A question for the handicappers

[blackthroatedwind]

Who knew you could get a doctorate in BS.

God, you learn something every day on the internet.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Not sure I fit your specifications, since I'm as much of a fan as a handicapper, but here goes.

Before last summer, I'd never been on a horse before, was even a little scared of them. But I live in a county in Pennsylvania that's real horse country -- more thoroughbreds than any other PA county, plenty of farms with connections to famous horses (e.g., Barbaro, Smarty Jones), I even think Michael Matz lives in my township -- so I thought it incumbent upon me, given all the opportunities, to find out what it was like to ride.

I signed up for this short (8 weekends?) riding course at one of the local farms. Although the actual teaching was conducted mostly by teenage girls, which didn't instill me with a lot of confidence, they had us doing low jumps by the third lesson. I generally rode a retired racehorse, which was pretty cool. I never fell off, but came close a few times. There were a couple of things I thought I undertsood, intellectually, about horses, but which I came to realize that I could only really appreciate, viscerally, by experiencing them.

First, horses listen only because they want to listen. They can be as obstreperous and resentful or as obliging and content as any person. They won't do, and you can't make them do, anything they don't want to do.

Second, jockies are crazy mf'ers. Horses are so big and powerful, and their reflexes so much quicker than humans, that any feeling of being secure in the saddle is only an illusion. A jock is really no more in control than a leaf riding a dust devil.

As far as handicapping, I guess I'm a lot more aware that these animals aren't black boxes, and that their performances can be as much a result of the vagaries of their mood as of their ability. This has made me more willing to discount isolated bad performances and more willing to give further consideration to horses I might have otherwise cursorily written off as non-contenders. It's also made me appreciate how a good trainer -- one that keeps the horse healthy and happy -- can improve performance. No matter how bad the recent form, I pay close attention when a horse is claimed back by a trainer that was more successful with the animal in the past, especially when there's a little time off before the next start. Also, as was said above, being able to observe at close range the body language of horses, which I'd previously only read about, has been helpful.

low jumps by the 3rd lesson?!
Enjoyable post...especially the part about the horses only listening because they want to.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

... and by that I mean those of you who play a LOT and consider yourselves handicappers (as opposed to considering yourselves fans).

I was reading sdjcom's thread about whether or not Big Brown should be scratched and I'll admit I breifly wondered about the same thing but only because I'm not around horses, haven't ridden one since i was a kid, and don't really know how bad a quarter crack can be.

I don't agree, don't think it's a major concern but I'm being honest and at first wondered.

Anyway I was curious about some of you... how often, if ever, you're around / have been around horses.

Have you ever ridden and, if so, lately? A lot? Never? Allergic? Scared?

Just wondering about your experiences.

I ride, very badly I might add, thankfully the horse I ride knows that and takes care of me.

[pick4]

Dutrow Jr. hired the "best blacksmith" there is in Ian McKinlay. I'm a handicapper and a fan of racing so I'm definately not an expert on equine maintenance. However since Dutrow Jr. says the horse is A OK and the 1/4 crack is not a big deal. McKinlay says this 1/4 crack is not a big deal. I have to believe the experts on this one. The IEAH crowd are total scumbags and part of me wants them to run Big Brown and lose. But I think he's going to win the Belmont. We'll remember the horse down the road and not the 3/4owners and their hanger ons.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by pick4

Dutrow Jr. hired the "best blacksmith" there is in Ian McKinlay. I'm a handicapper and a fan of racing so I'm definately not an expert on equine maintenance. However since Dutrow Jr. says the horse is A OK and the 1/4 crack is not a big deal. McKinlay says this 1/4 crack is not a big deal. I have to believe the experts on this one. The IEAH crowd are total scumbags and part of me wants them to run Big Brown and lose. But I think he's going to win the Belmont. We'll remember the horse down the road and not the 3/4owners and their hanger ons.

okay. inspired by this non sequitur i'll add this.

i'm not a serious handicapper having given up once i realized i was either not smart enough or too lazy. i'm pretty much dead money in the pools.

but i did ride for a while when i wanted to nail this girl who was wasting her life training show arabians and being a hot lipstick lesbian with a fat unattractive girlfriend with a serious personality disorder.

i thought a lot of myself at the time and considered the possibility she would give up munching carpet for me a real possibility. the fact i had a dick didn't seem a real handicap when compared to a bipolar bisexual whale.

as it turned out she was, in fact, a lesbian.

at this point, i should have realized i wasn't a good handicapper. but it took a few more years afterwards.

nonetheless, i did ride. just not what i wanted.

[Dunbar]

As a kid I rode at summer camps and continued riding into my 20's. I haven't been on a horse in decades, but expect to be on one this summer at a National Park when my 14-yr-old son has his first riding experience. Looking forward to it.

--Dunbar

[Bobby Fischer]

I've had no experience riding apart from pony rides and trail types of things as a little kid. Never been on a race horse.

I have to call on a general sense of timing for sports or action, and a visual eye of talent. For me I could watch a cheetah and a gazelle race, or running back, or a horse, it doesn't matter.

I agree with what DrugS said about having a book on that specific horse to be able to really handicap with slight positive or negative signs. Some horses look like a million dollars, and they always do, and they aren't good racehorses. (&vice versa)

I try to be conservative with major negative signs like a seeing a stride abnormality in the replays, or looking very sickly in the post parade, I believe in passing the race if they are an important part of your play.

& I am scared of horses. I had heart surgeries, I am not trying to ride a horse or get kicked.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

I ride, very badly I might add, thankfully the horse I ride knows that and takes care of me.

Or he's too chunky to want to move fast