumping into Kilauea's active volcanic crater using kite string for a bungy cord. That is if I don't have to just swim out and feed myself to the California coastal great white sharks because I didn't have a lousy two dollars left in my pocket for a cheap freighter ticket. I think I can get the kite string donated. I can probably get the two dollars and the kite string donated.

Four year old filly Chocolate Lava is listed as the 3/1 second choice in this short field of five going one mile for the top Del Mar kitty of the day at $75,000. She was entered on July 28th at Del Mar, but subsequently scratched that day. Top 3 Del Mar jockey, J Rosario, is the lone ranger carrying the 124 pound top weight. Rosario will navigate the magma flow for top Del Mar trainer John Sadler. Early 8/5 favourite, Irish Bred European grass specialist Bahama Mama, may indeed be deserving of her early line, but in her first out on American soil she was disqualified, as going backwards evidently caused her to experience an acute episode of dyslexia. I'm hoping that Bahama Mama's acute dsylexic condition can be upgraded to chronic dyslexia today after she takes another right in the first turn, I hope.

Chocolate Lava is another high dollar girl, puchased at the March 06 Ocala Breeders' Sale for a hefty $400,000 by owner Mona Talla. I can't say that I'm the least bit familiar with Mona, but a blind assessment says Mona has plenty of someone's money to spend. Some well known fast racers show up in Chocolate Lava's three deep pedigree check. Her four great grandpa's include French turf champion Blushing Groom, Coxs Ridge, Deputy Minister, and Risen Star. Her sire, Orientate, won 10 of 19 lifetime starts for 1.7 million. In 14 lifetime starts, Chocolate Lava has posted a 3-2-3 mark, banking $128,000. This hot to trot babe should make a strong run for the wire today, as she appears to be sound and in a spot that suits her well.

As the gates erupt open today at Del Mar, I'll play Chocolate Lava for $50 WIN.
************************************************** ************************************************** **************************************

Race 3 looks to be a wide open event for a $25,000 maiden claiming tag. Obscure owner/trainer John Glenny entered two, scratching the 1st half in preference of the 1A half of the entry, In The Poconos. Obviously Glenny goes with the filly he thinks is best prepared here. M A Pedroza takes the reins and will break out from the 3 hole in a race where all the serious competition starts from the outside in this a field of 8. At 10/1 on the morning line, if In The Poconos can grab a ground saving trip on the rail in this two turn event, she may indeed find herself in serious contention when the field straightens for the stretch. She looks as good as any and potentially better than most on paper here, and her pedigree ranks tops along with the 5/2 favoured Shade of Moonlight.

Shade of Moonlight will a tote top weight of 124, and at four years old, she just now begins racing, putting a soundness question mark into her chart. At three years old, In The Poconos gets a 4 pound weight allowance, which can only be of aid when going a distance.

I'll play In The Poconos for $20 WIN. I'll also play a $5 exacta box coupling #1A In The Poconos with #7 Shade of Moonlight.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

thats good stuff ..for the capping handicapped at the other 4 boards you go
on...here you best bring your 'a' game if you have one...........

Howdy Hooves. You did indeed show a profit on mythical $2 Win tickets at Del Mar on the 8/10/08. $18 bet, $20.60 returned. 3 winners. Well done. I'll take a regular gander at your board. Thanks for your link.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I disagree RBE, he is welcome here. The board has been a bit lackluster lately and this is exactly what we need.

It was the first thread I clicked on this morning. That says it all.

Rock on Pig Breath, I am highly entertained by your handicapping.

You are right Bigs, my apologies - This douche just got under my skin the other day for some reason...He's not the first "over the top" windbag to come in here and make an asz of himself... they usually last about a week, after that the embarrassment sets in which seems to be the only thing that manages to deflate their ego enough to get them to crawl back into their hole...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Chocolate Lava is another high dollar girl, puchased at the March 06 Ocala Breeders' Sale for a hefty $400,000 by owner Mona Talla.

Chocalate Lava is a 4 year old who has raced 14 times. How does her sales price from over two years ago enter in to the equation for her chances today.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

I think I can get the kite string donated. I can probably get the two dollars and the kite string donated.

This is the most solid pick yet...you may be on a roll

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Chocalate Lava is a 4 year old who has raced 14 times. How does her sales price from over two years ago enter in to the equation for her chances today.

[Dilemma wins, 8/8/08 In The Spotlight][quote]>.... Dilemma..... not much wonder as to why Dilemma is favoured early on here...... purchased for a lofty $650,000 as a yearling That's an automatic class edge.....genealogy.....at four years old has made 10 lifetime starts, ....

with nostrils flaring and ears laid back like a mad cat...... http://www.pedigreequery.com/dilemma3

>>If one guy has ten $50,000 Keenland Sale horses and another guy has ten $400,000 Keenland Sale horses, and they match race all ten, I know which ten I'm betting.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[otisotisotis]

you must be the Green Monkey's #1 fan.....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Dilemma wins, 8/8/08 In The Spotlight]>.... Dilemma..... not much wonder as to why Dilemma is favoured early on here...... purchased for a lofty $650,000 as a yearling That's an automatic class edge.....genealogy.....at four years old has made 10 lifetime starts, ....

with nostrils flaring and ears laid back like a mad cat...... http://www.pedigreequery.com/dilemma3

>>If one guy has ten $50,000 Keenland Sale horses and another guy has ten $400,000 Keenland Sale horses, and they match race all ten, I know which ten I'm betting.

Dr. SwineSmeller

on your ridiculous hypothetical match-up, with no other information upon which to base my wager I'd go with the $40,000 horses because as a group they will most likely have a better ROI than the other group because of people like yourself who will overbet horses based on things like breeding, sales price, and connections. you must have flushed a ton on The Green Monkey.

I'll try again, what correlation is there between Chocolate Lava's '06 sales price and her chances of winning today? why was it something you felt helped to make the case for her today?

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

on your ridiculous hypothetical match-up, with no other information upon which to base my wager I'd go with the $40,000 horses because as a group they will most likely have a better ROI than the other group because of people like yourself who will overbet horses based on things like breeding, sales price, and connections. you must have flushed a ton on The Green Monkey.

I'll try again, what correlation is there between Chocolate Lava's '06 sales price and her chances of winning today? why was it something you felt helped to make the case for her today?

Howdy Arlington Jim. To answer directly...Yes, I do think it has something to do with this race in particular. Given the sub-stakes level of the race, a $75,000 AOC event, which is a nice purse nonetheless, a $400,000 baby that appears sound looms large at this class level in my eyes. Chocolate Lava may not win, of course. Bahama Mama was a $175,000 purchase in Europe and looks better on paper than Chocolate Lava, and may indeed take the wire here. But I see Lava indeed as legitimate high bred game here.
Many years ago as I preached away from the Daily Racing Form concerning past performances, a very old fellow said to me in earnest, "Son, paper doesn't race, it just offers you the lowest possible price on the board". The more I thought about his euphemistic statement, the more I realized he was right.

PS> Call me superstitious, but I never have and never will bet a horse named Monkey anything.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Howdy Arlington Jim. To answer directly...Yes, I do think it has something to do with this race in particular. Given the sub-stakes level of the race, a $75,000 AOC event, which is a nice purse nonetheless, a $400,000 baby that appears sound looms large at this class level in my eyes. Chocolate Lava may not win, of course. Bahama Mama was a $175,000 purchase in Europe and looks better on paper than Chocolate Lava, and may indeed take the wire here. But I see Lava indeed as legitimate high bred game here.
Many years ago as I preached away from the Daily Racing Form concerning past performances, a very old fellow said to me in earnest, "Son, paper doesn't race, it just offers you the lowest possible price on the board". The more I thought about his euphemistic statement, the more I realized he was right.

PS> Call me superstitious, but I never have and never will bet a horse named Monkey anything.

she will always be a $400K purchase no matter how many times she races or how poorly. it has no relation to her current form relative to the rest of the field today. this $400K baby took nine tries to break her maiden and had to ship out to Fairplex to get it done.

the old mans advice was wrong about paper, it only offers you the facts. Its up to you to interpret the facts and decide who to bet on. what do you think you are doing by betting on horses because of the sales price? do you think you are alone doing that and its some magical way to find value?

she may win today, I doubt it, but whether she does or not is not influenced by how much someone was willing to pay for her two years ago.