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#1
12-01-2006, 12:36 PM
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fairgrounds today
you and steve areprobably the best handicappers i ve seen in my 30 or so years of playing the horses .but invariably with your 4 or 5 horse seleletions we dont always hit what you hit .it would take an investment of 1600 to 1700 dollars to play all combinations of doubles exactas tris pick 3 pick 4 .it would be nice if you guys could list as you would bet the races i dont think your investing that much money everyday
 
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#2
12-01-2006, 12:47 PM
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Hooves, I dont understand your bets. I see you post the horses you like in each race and I like that. However, I don't know how you bet them. Could you please tell me how you wager?
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#3
12-01-2006, 12:48 PM
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cassy this is just a guide..i dont like to put a play per say...i do tend to pick n choose what i play...as should you..thanks for the kind words...and sighning up to derby trail..i would do exacta boxes and pick 3 part wheels....
Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 12-01-2006 at 12:55 PM.
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#4
12-01-2006, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
look at it this way... 1. he's just putting up the 3-4 horses, ranked, he likes in a race. 2. if you are playing p-3's, 4x4x4 = $64. That's a lot to some, not to others. 3. if he puts a horse at 9/5 ML as his top pick and the horse goes off at 3/5, i doubt (actually hope) he will not bet it to win. 4. on the other hand, if he puts a horse on top that is 6/1 ML and it goes off at 12-1, i would think he'd bet that one good to win. if i were looking at playing based on his selections and had a budget of , say, under $10 a race i might do this: 1. Play his top pick at odds greater than ML 2, Play the one or two longest postime odds horse of his selections. 3. play an exacta key of his top pick over/under the others. 4. borrow $2 and play a 4-horse exacta box. above all, the best thing to do is probably just to take a look or a harder look at the longer priced horses that you or someone you respect likes.
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#5
12-01-2006, 05:52 PM
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8 of 10 today not many prices..
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#6
12-02-2006, 12:21 AM
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Bammmm!!!!!
I see this out next to races you hit and always wonder if you keyed that fourth pick horse on top and actually hit the race. I know your picks are supposed to be used as a guide, but when you go back after the race and show that you punched it in the mouth, doesn't that imply you played it that way as well? You picked an outstanding exacta last night, but your 4th pick won the race. Boxing 4 horses can work from time to time, but in the long run, you aren't going to make money that way. If you are going to grade your picks after the fact, I think you need to include some prespective and actually say what you are playing before hand, ala HWJB's thread. That being said, I do enjoy your threads when I can decifer what exactly your alien symbols are meant to represent!
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#7
12-02-2006, 09:46 AM
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thanks hell razer..well thats a quandry.,..if i have to give out exactly what to play .
A. that would make us partners b. it would hurt my own play as the combos would be split by the no of players playing.thus counter productive c.if it does not work out/the plays lose and you invested ...you would be mad. d. you would find out i dont know anything......
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#8
12-02-2006, 10:05 AM
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No matter how your picks turn out, you know enough to root those Hogs home today so you are alright by me. Here is my prediction: Jones runs for 140 today as Florida keys on McFadden and ignores everyone else. Dick throws for 220 yards and 2 scores to redeem himself after last weeks debacle. Defense gives up alot of yards, but comes up with big stops when they have too and special teams pitch in with a return TD. Hogs : 31 Gators : 28
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#9
12-02-2006, 10:27 AM
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Hail and Cass..
Sent2Stud has a very accurate description of what we try to do with the selections. The 4 horses are more or less a 'graded entry' system. In my case, the #1 and #2 horses are the two that I believe have the best chance to win at the best value. The A. and B. horses are those that I believe may be worth considering as win candidates, but seem more likely to be best employed in exotics. It's not dissimilar to Steve Crist's well-publicized A-B-C-X concept. People's betting methods vary SO WIDELY these days, that the opinions of guys like Matt and I shouldn't matter to players beyond the horses included as contenders. It is not practical, or possible, for us to be telling anyone what PRECISELY to do because we cannot possibly know their prefered bet. Looking for P3 and P4 options? OK.. these are horses you need to consider.. Looking for an overlay to bet W-PL? OK.. there's a 15-1 Matt or I like as top choice.. Want exotics candidates to use with a key horse that looks unbeatable? OK.. there's three horses Steve likes underneath.. Etc.. You have to realize too that these are selections formulated WAY before the races are run. Just because any of us like a 5-1 closer on paper at 8am, it doesn't mean that we bet them at 3:15pm when the prevailing bias is for speed after 4 races have been run. We're not going to tell anyone "Bet these plays" when there's no possible way of knowing what the conditions turn out to be once the racing has started... The selections that I've been doing since starting Derby Trail in '03 have tried to be universal so that advanced players can see my opinion while those less accomplished can try to play "blind" with boxes and get into the game without getting slaughtered. I tend to disagree with the premise that you can't make money long term boxing either... I've made money long term boxing. Period. By passing on beatable chalk, 3-4-5 horses boxes have been tremendously profitable for me over the years. Exactas from $200-$1,200 make up for a lot of misses, and though I key horses more than I did the first 10 years since I started to play seriously, I STILL BOX OFTEN when I have a group of horses whose potential makes them all concievable winners. For Breeders' Cup, I gave out 1-2/A-B selections with 2 longshots to consider in each race. Exacta and Tri boxes of the 6 horses in all 8 races would have cost $1,500 and returned $7,500. That was a budget of $150/race. Too much? OK. Just exacta boxing was $240 ($30/race) and that brought back about $1,000. To give you an idea of what was possible, an ATRAB listener used the info I gave out on the show and on the website to construct a $20 Early P4 BC play that paid $6,800. And he had it 10X. I myself got beat in the Sprint to miss the P4, but obviously, what was offered as insight combined with his view gave him the ammunition to win $68,000. The other night, Hooves' 4 horses in the Turfway nightcap scored an $11,000 trifecta. A 'blind squirrel' $24 tri box ($1) returned $5,500... That means you could make 230 similar bets without hitting before you went through that money, and I can guarantee that there would be plenty more modest tri hits within that skien of 23 race cards (10 race/day)... So anyway, the point is that the selections are there for you to use as an augmentation to your own handicapping... The same way I look at what my pal Steve Grabowski (DRF) likes in a race when I'm undecided about a horse. Many times I'll see that Grabo likes someone that I'm ambivilent about, and I'll include them because I respect his opinion. Same applies here. We appreciate the opportunity to bring it to you... Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 12-02-2006 at 03:20 PM.
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#11
12-02-2006, 12:50 PM
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__________________
 Seek respect, not attention.
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