need "imo" feedback as owner

[Linny]

I pulled your PP's for Friday. Allow me to be blunt.

After clearing the NW2 in early Mar. you were beaten 9 by Again and Again (now hurt) and Wing Man. Both are pretty good horses who themselves might have a hard time w/NW1 horses at this tme of year. I assume that Log Jam had no real excuse. he "ran his race" but wasn't good enough. If he couldn't be cometitive with NW1 horses in March, he wont be in July when things are tougher.
After taking April off you returned in the Kingston H on grass. Log Jam has not shown any real love for turf and horses like Dave and Golden Commander and Papa Da are pretty much established commodities. Any way you look at things, that race was tough.

If you go to NJ you have to run in the (rare) NW3x and THAT is also very tough. Check out the Beyer pars for that level at Monmouth. Instead you head to F'lakes where you meet the (once very promising) Rises the Phoenix. That one wins by 8 while you run a reasonably good second with a BSF in the high 70's. Assuming that with a 4l advantage over the 3rd horse that Log Jam "could" have gone a bit faster but didn't need to, he could have earned an 80. An 80 is not going to win a NW3x at Monmouth or a NW1x at Belmont.

The racing is far more competitive in the summer months and horses that flourish in allowance conditions in January may find the "same level" a bit deep in July. It looks like the idea is to run him where he fits. The purses are smaller but once the winter rolls around you may find yourself back in NY running for more $$$.

[jerseybred]

yes... gary's done good, and he turned that horse around. fortunately he had trained prime timber horses before and knew where he belonged.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Usually his Prime Timbers go straight to the "nut collector"

I see Log Jam is a pair light as well...

[NoLuvForPletch]

aren't they writing those nys bred races now with an optional claimer? you could run him back against the nw2 with a tag, right?

[jerseybred]

i don't know if we can run him against the nw2 with a tag ... that's why i joined this derby forum ... but i've learned more this morning from everyone's input - so thanks. (where else can a weanling become a yearling in half a day?) but i have spoken to my partner as a result, and told them what i thought should be done with log jam, and the claimer option has been agreed to -- may even show up at saratoga which would be a sweet excuse to get up there other than weekends.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by jerseybred

i don't know if we can run him against the nw2 with a tag ... that's why i joined this derby forum ... but i've learned more this morning from everyone's input - so thanks. (where else can a weanling become a yearling in half a day?) but i have spoken to my partner as a result, and told them what i thought should be done with log jam, and the claimer option has been agreed to -- may even show up at saratoga which would be a sweet excuse to get up there other than weekends.

There is a race on July 6 at BEL, a State Bred NW2X/NW3L/OCLM30,000 that he can run in. It is basically the condition he just cleared except this time he is entered for a tag. It's race 9 in the condition book. Link below.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...0706-20070706D

[jerseybred]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

There is a race on July 6 at BEL, a State Bred NW2X/NW3L/OCLM30,000 that he can run in. It is basically the condition he just cleared except this time he is entered for a tag. It's race 9 in the condition book. Link below.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...0706-20070706D

now that info is getting me to call gary right now.... THANKS.

[Linny]

He can run in the NW2x/Opt FOR THE TAG. Just be aware that that condition, especially with the tag is more competitive now than it was in March. Allowing horses in for $30k means that some tough old $25-35k types may show up. Horses like Seeking the Glory or his ilk run in them alot. It can be tough to get your 4th win against horses with 8, 10 or 12 wins. Some of those old mid-level claimers are very good horses.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Linny

He can run in the NW2x/Opt FOR THE TAG. Just be aware that that condition, especially with the tag is more competitive now than it was in March. Allowing horses in for $30k means that some tough old $25-35k types may show up. Horses like Seeking the Glory or his ilk run in them alot. It can be tough to get your 4th win against horses with 8, 10 or 12 wins. Some of those old mid-level claimers are very good horses.

I understand your point Linny, but Seeking the Glory specifically is running in sprints, as most of those "salty types" tend to do. Seems as though Log Jam is at his best going long, which is what that July 6th race is slated for.

[Linny]

STG is a sprinter but serves as an example of they class of horse that may show up. Agreed though that most of the real hard knocking types are sprinters.
I have a friend w/ a nice grass horse elig for NW2 (NYB) and when he goes in the opt claiming he struggles w some of the old classy $35k types that show up.

[jerseybred]

stupid unrelated question .... why is sam houston showing up under my jersey bred name on these posts?

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Linny

STG is a sprinter but serves as an example of they class of horse that may show up. Agreed though that most of the real hard knocking types are sprinters.
I have a friend w/ a nice grass horse elig for NW2 (NYB) and when he goes in the opt claiming he struggles w some of the old classy $35k types that show up.

That's a bad spot. Older Turf horses can be real tough, and because it's turf, they like to go long. Finding a dirt horse that can go long over a period of time is tough to do which is why those longer distance dirt races don't fill as often. I think Log Jam could find himself in a good spot if he runs back there.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by jerseybred

stupid unrelated question .... why is sam houston showing up under my jersey bred name on these posts?

As you move up in # of posts past yearling you get different tracks. Mine is Ellis Park. It should say "older mare, going long..."

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Thanks, I forgot about the dead heat in early March.

There are no NW3X restricted to NY Breds at NYRA, and he really isn't fast enough to compete in open NW races at NYRA where he gets the restricted exemption. Therefore, his opportunities in NY are minimal and the condition at Finger Lakes is probably his best option. The truth is, with a lot of these NY breds, while it's great if they can be competitive in the conditional allowance races, once they blow their condition their value is usually not very high.

I would imagine that Contessa has a great handle on all this and is trying to find the best spot for him. You've done more than OK with him over the past six months.

Well... almost none. They wrote two last year at Belmont spring... Chestertown Slew won one of them (Met Mile day). Don't recall seeing any since.

[jerseybred]

thank you all ... i got what i needed. to be honest i thought this is incredible ... and then i read a few of the other threads and noticed the names and though but how credible? ... you gotta luv it. thanks again ... you are 'imo' - my secret weapon.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by jerseybred

now that info is getting me to call gary right now.... THANKS.

Are you sure you want to sell the horse for $32,000? I assume you guys bought him for $87,000 at the Ocala April Two Year Old Sale. He's already earned $112,000. I assume you realize that running him for a $32,000 tag means that you are offering him for sale for $32,000.

I realize that your options are somewhat limited, but I still don't know if it would be a good idea to lose him for $32,000 right now. I would imagine the reason Gary wants to run at FL is because he doesn't want to let the horse go for $32,000 at this point. If you want to run him for $32,000 eventually, you might as well get some more money out of him in easy spots at FL first.

[blackthroatedwind]

That horse is not worth $32K......not really even close.

What does what was paid for him as a 2YO matter? He has now established his value and pretty much run out of conditions.

[jerseybred]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Are you sure you want to sell the horse for $32,000? I assume you guys bought him for $87,000 at the Ocala April Two Year Old Sale. He's already earned $112,000. I assume you realize that running him for a $32,000 tag means that you are offering him for sale for $32,000.

I realize that your options are somewhat limited, but I still don't know if it would be a good idea to lose him for $32,000 right now. I would imagine the reason Gary wants to run at FL is because he doesn't want to let the horse go for $32,000 at this point. If you want to run him for $32,000 eventually, you might as well get some more money out of him in easy spots at FL first.

i know ... but i also want to see log jam pay his way moving forward since i'm operating on such a small scale and breaking even is the only business option i've got.... so i question who will find value in him if we can't even place him? not to mention i don't even have full control since this is a partnership with a partner with a LOT of horses. they can afford the losses but for me it's cold cash.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That horse is not worth $32K......not really even close.

What does what was paid for him as a 2YO matter? He has now established his value and pretty much run out of conditions.

You say that he's not worth $32,000. Don't they have state-bred claiming races? He could run right back in the race that he just won. He'd have to run for a tag to be eligible, but he'd have a decent shot to win. He probably couldn't compete in an open $32k claiming race, but in a state bred he would probably be fine.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You say that he's not worth $32,000. Don't they have state-bred claiming races? He could run right back in the race that he just won. He'd have to run for a tag to be eligible, but he'd have a decent shot to win. He probably couldn't compete in an open $32k claiming race, but in a state bred he would probably be fine.

Are you familiar with this horse's pps?