Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?

Well then why dont you tell us how differently the races were run? I have already pointed out some diferences in an effort to be fair, it is not like I am trying to sell people snake oil. I would welcome any further light you can shed.

See, I am confused right about now. You criticize my choice of races on the grounds they are different whereas you would have us believe KoRox is a valid comparison horse for a 10f derby. So which is it? Is the Hutcheson comparison a better one than the Ark/TB derby or were just blowing smoke up our ass?

If the two turn races are better comparison then perhaps you can shed more light on the distinctions?

I will go first and add a little more: it seems to me DK was running his own race in both cases, pace pressure probably did not compromise his final time by much. It also seems that SS was all out and Curlin was not. If anything Curlin might have increased his margin over DK. But since the original question had to do with Curlin being overrated I would think this would only help Curlin's case.

Also conditions must have been right for a track record in the TB derby but whatever they were they must have helped both DK and SS and AGS.

It's also possible that SS/ AGS final time was compromised by the intense stretch duel they waged. However they did set a track record (stakes record?) so how much could it have been? Perhaps you can shed some light on that issue. that might be a more constructive use of internet bandwidth rather than dropping vague hints that I am out of my mind.

Or perhaps you can find a better race that is a better comparison? Are there any races with common opponents?


SO which is it? Do you NOT think it's appropriate to compare similar horses in similar races?

Do you still feel the Hutch and CUrlin's maiden are a better races to compare?If so feel free to go on about that dont let me inhibit your style.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He quoted my comparison of Lawyer Ron and Curlin and was breakin' my balls how Lawyer Ron wasn't a lightly raced horse.

as I said just poor reading comprehension...you said "like" a lightly raced Lawyer Ron...not "lightly raced" like Lawyer Ron. My bad, which is as I said why I deleted it.

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Curlin has run 3 preps this year which is pretty much as many as any other horse or more in some cases...other than Teuflesberg who has gone out 4 times, noone has run more than 3.

By the way pillow pants, I misunderstood your post then reread it and realized how stupid I was in my reply..which is why I deleted it.

I know. Your reply was pretty tame to how I would reply if someone said Lawyer Ron was lightly raced.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.

The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by easy goer

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

I think you make a fair point. But, Bernardini lost his first race, so he faced adversity, had some dirt kicked in his face, and felt the heat of a race. Curlin still hasn't done that.

I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. Does it totally rule him out? Of course not, but for me, he's a horse to round out the exotics with. I wasn't sold on Barbaro last year until I went back and watched the Florida Derby again a few times. He dug deep and toughed out a really gutty win from his post on that track. Real gutsy. So, come Derby Day, yeah there was traffic, yeah there was speed, but he was in a familiar position.

Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!

Originally Posted by Danzig

so, what helps you to sleep better at night if it's your horse? big win, or narrow but gutsy win?

as a general prop. probably the gutsy win. Because usually the gutsy win comes at the expense of another good horse and the easy win comes at the expense of chumps and tends to be overrated.

But it's hard to use generalities when you have to bet on an individual horse. If you were to read about these races 100 years from now you, and didnt know the outcome of the derby, you'd probably think Curlin was some flash in the pan who had ran against nobodies. And the best horses had run in FL.

Every time you apply generalities to a horse race you risk being undone by a horse that seems to defy it. Barbaro gunning from the 10 hole at GP. No one had won from that hole at two turns at the new park.

There's really no way to know for sure. Otherwise I guess the parimutual system would have gone broke years ago.

[horseofcourse]

What I like about Curlin is he was 4 or 5 lengths back at the 1/2 mile call in both races at Oaklawn around two turns. That tells me he won't be affected one bit by a lightning pace should that occur or a slow pace or whatever is thrown out there. I don't hold the lack of starts at 2 against him...as people have said it didn't hurt Bernardini in the Preakness. He seems to be a very handy horse for the most part. He may fold like a lawn chair in the Derby, and I have no idea who will win the race, but I think he's the best horse going in. I've seen nothing from any other contender any better than what he's shown this year.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What I like about Curlin is he was 4 or 5 lengths back at the 1/2 mile call in both races at Oaklawn around two turns. That tells me he won't be affected one bit by a lightning pace should that occur or a slow pace or whatever is thrown out there. I don't hold the lack of starts at 2 against him...as people have said it didn't hurt Bernardini in the Preakness. He seems to be a very handy horse for the most part. He may fold like a lawn chair in the Derby, and I have no idea who will win the race, but I think he's the best horse going in. I've seen nothing from any other contender any better than what he's shown this year.

Agreed. Curlin's versatility is his biggest asset, I believe. Very similar to Bernardini in that aspect.

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. !!!

Your views on pressure may be irrelevant in "great scheme of things" but they might help us to better understand what we are talking about and what we think Curlins problems may be.

If we are saying Curlin may not get 10f if he is forced to run fast in the third quarter that is one thing. ANd perhaps we can look his PPs, or perhaps we can find similar horses, or similar pedigrees and go from there.

If we are talking psychological pressure that is another analysis. I tried to say that personally I dont but into much of it, so you know where I am coming from.

But you are talking about yet another type of pressure! The huge crowd. Does that really happen? It has happened to human performers. Dont know what the hell horses are thinking. Do we have examples of this? Hansel?? I dunno..

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!

Who Barbaro? or Curlin. YOu are talking Curlin yes? Little bit confusing, meaning "especially". Especially what??

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas....By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

Another factor, in both races Curlin [edit: that should be Delightful Kiss] is described as making a mild or modest rally. But in OP he had to go wide, at TB I dont think he was very wide, prollly on the rail if memory serves...

Anyhow he lost ground around the turn so that may account for more beaten lengths. Still even with adjustment, how much difference can there be? the more you look at it, the more it seems Curlin is comparable to SS. At least in the sense of speed, psychologically who knows?

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He reminds me of a lightly raced Lawyer Ron. He ran well at FG and Oaklawn, just like Lawyer Ron. Will he **** the bed in the Derby? We'll see.

Disclaimer: I lost alot of money today so my opinion isn't as valuable as some. Take it with a grain of salt.

if you're talking Curlin he did not run at FG his first time was at GP. I am a little confused...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.

The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

You really liked that movie? I watched it so long ago, but it just seemed soooo depressing, reallly I wanted to yell at everyone to wise up and go out and make their lives better. I wouldn't have made a very good therapist.

[slotdirt]

All I have to say is no horse has won the Derby without a start at two since like 1885. I hope the public makes Curlin the betting fave.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You really liked that movie? I watched it so long ago, but it just seemed soooo depressing, reallly I wanted to yell at everyone to wise up and go out and make their lives better. I wouldn't have made a very good therapist.

Shut up.



It's one of my all timers as well.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.
The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

again?

[Mortimer]

Here you are darling:



Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.
The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Here you are darling:



Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.
The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

thank you my sweet...but I meant watching the movie again

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

Hardly a bold statement. Didn't he go sub 12 for the last furlong? I think someone would have to be on crack to think he could have gone faster.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Shut up.



It's one of my all timers as well.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

thank you my sweet...but I meant watching the movie again...

Oh.










I know I watch my all time favs quite often.