12/12: AQU - $206,0000 Carryover

[TitanSooner]

Originally Posted by Scav

Wouldn't have beat the 7 today but he ran well, given he blew the first turn and then looked dead and came flying with a little trouble.

Good job Titan on the hit.....

thanks.. actually feeling kind of sick to my stomach now.. couldn't bring myself to 'really' pull the trigger earlier.

at least I caught the p4 a few times.

[blackthroatedwind]

First of all, congratulations to Titan Sooner. Great job.

Now, for those that wonder why some people have occasional problems with seemingly odd performances by Gary Contessa trained runners, I suggest they take a good long look at the future Kentucky Derby ( and probable Triple Crown winner ) that just won the NY Bred finale. Earlier on the card, Ricardo A, another Gary Contessa runner, somewhat suprisingly galloped versus OK older claimers, at a somewhat surprisingly low 2-1. Well, that's OK, Ricardo A has run some decent races in the past, and is capable of Beyer figs in the low to mid 90s. However, the mighty Wishful Tomcat just ran a full second faster than Ricardo A. Now, don't give me " he was loose on the inner " argument....because so was Ricardo A. However you want to cut it, the performance by Wishful Tomcat is the kind that make horseplayers angry....to say the least. It's inexplicable.

[TitanSooner]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

By which horse(s)?

By the way, props go to CJ.. you're figs are the best!

[declansharbor]

Great job Titan!!!

[Heels1989]

Excellent run Titan. Congrats.

[blackthroatedwind]

Take a look at the pps for tomorrow's 8th race and take a good luck at Missile Motor, a 4YO gelding that Contessa claimed off Bruce Levine, and explain to me his 111 first time off the claim. Don't give me the mud, because he's run in the mud before, and his figures are consistent with his dry track races.

Where do these performances come from?

[Scav]

This could be fun tonight

[blackthroatedwind]

It's not fun. You've got a 14% trainer who's horses seem to run, at random, Grade 1 races....before slipping off routinely into oblivion.

Mr. Contessa is so impressed with Missile Motor's 111 ( over a length faster than the number Midnight Lute earned in winning the BC Sprint ) that he is offering him tomorrow for the same $50K price he was in for before his Grade 1 effort.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Take a look at the pps for tomorrow's 8th race and take a good luck at Missile Motor, a 4YO gelding that Contessa claimed off Bruce Levine, and explain to me his 111 first time off the claim. Don't give me the mud, because he's run in the mud before, and his figures are consistent with his dry track races.

Where do these performances come from?

I think it made it pretty obvious I thought the horse was a lock in the finale. But a Secretariat like score? Come on, this is getting ridiculous.

Great job, Titan!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's not fun. You've got a 14% trainer who's horses seem to run, at random, Grade 1 races....before slipping off routinely into oblivion.

Mr. Contessa is so impressed with Missile Motor's 111 ( over a length faster than the number Midnight Lute earned in winning the BC Sprint ) that he is offering him tomorrow for the same $50K price he was in for before his Grade 1 effort.

I agree it isn't fun, but nothing will ever change. It won't change until they go to a baseball type penalty system, and horse racing gets one governance system, otherwise, we are all wasting our breath.

It is amazing how many baseball players SHRUNK in a matter of months because of the impeding penalties on cheaters, it is equally amazing how the HR numbers lowered for the comedy players. I think the same would happen if those type of stances were taken in horse racing

[Kasept]

Congrats to Titan on a superb effort... Send along the address for a prize pack!

[TitanSooner]

Thanks Steve.. will do.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's not fun. You've got a 14% trainer who's horses seem to run, at random, Grade 1 races....before slipping off routinely into oblivion.

Mr. Contessa is so impressed with Missile Motor's 111 ( over a length faster than the number Midnight Lute earned in winning the BC Sprint ) that he is offering him tomorrow for the same $50K price he was in for before his Grade 1 effort.

111 is, what, top 15 or so sprinting for the year? I don't track the NY figures but it is truly unbelieveable. In the horse's defense and not necessarily Contessa's, Missle did break his maiden in his FTS in the mud (not slop) and won his first five. I also don't track at all the NY repeat winners but Contessa's 19% off a last out win.

So there's a couple mitigating things on MM (and perhaps a third if you don't believe the number). But if the # is solid and especially since he's back for $50k, you just got to wonder.

[blackthroatedwind]

There were only four higher Beyer figs run in America that were higher at 6F this year. Fabulous Strike, who crushed the field in the Grade 1 Vosburgh, did it twice ( 115 and 114 ), Idiot Proof ( who finished second in the BC Sprint ) got a 113 and the mighty multiple stakes winning Smokey Stover got a 112. Benny the Bull, who won the Grade 1 De Francis Dash, equaled the mighty Missile Motor's 111 on two occasions.

Pretty heady company for a horse still available for $50K.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's not fun. You've got a 14% trainer who's horses seem to run, at random, Grade 1 races....before slipping off routinely into oblivion.

Mr. Contessa is so impressed with Missile Motor's 111 ( over a length faster than the number Midnight Lute earned in winning the BC Sprint ) that he is offering him tomorrow for the same $50K price he was in for before his Grade 1 effort.

There's a line in the Davidowitz book, "if Contessa tried to walk across the Hudson, I wouldn't bet against him"

I feel that way about him sometimes too. Especially when you come up with a well thought out selection at a square price that gets destroyed by his "magic".

[blackthroatedwind]

But he's barely a winning trainer. He wins at 14%. However, there are times when his horses just run out of their skulls, and these performances are neither repeated or exhibited elsewhere in their pps.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But he's barely a winning trainer. He wins at 14%. However, there are times when his horses just run out of their skulls, and these performances are neither repeated or exhibited elsewhere in their pps.

It's the dichotomy between the Aqueduct meets and the rest of the year that really gets my goat. It isn't just 14%, it's like 32% on the inner and 8% at Saratoga/Belmont, which is kind of ridiculous. Granted, he's one of the few that keeps his better stock around in the winter, but still.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

It's the dichotomy between the Aqueduct meets and the rest of the year that really gets my goat. It isn't just 14%, it's like 32% on the inner and 8% at Saratoga/Belmont, which is kind of ridiculous. Granted, he's one of the few that keeps his better stock around in the winter, but still.

Better stock of what?

[miraja2]

Isn't there also a possible good aspect of something like this in terms of betting?
Don't Wishful Tomcat (and his other one-hit wonders) become solid bet-againsts in their next starts?

[Rudeboyelvis]

I hardly believe MM's effort last out was worthy of anything remotely close to a 111 especially considering were talking about, at the end of the day, the horse getting 1:09.3 over a sealed surface. Granted many other factors go in, yada yada, but you have to assume this number is hugely inflated based on how he embarassed a field that obviously wanted nothing to do with the off going. I don't posess the resourses for such data, but would love to see how others fared in similar conditions...I'm guessing closer to 101-104.

Funny that in this exact same race, Mr. Jacobson's Lazarus style reinvigoration of the 3 I Ain't No Saint, taken off Linda Rice's goes completely unmentioned.

If one were interested in raising an objective "hairy eyeball" to anything in this race, my god man, it would have to be this. I however am more than willing to give Mr. Jacobson the benefit of the doubt here.

Since were talking BSF's here, I Ain't No Saint 3 starts prior to being claimed at Saratoga were 66/83/64. He ran a soundly beaten 3rd and turned in a 76 for the effort the day he was claimed.

Jacobsen claims the horse, gives it 7 weeks off and brings him back to record a 98 bsf 22 points better than the claim effort and miles better than anything in his then recent form. Cut to the next start in the Maria's Mon when he lost by a nostril in a blanket finish at the wire where he puts up a 102 bsf 26 points better than the claim effort. For what it's worth,
and again, many factors including the stake, the surface, etc. but the race was run over the same 6f track where MM was graced with a 111, the winning time of The Maria's Mon was 1:09:2 a fifth faster than MM.