7/30: Saratoga (Day 7; C/O)

[Kasept]

Week 2 kicks off with a $42k carryover after Monday's wild bombfest, and Wednesday card looks challenging. Reversed a multi-year trend of starting this meet slowly before finishing strong, and am unsure how the good opening week, thanks to robust P4 hit, will impact my own play. I cannot recall getting up this much so early during Saratoga, and have a very placid mood going through cards right now. That is making me hopeful that the knowing that the meet is 'made' will result in good decision making going forward...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES...

1st: Ninepin Novice, 4+, 16.5f-National Hurdles (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dynaski 5-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Discreet Charmer 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 C R's Deputy 7-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Seer 5-1 2nd

$1 EXA Paid $13.70


2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Akilina 5-2 WON
Next Best: #3 Glory Gold 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 SCR
Super Add: #5 Sneakin Up 6-1 2nd

$1 DD Paid $8.00
$1 EXA Paid $9.00


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kapanga 4-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Queenofalldiamonds 7-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Madam Bling 8-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Sophisticated Lass 15-1 5th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key #7 1st-2nd-3rd with 3-5-8-9-10 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x 3 = 180 x .10 = $18.00)

$1 P3 Paid $21.70


4th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #5 Hailey's Hero 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Storm Boot Gold 2-1 WON

$1 EXA Paid $17.90
$1 P3 Paid $21.70


5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dougie 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Sweet Groom 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Ziptronic 6-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Double Domino 7-2 WON

$1 EXA Paid $22.70


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-8
3: 3-7-9
4: 5-7 ($1 P3 Paid $21.70)
5: 1-2-3-5-8-10 ($1 P3 Paid $40.50)

2x3x2x6 = $72

$1 P4 Paid $102.75


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Giant Storm 9-2 6th
Best Value: #1 SCR #7 Sky Dragon 8-1
Next Best: #9 Borobudor 8-1 2nd


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Into the Wind 3-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Veritable 5-1 10th
Best Value: #6 SCR #12 Najibe's Time 12-1 5th
Super Add: #1 (POE) Frenchman's Cove 8-1 7th


8th: The De La Rose, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Carriage Trail 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 SCR #11 Long Approach 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Stormy West 3-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Lady Carlock 12-1 4th

$1 DD Paid $28.50


9th: The Fleet Indian, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ice Cool Kitty 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Sagamoon 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Talking Treasure 5-2 WON


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Valiant Humor 9-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Who Can Bluff 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 SCR #10 Tomlinson Hill 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 SCR #5 Sapphire Eyes 5-1 4th

$1 EXA Paid $15.30



<$150 P6 Play:

5: 8-10
6: 2-7-9
7: 7
8: 4
9: 1-3-7
10: 1-9-10

2x3x1x1x3x3 = 54 x $2 = $108


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-7-8-12
8: 4
9: 1-5-7 ($1 P3 Paid $59.00)
10: 1-2-5-9-10 ($1 P3 Paid $41.50)

5x1x3x5 = $75

$1 P4 Paid $170.50

Good luck!
Steve

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-8
3: 3-7-9
4: 1-5
5: 1-3-8-10

2x3x2x4 = $48

Agree wholeheartedly with you on the bookends of that pick four, but can't make heads or tails of the third or fourth.. If Kapanga had some more early speed to her, she'd be a single for me, but I'm worried she'll be at the mercy of the frontrunners.

[blackthroatedwind]

You agree on the bookends?

Congratulations.....you have outdone yourself for saying that First Defence was better than Commentator. The last leg is a field of 12 NYBs, 10 of which are first time starters, trying the turf for the first time ( save the Leo O'Brien horse ) yet you " wholeheartedly " agree with Steve's four selections?

Which one of you is Kreskin?

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me just add that I had to make four selections for Talking Horses tomorrow....and not one of my picks are the same as Steve's. Now, that's no criticism of Steve, and may be a good sign for him, but it does point out the total randomness of " handicapping " that race.

But, what do I know, as you are confident in that race but confused in the others.

If Bobby Frankel saw this thread two plus months ago you would have saved him a lot of trouble and First Defence could have been frolicing in a field for some time now.

[ateamstupid]

I understand that the fifth is a scrum, but I found it interesting that I chose the same four horses Steve did. That's all.

I feel comfortable using those four horses in the pick four, and the $16,000 claimer confuses me. Sorry if that bothers you.

I thought First Defence would develop into a top flight sprinter and I was wrong. I wish you wouldn't act like nothing I say has merit because of that wrong opinion, but if you feel the need to invalidate everything I say, go ahead.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

5 - 3, 5, 8
6 - 3, 4, 6, 7, 9
7 - 8, 10, 11, 12
8 - 4
9 - 1, 5, 7
10 - 3, 4, 9

$1080

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I understand that the fifth is a scrum, but I found it interesting that I chose the same four horses Steve did. That's all.

I feel comfortable using those four horses in the pick four, and the $16,000 claimer confuses me. Sorry if that bothers you.

I thought First Defence would develop into a top flight sprinter and I was wrong. I wish you wouldn't act like nothing I say has merit because of that wrong opinion, but if you feel the need to invalidate everything I say, go ahead.

I loved the highlighted part. Stick to the tough guy routine....it suits you much better.

I get it.....and if you guys found the same random four horses it is pretty funny ( and statistically amazing ). It's pretty amazing that I landed on four completely different horses as well. It's also funny that I included Saratoga Steve.....and neither of you guys did. For what it's worth, his second dam was a strong turf move up producer, and I am particularly partial to her foals as I made a score on one a few years ago when Mig won with her at 30:1 in its turf debut. The horse was Faraway Legend but you probably remember her sister, Call Nine One One, a little better. Western Fable is a full to two or three turf winners and the dam of Mr. Petersson won 123K on the turf while going 5 for 9 on that surface. He's also a half to Exonerated who exploded in his turf debut...sprinting at Belmont a couple of months ago.

That's a reasonable amount of turf breeding for a NY Bred 2YO turf sprint and also three tough horses to completely leave out of any play. One, or even two, maybe....but all three?