Revisiting SNS - Saturday

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Gander

Look at it this way. If SNS loses, he will have a myriad of excuses. For one the post position. Also, Dominguez will probably make another premature move, which he may have to.

Scavs, not sure why you are so anxious to bet that kind of money on this horse. Why all the buzz surrounding him?

Yes its a bad field and he should win (on paper at least), but you and I see about 10 horses that look better than SNS lose every weekend.

Great post. SNS backers have a built in excuse in Dominguez this time. If he loses, I'm sure RD will take a beating, despite the bad post. If he wins, his horse was the best on paper, so he'll get no props. To all you bashers, here's your perfect chance for a 'bet against'...RD on a great horse with a terrible post and a decent field!!! Make sure you take advantage of it...no whining on Saturday night...

[Gander]

A couple hundred posts when Ramon blows the ride on a Contessa chalk. But the guy wins 5 in one day last week and hardly any posts.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Gander

A couple hundred posts when Ramon blows the ride on a Contessa chalk. But the guy wins 5 in one day last week and hardly any posts.

Exactly.

I was actually going to get on here and ask if anyone knew anything about the Brothers horse!!!!! If nothing else, he has proven he can run 9f!! hahahahaha


but, I think Texcess has this one. Gogo will get him there and I think there's going to be plenty of horse. Who knows how he'll take GP, but I'll take that risk for a little price.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by jman5581

I was actually going to get on here and ask if anyone knew anything about the Brothers horse!!!!! If nothing else, he has proven he can run 9f!! hahahahaha


but, I think Texcess has this one. Gogo will get him there and I think there's going to be plenty of horse. Who knows how he'll take GP, but I'll take that risk for a little price.

My selection too, good luck!

[JJP]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

I thought my line was pretty good. OK Summer Book ran better than 30-1 but he wasn't exactly hammered at the windows. 30-1 on McCanns' Mojave was a bit much. Now if SNS had one of the inside 4 posts, what would he have been? 7-5? 6-5? In any event, one should avoid the far outside posts in 9f GP races.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

I thought my line was pretty good. OK Summer Book ran better than 30-1 but he wasn't exactly hammered at the windows. 30-1 on McCanns' Mojave was a bit much. Now if SNS had one of the inside 4 posts, what would he have been? 7-5? 6-5? In any event, one should avoid the far outside posts in 9f GP races.

Mccann's Mojave hadn't run a race with a number or performance that suggested he was capable of winning Saturday in over a year....30-1 seemed right about spot on. Summer Book looked a little underbet to me (and I got ripped to pieces before the race by one of the Chicago guys for saying that...who incidentally loved Get Funky). Summer Book had at least run competitive numbers twice last years...he just never got there.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Mccann's Mojave hadn't run a race with a number or performance that suggested he was capable of winning Saturday in over a year....

The fact that he had in the past, albeit a year ago, was more than several of the others in that race could say. And he was in good form, off two wins so it was not impossible that he could move forward again back to the big fig from a year ago. Just what has Summer Book ever done around two turns? There also was no true definitive speed in the race, and MM figured to be close to the pace.

I'd like to say I cashed big but the F/M turf race blew up my P3 and P4 tickets.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

The fact that he had in the past, albeit a year ago, was more than several of the others in that race could say. And he was in good form, off two wins so it was not impossible that he could move forward again back to the big fig from a year ago. Just what has Summer Book ever done around two turns? There also was no true definitive speed in the race, and MM figured to be close to the pace.

As far as his two-turn races (just talking numbers here, which are not the end-all of the conversation, but a good starting point), he ran two "0" numbers on TG in the last year, both around two turns (one was the NJC Handicap at Hawthorne, I know off the top of my head). Those two numbers put him ahead of every horse in the race but SNS, Papi Chullo, and Silver Wagon (if you count his sprint races) in the last year. As far as the pure numbers that on paper would have been necessary to win that race, his best was right on target with the other runners in the race, and McCann's Mojave was simply not fast enough on paper to compete against this crew and distance at this time.

The horse ran a heck of a race, not taking that away from him, but after sitting at Gulfstream and arguing for the 40 minutes leading up to the race that Summer Book was a legit contender with anyone who would listen, it was nice to see him run back to one of his better races. I thought he was a much more legit contender than Mccann's Mojave and a more legit contender than 3/4 of the field actually. His better two-turn numbers were several lengths better than Silver Wagon's, and his price was nearly 15x as large....that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[Gander]

You guys should have had this argument before the race. A lot of good it does anybody now.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Gander

You guys should have had this argument before the race. A lot of good it does anybody now.

Well I was without internet access in Florida, or I would have gladly done so -- I was doing it with the folks at the track instead.

[JJP]

I'll give you credit for liking Summer Book. IMO, it was the best route I've seen him run, and nobody else was really finishing at the end. OTOH, maybe the field was just weak since SNS didn't show up, and Silver Wagon showed he's basically a one turn horse.

[Gander]

I thought Silver Wagon took way too much money, yet he certainly didnt run to it. Guess that kind of flaws your theory a bit?

I stupidly fell into the Get Funky trap. One of my worst bets since High Finance in the Belmont. I'm going to need a lot of time to get over that day, not sure if I will ever play again.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

I'll give you credit for liking Summer Book. IMO, it was the best route I've seen him run, and nobody else was really finishing at the end. OTOH, maybe the field was just weak since SNS didn't show up, and Silver Wagon showed he's basically a one turn horse.

True, Rehoboth and Papi Chullo should have both been exotics contenders and we were talking at the track after the race that none of us could even remember watching them run or hearing them get a call...they were just completely non-threatening, like most of the field.

The inside horse looks like one to watch....he came into the race on the upswing and certainly ran a big one.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Gander

I thought Silver Wagon took way too much money, yet he certainly didnt run to it. Guess that kind of flaws your theory a bit?

I stupidly fell into the Get Funky trap. One of my worst bets since High Finance in the Belmont. I'm going to need a lot of time to get over that day, not sure if I will ever play again.

If you look earlier in this thread, I had Silver Wagon priced at 4-1 so I didn't feel he was overbet. If he runs to his one turn form, he's a strong contender. He just didn't. The m/l was off, IMO.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Well I was without internet access in Florida, or I would have gladly done so -- I was doing it with the folks at the track instead.

Hey B, how much $$ did you have on Summer Book?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Hey B, how much $$ did you have on Summer Book?

How many beers had I had and how much money had I already lost?

I crafted my last $5 around an exacta P/W with him on top, so to answer your question....$5

Though, we almost got to see table pooping after John laid into me for liking him!

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

How many beers had I had and how much money had I already lost?

I crafted my last $5 around an exacta P/W with him on top, so to answer your question....$5

Though, we almost got to see table pooping after John laid into me for liking him!

Amen on that! With all the bird shitting going on, I'm kind of glad Summer Book DIDN'T win. I definitely didn't need to see that.