A Derby fave?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

none of the six gets put in both the 2nd and 3rd spot in the individual combination

I think it is the boxed part that was confusing. I was originally thinking $30 too but then realized you meant playing it with Big Brown in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. I never considered that. Originally I was going to play the majority of my wagers without Big Brown and then a smaller group with him singled on top. Nothing with him in 2nd or 3rd. Then he drew the crappy post and I decided to not bother with the bets of him singled on top.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

A one over six over six Tri-Box for a buck is $90....so you did not need to see him as a lock just as long as you did not toss him completely...

Maybe we're talking different zip codes. I only bet $150 this Derby. Because I did not see him as a lock, I was not willing to bet 3/5 of my bankroll on BB. Instead, I though the race was pretty wide open, and there was no way I could cover the possibilities I favored while dedicating that much money to a horse I didn't like to win.

As I said before, it makes perfect sense if you liked the horse enough to key him. If you didn't like him that much, and thought 2 or 3 or 4 others could win, then investing in BB wasn't a viable option.

[Payson Dave]

Let's say you liked the 20 horse to hit the board and you wanted to play him in the the triple with the 5,6,9,10,14,16
Your tickets with the 20 keyed in first would be
20/5/6,9,10,14,16 =$5
20/6/5,9,10,14,16 =$5
20/9/5,6,10,14,16 =$5
20/10/5,6,9,14,16 =$5
20/14/5,6,9,10,16 =$5
20/16/5,6,9,10,14 =$5

do the same thing with the 20 keyed in 2nd and the 20 keyed in 3rd and it will cost you $90

or to say a few bucks...
a one over five over the same five with the single played in the win spot and the place spot would cost you $40

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think it is the boxed part that was confusing. I was originally thinking $30 too but then realized you meant playing it with Big Brown in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. I never considered that. Originally I was going to play the majority of my wagers without Big Brown and then a smaller group with him singled on top. Nothing with him in 2nd or 3rd. Then he drew the crappy post and I decided to not bother with the bets of him singled on top.

I was originally saying that if you really liked him (ie thought that he was going to win) then hitting half the triple with a $30 bet was reasonably do-able
later the discussion was if you liked him to hit the board but did not consider him a lock to win

[MISTERGEE]

the excuses given in this thread for the drf cappers not to pick Big Brown in the derby were his odds. so how come 18 out of the 20 cappers in tomorrows form pick BB to win. They like 1-2 better than 5-2 now?

[wiphan]

In the derby he was running against 19 others coming out of the 20 hole, which only 1 horse ever won from. There were also other horses in the race that showed success that could have competed with BB. He was very lightly raced and could have regressed in that race. He defied odds and won. Tomorrow you will see 11 mules running against him. There is really very very limited if any talent in the 3 yr old crop other than BB and none of them are running tomorrow besides BB. Picking a horse to win in the derby that is 5-2 coming out of the 20 hole just does not make betting sense, however you should have protected your tri's,supers, etc. with him in it. Most of the people will pick BB to win tomorrow, but will not bet that race unless included with the pick 3,4,6. Most people actually bet the derby and tossed BB based on the odds. If he even just jogs well tom he will win going away, however I will not bet the race. My 2 cents

[MISTERGEE]

but if they didnt pick him at 5-2 in the derby, they should keep picking against him at 1-2 in the preakness I would think. if they are picking for value and not just to get a winner as im guessing only 3-20 picked in the derby but 18-20 in the preakness

[wiphan]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

but if they didnt pick him at 5-2 in the derby, they should keep picking against him at 1-2 in the preakness I would think. if they are picking for value and not just to get a winner as im guessing only 3-20 picked in the derby but 18-20 in the preakness

It is not just value, there were other horses in the derby viewed as viable contenders that offered a more attractive price. You could have made a case for up to probably 5-8 different horses depending on the pace scenario in the derby. In the preakness there is no other horse in the race that is competitive with BB. Gayego who finished 17th in the derby is 8/1 and second choice on the morning line. Can you make a case for any horse to beat BB in the preakness? the answer is no. Could you make a case that numerous horses had just as good if not a better shot to win the derby considering all the factors other than BB? yes. There is value betting a horse at 8/1 who has just as good a chance to win as there is betting the 5/2 fav. BB defied odds and ran a great race, but most people will tell you that they would bet against him again in similar race with similar competitors. there is no value in betting BB in the Preakness, but there is really less value if you think no one has a shot to even be within 10 lengths of him to bet someone else.