Clark Hcp

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Super frolic would be no surprise to me either for the reasons you mentioned.
I don't like Wanderin Boy's chances today to win. He normally must wire the field to win and I just don't see that happening today, although he has clearly been performing at a higher level than most of these.

I don't see a ton of pace other than Bright One who I don't like a little bit. You may be right but as you said his performances have been overall better than all, save perhaps Premium Tap, so I tend to think he has a realistic chance.

One horse that I will be shocked to see win is It's No Joke. He isn't fast enough to be an effective member of the pace and his recent victories have been against significantly worse horses.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It's No Joke

Me too. Really liked his race on BC day, has the top last out figure on my numbers. Multidimensional runner and the other two speed horses he dueled with collapsed and finished 8th and 10th. Should get a garden trip from the 5 hole behind MC and Wanderin Boy. Do NOT like Master Command, he'll be way overbet thanks to the connections and he hasn't run a figure that is close to par yet for this level.

5/4,1,2,10

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't see a ton of pace other than Bright One who I don't like a little bit. You may be right but as you said his performances have been overall better than all, save perhaps Premium Tap, so I tend to think he has a realistic chance.

One horse that I will be shocked to see win is It's No Joke. He isn't fast enough to be an effective member of the pace and his recent victories have been against significantly worse horses.

Rewatch his last- he makes several midrace moves. He's got a big shot in here if he can come up with a similar effort. At 10,12-1 i like the chances of that happening. I disagree with your pace analysis, i expect it to be fairly swift with 3-4 that like the lead in here, likely Wanderin Boy ending up on top at the first call with MC, PT, and Bright One right there. Its No Joke should end up sitting right off that group.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't see a ton of pace other than Bright One who I don't like a little bit. You may be right but as you said his performances have been overall better than all, save perhaps Premium Tap, so I tend to think he has a realistic chance.

One horse that I will be shocked to see win is It's No Joke. He isn't fast enough to be an effective member of the pace and his recent victories have been against significantly worse horses.

I agree, I don't like It's No Joke here.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Rewatch his last- he makes several midrace moves. He's got a big shot in here if he can come up with a similar effort. At 10,12-1 i like the chances of that happening. I disagree with your pace analysis, i expect it to be fairly swift with 3-4 that like the lead in here, likely Wanderin Boy ending up on top at the first call with MC, PT, and Bright One right there. Its No Joke should end up sitting right off that group.

I respectfully disagree about It's No Joke's chances here. He did run OK last time though it was a very mediocre field ( the favorite Magna Graduate ran like a 10 claimer ) and the two horses with the inside/outside trips ran one-two. Sorry if I'm not getting excited about a victory over Irene's Mom who had never run a remotely competitive race prior. No horses from bhind showed up in that race whatsoever.

The simple fact about It's No Joke is that his recent efforts have been against significantly weaker opposition ( he beat that complete mediocrity AP Arrow for God's sake ) and he does not figure to get an easy trip here. I don't see him being good enough to get a winning trip here. Do you expect him to be effective sitting a few lengths off and making his move on the turn?

[Gauchos0522]

Originally Posted by philcski

Rewatch his last- he makes several midrace moves. He's got a big shot in here if he can come up with a similar effort. At 10,12-1 i like the chances of that happening. I disagree with your pace analysis, i expect it to be fairly swift with 3-4 that like the lead in here, likely Wanderin Boy ending up on top at the first call with MC, PT, and Bright One right there. Its No Joke should end up sitting right off that group.

Really doubt that Premium Tap will mess with the pace setters if it is hot and I agree that other than him it is a bunch who has a lot of questions and some of them like It's No Joke are just not fast enough to win.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I respectfully disagree about It's No Joke's chances here. He did run OK last time though it was a very mediocre field ( the favorite Magna Graduate ran like a 10 claimer ) and the two horses with the inside/outside trips ran one-two. Sorry if I'm not getting excited about a victory over Irene's Mom who had never run a remotely competitive race prior. No horses from bhind showed up in that race whatsoever.

The simple fact about It's No Joke is that his recent efforts have been against significantly weaker opposition ( he beat that complete mediocrity AP Arrow for God's sake ) and he does not figure to get an easy trip here. I don't see him being good enough to get a winning trip here. Do you expect him to be effective sitting a few lengths off and making his move on the turn?

That is how I envision it, yes. Basically the only "contender" i don't like is Master Command, so i'll shoot for the best price of the group I like- while I didn't think much of Irene's Mom before his last he has put two good efforts together and considering he's still 3 I'm banking on the fact that perhaps he's a late blooming 3YO who took advantage of a perfect setup to run 2nd.

Quite honestly I didn't like Magna Graduate in that race at all. Long layoff and poorly spotted in a 1 turn mile. Of course, my horse ran last! (he did return to win a good money allowance in a fast time, minor vindication on that?)

Who do you like? this is a very intruiging race, if not really a true grade 1.

[blackthroatedwind]

I already gave my opinion earlier in the thread.

Who did like Magna Graduate? He was the easiest pitch of the day.

[TheSpyder]

I'm boxing Wandering Boy, Wiggins, and Wild Dessert

Why ask why!

Actually think WB will wire the field.

[King Glorious]

I only like Wanderin Boy, It's No Joke, and Bright One as win candidates. I don't like Premium Tap to hit the board here.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I already gave my opinion earlier in the thread.

Who did like Magna Graduate? He was the easiest pitch of the day.

Ahh, missed it. I also think he's got a big shot. I'm DEFINITELY using him in multirace wagers.

I have no idea who bet him down to 2-1. Sometimes i wonder...
on an unrelated note, how was there only 1 winner of the pick 6 yesterday at AQU?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I realize crazy things seem to happen at Churchill but it looks to me like basically a three horse race between Super Frolic, Wanderin Boy and Premium Tap. I prefer Super Frolic, who's running in the first race he had a chance in for the " potent " Assmussen barn, and should get a great trip and be the squarest price of the real contendors.

Most of these are just WAY too slow.

I would think because of that you would like a horse that has four in a row at Churchill. This field just plain isn't that good and the better horses up front will be compromised by each other and I really like the chances of this race falling right into It's No Joke's lap. The only one that might be too good for him is Premium Tap and Premium Tap still has never won while worse than 2nd at first call so I'll take my shot against him. It is too short for Super Frolic and Wanderin Boy only runs well when things go his way up front which won't be the case today.

[TitanSooner]

Tap for fun.. used the wrong horse underneath.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I would think because of that you would like a horse that has four in a row at Churchill. This field just plain isn't that good and the better horses up front will be compromised by each other and I really like the chances of this race falling right into It's No Joke's lap. The only one that might be too good for him is Premium Tap and Premium Tap still has never won while worse than 2nd at first call so I'll take my shot against him. It is too short for Super Frolic and Wanderin Boy only runs well when things go his way up front which won't be the case today.

Next race I'll talk myself out of Premium Tap because he's never won while worse than 3rd at first call.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I only like Wanderin Boy, It's No Joke, and Bright One as win candidates. I don't like Premium Tap to hit the board here.

I don't think it's possible to be more incorrect about a race.
All win candidates off the board and your throw-out romps in near record time.

[Zaf]

Didn't have the exacta , DOHHHH , but at least salvaged the place on Wild Desert.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Hopefully Wild Desert at least hits the board...(with Premium Tap & It's No Joke)

Good boy Wild D, outstanding race by Premium Tap.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One horse that I will be shocked to see win is It's No Joke. He isn't fast enough to be an effective member of the pace and his recent victories have been against significantly worse horses.

You were definitely right about It's No Joke not winning, he had a terrible start and was never a factor. Those significantly worse horses he beat the last two races were 3rd and 5th though so I don't think I was totally out of my gourd to have liked him here.

[Zaf]

Nice Call, Sightseek !

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Nice Call, Sightseek !

Thanks!
Nice save for a day that I just missed everywhere else.