Cowtown Cat gets huge BRIS #. Cobalt Blue gets excused

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Last week, in the three major KY Derby prep races, the host track carded only one other two-turn dirt route race on each occasion.

This not only makes things difficult for figure makers who split route and sprint variants, but it also makes it hard on analytical handicappers who are looking to evaluate these performances.

It's interesting to see that Cowtown Cat recieved the fastest number of the three preps on BRIS's computerized speed figures...and by a clear-cut margin. While Tiago recieved the slowest number. The Beyer figures had the opposite occuring.

In fact, the 108 BRIS figure by Cowtown Cat is OUTRIGHT the fastest BRIS number earned in any Derby prep. How strong is it? By comparison, Holy Bull's career best BRIS was a 112. Horse of the year A. P. Indy's career top BRIS was just a 110.

What no one's figure will tell you is that Cowtown Cat certainly had everything working in his favor Saturday. For instance,

* Of the 10 dirt races run at Hawthorne on Saturday, A remarkable 7 were won in wire-to-wire fashion! The three who failed all finished 2nd. Meaning, the horse who held the lead after a 1/4 mile compiled a dazzling 10-7-3-0 record. That seems to obviously indicate a potential speed bias.

* Inside posts have been dominant all meet at Hawthorne, and that trend continued Saturday. Post position 1 racked up four winners (paying $27.80, $11.00, $4.80, and $7.40) and had three 2nd place finishes. By simply boxing the three inside posts in exactas, you'd have hit five of ten exactas (paying $121.60, $23.80, $28.80, $88.60, and $21.00) and by simply boxing the four inside posts in trifectas, you'd have hit an amazing 7 out of 10 trifectas. In the ILL Derby, the four inside posts made up a $2,081.00 superfecta. Every winner on dirt raced inside for most of the running according to the charts.

Much like in Southwest Stakes with Hard Spun, heavily favored Cobalt Blue, who is typically a speed horse, found himself rating off a soft early pace, and three wide throughout on an inside-speed track. The result was a 7th place finish, beaten 18+ lengths, at even money odds. The most hardened students of trips will tell you that he ran just as good on Saturday, as he did in his SA Stakes win, where he had a DREAM front-end trip on a slow pace.

While Cobalt Blue was the victim of circumstances, Cowtown Cat was obviously strongly aided by them. If you believe the very modest 98 Beyer Speed figure he recieved---than he's a very good bet to finish 12th or worse in the Kentucky Derby. However, if you believe the spectacular 108 BRIS figure he earned, it's not quite as easy to assume he'll finish way up the track, however...it is highly unlikely that he gets everything in his favor like he did Saturday.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Last week, in the three major KY Derby prep races, the host track carded only one other two-turn dirt route race on each occasion.

This not only makes things difficult for figure makers who split route and sprint variants, but it also makes it hard on analytical handicappers who are looking to evaluate these performances.

It's interesting to see that Cowtown Cat recieved the fastest number of the three preps on BRIS's computerized speed figures...and by a clear-cut margin. While Tiago recieved the slowest number. The Beyer figures had the opposite occuring.

In fact, the 108 BRIS figure by Cowtown Cat is OUTRIGHT the fastest BRIS number earned in any Derby prep. How strong is it? By comparison, Holy Bull's career best BRIS was a 112. Horse of the year A. P. Indy's career top BRIS was just a 110.

What no one's figure will tell you is that Cowtown Cat certainly had everything working in his favor Saturday. For instance,

* Of the 10 dirt races run at Hawthorne on Saturday, A remarkable 7 were won in wire-to-wire fashion! The three who failed all finished 2nd. Meaning, the horse who held the lead after a 1/4 mile compiled a dazzling 10-7-3-0 record. That seems to obviously indicate a potential speed bias.

* Inside posts have been dominant all meet at Hawthorne, and that trend continued Saturday. Post position 1 racked up four winners (paying $27.80, $11.00, $4.80, and $7.40) and had three 2nd place finishes. By simply boxing the three inside posts in exactas, you'd have hit five of ten exactas (paying $121.60, $23.80, $28.80, $88.60, and $21.00) and by simply boxing the four inside posts in trifectas, you'd have hit an amazing 7 out of 10 trifectas. In the ILL Derby, the four inside posts made up a $2,081.00 superfecta. Every winner on dirt raced inside for most of the running according to the charts.

Much like in Southwest Stakes with Hard Spun, heavily favored Cobalt Blue, who is typically a speed horse, found himself rating off a soft early pace, and three wide throughout on an inside-speed track. The result was a 7th place finish, beaten 18+ lengths, at even money odds. The most hardened students of trips will tell you that he ran just as good on Saturday, as he did in his SA Stakes win, where he had a DREAM front-end trip on a slow pace.

While Cobalt Blue was the victim of circumstances, Cowtown Cat was obviously strongly aided by them. If you believe the very modest 98 Beyer Speed figure he recieved---than he's a very good bet to finish 12th or worse in the Kentucky Derby. However, if you believe the spectacular 108 BRIS figure he earned, it's not quite as easy to assume he'll finish way up the track, however...it is highly unlikely that he gets everything in his favor like he did Saturday.

Super post. Thanks for posting it.

--Dunbar

[miraja2]

Everybody who plans on betting the Derby should be THRILLED by the Illinois Derby result. DrugS is absolutely right. CC was the beneficiary of a set of circumstances that almost certainly will not be present in this horse's next start.
The best thing that can happen in these spring 3yo stakes is for horses that obviously have no chance to win the Derby (think SinMin last year) to win by a comfortable margin. It basically ensures that the general public will severely overbet these horses in the Derby, which of course, helps all of us. It means more going into a race like this because on Derby Day we aren't simply competing against other seasoned handicappers like we are on a cold and rainy February Thursday at Aqueduct. We are competing against a large pool of people who don't have a clue. The Illinois Derby just helped our chances.

P.S. I've been telling you guys for weeks now.....Cowtown Cat......16th!!!

[Mortimer]

Sooba Dooba!

Poodin un da riiiidz!!

[jpops757]

Without knowing what the field will look like or the post. The one sure thing is no one should get an uncontested easy lead. Where we always are concerned about a calvery charge out of the gate. The real running will come out of the final turn and timing and jockeys taking the right path is the key. Im not sure who I like now but it looks like I described a Street Sense win. I wonder if a trainer with multiple entries , might give instruction for at least 1 of them to cover the inside hole,

[brianwspencer]

Great post Drugs -- it's a systematic issue to consider most days at Hawthorne throughout the winter, when days without bias exist, but are the exception.

The one addition I would make to your post, is that 'Cat still came home in a more than acceptable time for his last three-eighths. So while the inside has been the place to be and the lead has been the place to be -- horses haven't been finishing their races that impressively on the front end at Hawthorne. So regardless of the fact that 'Cat was allowed to loaf on the front end early, he still came home very well without being ridden that aggressively by Jara in the final 1/16th.

For me, it's a very enigmatic performance. I don't know what to make of it.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Last week, in the three major KY Derby prep races, the host track carded only one other two-turn dirt route race on each occasion.

This not only makes things difficult for figure makers who split route and sprint variants, but it also makes it hard on analytical handicappers who are looking to evaluate these performances.

It's interesting to see that Cowtown Cat recieved the fastest number of the three preps on BRIS's computerized speed figures...and by a clear-cut margin. While Tiago recieved the slowest number. The Beyer figures had the opposite occuring.

In fact, the 108 BRIS figure by Cowtown Cat is OUTRIGHT the fastest BRIS number earned in any Derby prep. How strong is it? By comparison, Holy Bull's career best BRIS was a 112. Horse of the year A. P. Indy's career top BRIS was just a 110.

What no one's figure will tell you is that Cowtown Cat certainly had everything working in his favor Saturday. For instance,

* Of the 10 dirt races run at Hawthorne on Saturday, A remarkable 7 were won in wire-to-wire fashion! The three who failed all finished 2nd. Meaning, the horse who held the lead after a 1/4 mile compiled a dazzling 10-7-3-0 record. That seems to obviously indicate a potential speed bias.

* Inside posts have been dominant all meet at Hawthorne, and that trend continued Saturday. Post position 1 racked up four winners (paying $27.80, $11.00, $4.80, and $7.40) and had three 2nd place finishes. By simply boxing the three inside posts in exactas, you'd have hit five of ten exactas (paying $121.60, $23.80, $28.80, $88.60, and $21.00) and by simply boxing the four inside posts in trifectas, you'd have hit an amazing 7 out of 10 trifectas. In the ILL Derby, the four inside posts made up a $2,081.00 superfecta. Every winner on dirt raced inside for most of the running according to the charts.

Much like in Southwest Stakes with Hard Spun, heavily favored Cobalt Blue, who is typically a speed horse, found himself rating off a soft early pace, and three wide throughout on an inside-speed track. The result was a 7th place finish, beaten 18+ lengths, at even money odds. The most hardened students of trips will tell you that he ran just as good on Saturday, as he did in his SA Stakes win, where he had a DREAM front-end trip on a slow pace.

While Cobalt Blue was the victim of circumstances, Cowtown Cat was obviously strongly aided by them. If you believe the very modest 98 Beyer Speed figure he recieved---than he's a very good bet to finish 12th or worse in the Kentucky Derby. However, if you believe the spectacular 108 BRIS figure he earned, it's not quite as easy to assume he'll finish way up the track, however...it is highly unlikely that he gets everything in his favor like he did Saturday.

hey, maybe that accounts for what happened to the winner of last year's illinois derby as well! what was his name again?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Sweetnorthernsaint