Calder Pick 5 for Saturday

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

The more I look at Weigelia, the more I like this horse. I think we will get every bit of 20-1 on this horse if not more. Bling and Dubai stand head and shoulders above their fields. If someone other than those 2 win then so be it. But I have got to make a stand by singling those two. I am sticking to my original ticket and playing it 6x for a total of $600.

I personally think you are safe singling those two. There is just nobody in either of those fields that looks like they could really beat them. Singles do lose all the time - but I think you should feel comfortable singling them. If I play I am singling both as well. I agree about Weigelia also. Not a huge fan of the class jump, but I do like the turf to dirt angle and Lezcano aboard. Running up front against Lost in the Fog may not be anyones cup of tea though. If the price is right - around 20/1 - then I may have to jump in. If not, oh well. My personal choice in here is Gaff, though. Good luck with your ticket(s) - hope you hit big!

[zippyneedsawin]

I like Weigelia a lot too. But he's 12-1 morining line and I think a little bit of a wise guy horse.. I'd be surprised if he's higher than 8-1 in the race.
If I can't trim down my Pick 5 ticket more than where it is right now(which is a lot), I may end up playing some sort of pick 3 singling DE and TMB and taking ALL in either the first or last leg for $10 or $20, and hope a longer shot wins the race. Of course, the problem is if a longer shot doesn't win, it won't pay enough to cover the original bet!! Sigh..

[DerbyCat]

Zippy - Trust in the Derby Trail posters... I truly believe if you take a little from everyone here, they will lead you to the winning ticket - I've been following the advice of others here (and my own capping and knowledge) and my account is currently up over 200% in the past month! (yes, you folks here give great advice... just listen to each other!)

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I like Weigelia a lot too. But he's 12-1 morining line and I think a little bit of a wise guy horse.. I'd be surprised if he's higher than 8-1 in the race.
If I can't trim down my Pick 5 ticket more than where it is right now(which is a lot), I may end up playing some sort of pick 3 singling DE and TMB and taking ALL in either the first or last leg for $10 or $20, and hope a longer shot wins the race. Of course, the problem is if a longer shot doesn't win, it won't pay enough to cover the original bet!! Sigh..

Pick 3 is not a bad way to go. You are basically playing a win bet if you single two legs of the pick 3. You might be in a case where a horse pays more for the win than the pick 3 pays.

[ceejay]

I see LITF as vulnerable. My top choice is Gold storm but going deep.

I love Frolicing in the 7th at 6-1 ML.
Also deep in R8, top choice is the 4, followed closely by 3,10.
Near-single of Bling in R9
I like Leave me alone if DE doesn't fire in R10

$155 P5 play on 23 tickets, pre-scratch:
http://petrophysics.biz/stuff/capture4.bmp

[bogeydaman]

Agree with you on Frolicing also. Believe you will get a price also as the shippers usually get bet much harder than the locals on a day like today. The only one I like on this card better is Villainage in the 4th. IMO this has been by far the most impressive of the local 2 year olds and each time this one has gone off bigger than its morning line. Hope it happens again.

[ceejay]

Actually I'm reconfiguring the play with the YLD turf, downgrading What a soldier and also singling Frolicing.

almost time fellows

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I have been racking my brain out this morning on how I want to attack this pick 5. I know I am going to single Bling and Escapade. But I want to keep the cost below $40. I am going to have the ticket 10x.

This is what I have so far

Race 7 - Every horse BUT Mykindasaint, Bayou's Lassie and A Sea Trippi
Race 8 - Gin Rummy Champ, Love My Mountain, Western Kind, Kaufy Machine and Justice for Austin
Race 9 - Bling
Race 10 - DE
Race 11 - Fog, Joey P, Pomeroy, Weigelia

So this is 5x5x1x1x4 - that is $100. I need to knock $60 off, or go with a $4 ticket.

Just an FYI, my pick Kaufy Machine in the 8th scratched. So now my ticket is $480. I should of added Soldier, but I didnt.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

So far the winners have been

Victorina - 5/2
Gin Rummy Champ - 4/1
Too Much Bling - 1/2

This thing aint gonna be worth it if Dubai Escapade (1/9 currently) and anything under 10/1 comes home in the Smile.

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

So far the winners have been

Victorina - 5/2
Gin Rummy Champ - 4/1
Too Much Bling - 1/2

This thing aint gonna be worth it if Dubai Escapade (1/9 currently) and anything under 10/1 comes home in the Smile.

Yeah, I dont know if Gin Rummy Champ is enough for this thing to pay anything. I need it to pay at least $80 for the $1 to get my money back. I was really hoping for Victorina to lose. It Frolicking would have raced straight then she might have won. But that is neither here nor there. I guess we will have to wait and see.