Big Brown

[Quiet Chris]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Look for a much larger crowd than what you are saying.

NO WAY. The weather and the fact that nobody really cares about the race might keep it below 7500. Last weekend they got 2500, I wouldn't expect anything more than 10K. Nobody cares about Big Brown running against a bunch of grade 2 grass horses.

Now if he showed up for the JCGC, Belmont probably would get 25K for the Curlin-BB matchup.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Quiet Chris

NO WAY. The weather and the fact that nobody really cares about the race might keep it below 7500. Last weekend they got 2500, I wouldn't expect anything more than 10K. Nobody cares about Big Brown running against a bunch of grade 2 grass horses.

Now if he showed up for the JCGC, Belmont probably would get 25K for the Curlin-BB matchup.

Will you give me 8-1 odds that it is north of 10,000?

[Quiet Chris]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Will you give me 8-1 odds that it is north of 10,000?

It is impossible because the announced attendance and the real attendance won't be the same thing. If Curlin can only get 10K at Belmont, BB is going to basically do the same, but weather might even drive it lower.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

While most on here agree that this year's crop of three year olds haven't been that teriffic, that still does not stop me from starting yet another Big Brown thread.

Because while this is still 2008, he has been the best horse for horse racing this year. Curlin may be faster, but we don't know that. We do know that Curlin cannot draw a crowd or have near the fan base that Big Brown does. So Big Brown was much needed for this sport. At least for this year.

Despite his contraversial connections, the Belmont/Triple Crown disappointment, or the slight win over the out of gas apprentice Coal Play in the Haskell, the popularity of Big Brown has not really lost his luster. Afterall the $200K Monmouth Stakes on Saturday is $500K only because the infamous Big Brown is entered. The Haskell saw their best attendance in years because race fans wanted to see Big Brown.

Arguably only Barbaro and maybe Smarty Jones have garnered more fan attention than Big Brown in the past so many years. With the exception of his past two races, the rest were all WINS and have been extremely impressive. Winning from the posts he had at FL DERBY and KY Derby is worth a salute to this horse.

So while I have an affection for Big Brown, I am also sad as his racing career is nearing the end. Most likely he has two races to go including the BCC. Of course I hope he wins them both.

I guess I was wondering your thoughts on how Big Brown left his mark on the 2008 season? Was he good for horse racing?

There's a lot to debate on this one. Let's talk about the popularity. While Barbaro's story became very gripping and appealed to everyone, his popularity as a race horse didn't really happen until after the breakdown. At the derby he was one of those horses that had a shot to win. As far as Smarty Jones is concerned Big Brown nor any horse in a long long time doesn't come close to being as popular as Smarty Jones. The numbers alone prove that point. Big Brown was popular because of the antics of his ridiculous connections. He's a nice horse, but to rate him in popularity in the same league as SJ or Barbaro is ridiculous.

I'm not real sure about the crowd thing, the Haskell always draws as many people as they can put in that place regardless of who is running.

Depending on where Curlin races after the Jockey Club will determine HOY, but right now there is a filly on the West Coast that if she wins out, will win HOY in my opinion, because I don't think BB wins today or in the BCC.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Anyone betting Big Brown in that field at the price he will be needs to rethink their paramutuel involvement in the game.

I don't know about you, but I prefer that kind of money in the pools.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Samarta

There's a lot to debate on this one. Let's talk about the popularity. While Barbaro's story became very gripping and appealed to everyone, his popularity as a race horse didn't really happen until after the breakdown. At the derby he was one of those horses that had a shot to win. As far as Smarty Jones is concerned Big Brown nor any horse in a long long time doesn't come close to being as popular as Smarty Jones. The numbers alone prove that point. Big Brown was popular because of the antics of his ridiculous connections. He's a nice horse, but to rate him in popularity in the same league as SJ or Barbaro is ridiculous.

I'm not real sure about the crowd thing, the Haskell always draws as many people as they can put in that place regardless of who is running.

Depending on where Curlin races after the Jockey Club will determine HOY, but right now there is a filly on the West Coast that if she wins out, will win HOY in my opinion, because I don't BB wins today or in the BCC.

i would think curlin is still #1 in everyones book for HOY. zenyatta would have to take on and beat the boys in the bcc to win the award. and if curlin misses, i don't know that she'd catch him then. i think everyone understands why curlin won't go west, and i don't think anyone will hold it against him for not going.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Once again, I'm tosssing "BB" facing older with a yielding to soft turf...no way! Going with Drum Major & Silver Tree,
plus using Get Serious, Kiss the Kid & Hotstufanthensome underneath in the exotics. 7/11 - 7/11 - 2/5/8 -2/5/8

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i would think curlin is still #1 in everyones book for HOY. zenyatta would have to take on and beat the boys in the bcc to win the award. and if curlin misses, i don't know that she'd catch him then. i think everyone understands why curlin won't go west, and i don't think anyone will hold it against him for not going.

Well but you don't win HOY on potential. I understand why they probably aren't sending him to the BCC but if Zenyatta wins her next race then the Distaff, BB doesn't win the BCC Zenyatta wins HOY. I think Curlin is the best horse out there, but if he skips the classic I think the only way he wins HOY is for BB and Zenyatta to lose.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i would think curlin is still #1 in everyones book for HOY. zenyatta would have to take on and beat the boys in the bcc to win the award. and if curlin misses, i don't know that she'd catch him then. i think everyone understands why curlin won't go west, and i don't think anyone will hold it against him for not going.

If Big Brown wins today and BCC, is he HOY? If so, who would win Eclipse?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Samarta

Well but you don't win HOY on potential. I understand why they probably aren't sending him to the BCC but if Zenyatta wins her next race then the Distaff, BB doesn't win the BCC Zenyatta wins HOY. I think Curlin is the best horse out there, but if he skips the classic I think the only way he wins HOY is for BB and Zenyatta to lose.

i disagree. mineshaft still got hoy after skipping the bcc on the west coast. zenyatta beating the distaffers won't be enough to knock off curlin.
the only way it gets interesting is if big brown wins the classic.

i suppose you saw that now iavarone is claiming he's considering runnning big brown next year? seemed tho to be news to paul pompa and three chimneys.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

If Big Brown wins today and BCC, is he HOY? If so, who would win Eclipse?

not necessarily.
well...then again, yeah he probably would when you consider who does most of the voting for the eclipse-many voters only pay attention twice a year, and big brown won the derby, so if he was to win the bcc, yeah he probably would get it.

i just don't see zenyatta getting it if big brown loses-not unless she contests the classic. the distaff is on friday now, not much coverage-most eclipse voters probably haven't heard of her, but have heard of curlin.

and that's the #1 problem with eclipse awards-the way they go about awarding them.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

not necessarily.
well...then again, yeah he probably would when you consider who does most of the voting for the eclipse-many voters only pay attention twice a year, and big brown won the derby, so if he was to win the bcc, yeah he probably would get it.

i just don't see zenyatta getting it if big brown loses-not unless she contests the classic. the distaff is on friday now, not much coverage-most eclipse voters probably haven't heard of her, but have heard of curlin.

and that's the #1 problem with eclipse awards-the way they go about awarding them.

OK let's forget about HOY for a moment. Is Big Brown a lock for Eclipse even if he doesn't win today or BCC. Please tell me he is a lock. Four Grade 1 Stakes wins including KD and Preakness.

My argument here is Afleet Alex (one of my top 3 All Time favorites) won the Eclipse. Hasn't Big Brown at least equaled that resume?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

OK let's forget about HOY for a moment. Is Big Brown a lock for Eclipse even if he doesn't win today or BCC. Please tell me he is a lock. Four Grade 1 Stakes wins including KD and Preakness.

My argument here is Afleet Alex (one of my top 3 All Time favorites) won the Eclipse. Hasn't Big Brown at least equaled that resume?

he'll most likely get the eclipse for three year old. but keep in mind a horse wins that every year, it doesn't mean they are deserving of special praise. certainly afleet alex deserved it that year. doesn't mean he was anything particularly special-same with big brown.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he'll most likely get the eclipse for three year old. but keep in mind a horse wins that every year, it doesn't mean they are deserving of special praise. certainly afleet alex deserved it that year. doesn't mean he was anything particularly special-same with big brown.

Now I'm going to shift gears yet again. Nobody will convince me to not bet on Big Brown to win today. So since I am so stubborn, (based on only liking him) if money weren't an object, do you think my best bet in that scenario is to key him at the top of a trifecta with every other horse in the race? I think I would win more than betting him across the Board (provided he does indeed win).

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Now I'm going to shift gears yet again. Nobody will convince me to not bet on Big Brown to win today. So since I am so stubborn, (based on only liking him) if money weren't an object, do you think my best bet in that scenario is to key him at the top of a trifecta with every other horse in the race? I think I would win more than betting him across the Board (provided he does indeed win).

so why ask?
some people do across the board bets, others don't care for them. if you're that convinced he'd win, like dahoss said, build a multi-race bet around him as your lone single-altho if there was a day to look to bet against, today is it. he's in deeper today than ever, and his last few to many eyes is nothing like what he ran early in the spring. so if he's on a downhill cycle, or a flat one, he's really up against it today.

as for your tri, i'd imagine anyone who is infatuated with big brown would do the same bb/all/all as you, so i don't see it really paying off for you.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Who cares who wins the eclipse? As a fan of the horse do you get something special if he wins?

If you are determined to bet him, use him in multirace plays. Pick3 or pick 4 if it's offered. Single him and try and catch a price, it's the only way to make any money on him IMO. But, I would suggest just watching the race. You seem to have elevated him to some kind of iconic status in your mind. So, if he wins, I'm sure you're going to be happier than Sumitas at the breeding shed. And if he loses, at least you haven't pissed away your money on a bad favorite.

i don't know why people get so involved with it-a discussion is one thing, repeated posts stating a position on it is another. getting hot under the collar about it is another.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i disagree. mineshaft still got hoy after skipping the bcc on the west coast. zenyatta beating the distaffers won't be enough to knock off curlin.
the only way it gets interesting is if big brown wins the classic.

i suppose you saw that now iavarone is claiming he's considering runnning big brown next year? seemed tho to be news to paul pompa and three chimneys.

If Big Brown wins the Classic that takes all the suspense out of it. I disagree about Zenyatta. I'll say it again, if Curlin skips the class, Big Brown loses the classic and Zenyatta finishes the year undefeated with a win in the distaff, she is HOY.

[Danzig]

you can say it as many times as you like, i would still disagree. azeri is the only mare to ever win hoy without facing males, but that was a year with no clear cut top male horse. this year is nothing like that. if big brown loses, curlin will get hoy, regardless of what zenyatta does. curlin may well get it even if big brown wins the classic-if big brown should lose today.

[dalakhani]

I put the 2 to get a minor piece and underneath on the exacta

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by Danzig

you can say it as many times as you like, i would still disagree. azeri is the only mare to ever win hoy without facing males, but that was a year with no clear cut top male horse. this year is nothing like that. if big brown loses, curlin will get hoy, regardless of what zenyatta does. curlin may well get it even if big brown wins the classic-if big brown should lose today.

You really believe that Curlin could still win HOY if Big Brown wins the classic?