A Very Hard Game...... 4th at Bel

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As much as I respect your opinion, I saw the race completely differently. To me, the winner was the best horse, and ran the best race ( much as I would have preferred to see the place horse win ). The second finisher is a bit of a plodder. She hasn't broken particularly well, and has been sluggish early, in both of her races. She saved ground and had to alter course in the stretch which I just don't think means much. IMO the winner did more work than her early and beat her reasonably comfortably.

Now, considering the trainers, perhaps the second finisher will improve down the road, and the winner will go nowhere, but based on today's race I prefer the winner. I also thought she took sneaky money ( which is irrelevent....just thought I would mention it ).

I think you're right about a lot of this. There's no reason why the 8 being behind horses on the turn and having to steady and come around can't be seen as a good trip. She's able to thus last move the field. And it's not like Venetian Causeway and Madame Bling are actually horses.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Boy do I disagree with this.

i love him

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think you're right about a lot of this. There's no reason why the 8 being behind horses on the turn and having to steady and come around can't be seen as a good trip. She's able to thus last move the field. And it's not like Venetian Causeway and Madame Bling are actually horses.

That's very much part of my thinking. She was clearly the best of that group exiting the prior race.....I'm just not sure what that really means. And, after today, I'm still unsure but I'm leaning towards mediocrity. But, Penna's pretty good, so she could improve. The other two? Good luck to them.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If you have time, you might want to watch the race again, only this time focus exclusively on Castellano. Especially, on the turn. Notice how long it takes for him to go by a horse that he can put away just about at any point on the turn. He doesn't take the lead UNTIL AFTER they enter the stretch, sitting chilly all that time. (This is the way to ride.) By doing so, he holds the race together. He gives nothing else a chance to run, neither the chasers nor the closers, as he has the reserve necessary to finish. She didn't only get a garden trip because she happened to be inside chasing; she got a perfect trip because she was asked correctly.

I taped the race and have watched it four times. The quitting Christie Village gave way at the quarter pole. Castellano is not a good grass rider. Put another horse in the mix on the turn and he probably screws it up. He's screwed me more than Prado has with terrible grass rides

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pick4

I taped the race and have watched it four times. The quitting Christie Village gave way at the quarter pole. Castellano is not a good grass rider. Put another horse in the mix on the turn and he probably screws it up. He's screwed me more than Prado has with terrible grass rides

I think you're missing what's important, and maybe the Fat Man is unintentionally misleading you by focusing on the rider, as what really matters is that the winner received a patient ride. Yes, this was aided by the lack of an early mover, but she was handled perfectly. After breaking to the lead, she was rated off the speed, and then did not attack that one until the field turned for home. It was the best of trips for a capable stalker. It was also the best of situations in that the speed offered her no effective resistance. This is an important point....in that had Christie Village battled her to, say the eighth pole, it's possible this would have softened her up enough to allow the second finisher to pick up the pieces.

[pick4]

I agree with you. I'm disappointed in myself that I did not foresee the perfect trip before the race. I gambled on the cheap speed and Penna's horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pick4

I agree with you. I'm disappointed in myself that I did not foresee the perfect trip before the race. I gambled on the cheap speed and Penna's horse.

The winner didn't do much running in her five furlong turf debut in Florida though she did gallop out OK ( which is usually misleading ). Plus, her dam was a severe closing sprinter and predicting her to stretch out successfully was not easy to do.

The only way you could realistically have had her in the Pick-4, and this is often a good strategy, was to decide that everyone from the Madam Bling race was mediocre, and thus use ALL the strangers.

I used the same two as you. It didn't matter as I also thought the favorite in the 5th was a cinch and didn't like the winner at all. It really didn't matter because I bet next to nothing in the Pick-4.

[infield_line]

was "in advance"... with the benefit of having seen the race run, we often go "of course", but I always enjoy the in-depth analysis of the assembled sages....

Infield

Our two cents looking at just this thread and the chart of the race where much can be gleaned.

The race is for maiden fillies on the lawn... so pedigree is the first place a competent capper looks and this filly was bred by the late John Peace who was a member of the Jockey club and a director for the Breeders cup. His wife Agnes is the owner meaning they did not cull this filly which could lead one to believe she may have a bit of talent.

Still on pedigree, this one is an early foal by Came Home and out of a Broad Brush mare that had some talent according to the thread contributors. Most would view this pedigree as STRICTLY middle distance with a strong tilt towards grass.

Apparently this one started at GP sprinting on the lawn which we would consider practice and then from the chart ran the last day of May indicating she missed a little time. That race, again according to the thread, was contested on a sloppy surface but; did the race come off the turf ? A circle with an x inside denotes such. If not, it was certainly another prep! We would assume it was six, six and a half or seven furlongs with the longer the better; at least as far as her chances yesterday. As someone posted she would get some condition out of it.

So at this point in the handicapping process we have a homebred filly with probable talent, making her third start, stretching again in distance to a trip she is solidly bred for.

What is the configuration of the course should be the next question and the chart states that the rail is set at eighteen feet. Few cappers understand the nuances of how the movement affects the dynamics of the race and we'll skip that discussion, but suffice to say after two sprints this fillies connections had to be very pleased with the setting.

No matter the merits of the other horses.....none of them have ever won! It certainly seems $30 is a big price. We feel most jockeys in the colony would have won on this filly and disagree with some of the comments posted. BBB

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Infield

Our two cents looking at just this thread and the chart of the race where much can be gleaned.

The race is for maiden fillies on the lawn... so pedigree is the first place a competent capper looks and this filly was bred by the late John Peace who was a member of the Jockey club and a director for the Breeders cup. His wife Agnes is the owner meaning they did not cull this filly which could lead one to believe she may have a bit of talent.

Still on pedigree, this one is an early foal by Came Home and out of a Broad Brush mare that had some talent according to the thread contributors. Most would view this pedigree as STRICTLY middle distance with a strong tilt towards grass.

Apparently this one started at GP sprinting on the lawn which we would consider practice and then from the chart ran the last day of May indicating she missed a little time. That race, again according to the thread, was contested on a sloppy surface but; did the race come off the turf ? A circle with an x inside denotes such. If not, it was certainly another prep! We would assume it was six, six and a half or seven furlongs with the longer the better; at least as far as her chances yesterday. As someone posted she would get some condition out of it.

So at this point in the handicapping process we have a homebred filly with probable talent, making her third start, stretching again in distance to a trip she is solidly bred for.

What is the configuration of the course should be the next question and the chart states that the rail is set at eighteen feet. Few cappers understand the nuances of how the movement affects the dynamics of the race and we'll skip that discussion, but suffice to say after two sprints this fillies connections had to be very pleased with the setting.

No matter the merits of the other horses.....none of them have ever won! It certainly seems $30 is a big price. We feel most jockeys in the colony would have won on this filly and disagree with some of the comments posted. BBB

I'm stupified.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Infield

Our two cents looking at just this thread and the chart of the race where much can be gleaned.

The race is for maiden fillies on the lawn... so pedigree is the first place a competent capper looks and this filly was bred by the late John Peace who was a member of the Jockey club and a director for the Breeders cup. His wife Agnes is the owner meaning they did not cull this filly which could lead one to believe she may have a bit of talent.

Still on pedigree, this one is an early foal by Came Home and out of a Broad Brush mare that had some talent according to the thread contributors. Most would view this pedigree as STRICTLY middle distance with a strong tilt towards grass.

Apparently this one started at GP sprinting on the lawn which we would consider practice and then from the chart ran the last day of May indicating she missed a little time. That race, again according to the thread, was contested on a sloppy surface but; did the race come off the turf ? A circle with an x inside denotes such. If not, it was certainly another prep! We would assume it was six, six and a half or seven furlongs with the longer the better; at least as far as her chances yesterday. As someone posted she would get some condition out of it.

So at this point in the handicapping process we have a homebred filly with probable talent, making her third start, stretching again in distance to a trip she is solidly bred for.

What is the configuration of the course should be the next question and the chart states that the rail is set at eighteen feet. Few cappers understand the nuances of how the movement affects the dynamics of the race and we'll skip that discussion, but suffice to say after two sprints this fillies connections had to be very pleased with the setting.

No matter the merits of the other horses.....none of them have ever won! It certainly seems $30 is a big price. We feel most jockeys in the colony would have won on this filly and disagree with some of the comments posted. BBB

This is bad even for you.....and that's saying something. It might be the most incorrect redboard in the history of redboards.

Congratulations......you have outdone yourself......and that is no easy task. Honestly, when you pass away, if they give you an enema they could bury you in a matchbox.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

... the rail is set at eighteen feet. Few cappers understand the nuances of how the movement affects the dynamics of the race and we'll skip that discussion...

BBB

we find that interesting.
Maybe our guys could meet your guys in this thread and discuss some opinions of how rail movement affects race dynamics?
seriously.
Would love to hear even some of the basic generalities.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is bad even for you.....and that's saying something. It might be the most incorrect redboard in the history of redboards.

Congratulations......you have outdone yourself......and that is no easy task. Honestly, when you pass away, if they give you an enema they could bury you in a matchbox.

You know, he didn't look at the race and you know he didn't see it. He is just compelled every 40 days or so to say we.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

You know, he didn't look at the race and you know he didn't see it. He is just compelled every 40 days or so to say we.

And we appreciate that!

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And we appreciate that!

Of course we do!

And he tossed us an extra bone with his semi-annual reference to portable rail placement!

Really, how much more can we ask?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Of course we do!

And he tossed us an extra bone with his semi-annual reference to portable rail placement!

Really, how much more can we ask?

True.....that post really had it all.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

The winner of the 6th is a half to one of my horses. Another one, Dr DFC, runs tomorrow in the 7th for what it's worth.

Hey, whattya know. Dr DFC won today. That's both my guy's siblings in two days

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hey, whattya know. Dr DFC won today. That's both my guy's siblings in two days

Is it good or bad things that happen in threes?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Is it good or bad things that happen in threes?

If that's the case... can I hit the Hollywood Pick 6 tonight as the third good thing?

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by philcski

If that's the case... can I hit the Hollywood Pick 6 tonight as the third good thing?

As lucky as you usually are, you just might