Hollywood Pik-6 carryover 11/30

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Yeah Stud I know, and Scuds, and Crown, etc.
Some people know how to watch races, some people think they do.
You'd think these guys would get if after a while, how often you see a horse get steadied or impeded in the lane, and then just stop.
Horses aren't all brave, and many of em will just say screw it when stopped and not restart the motor.
You learn to watch the ears, which tell you a lot about how a horse is feeling.
I got screwed. Anyone who coulnd't see that Victor had more horse and was tracveling sweeter, well they just have no hope and can't watch races.
Trying to use what she did after the fact is kinda funny, and moronic.
She got stopped and chucked it.
Its a shame, it really is.

Do you reread this crap before posting it or do you actually want to continue to pretend that somehow you have some clever insight into racewatching and others here don't? Do you think these off-hand insults of other posters, while you pretend to be some huge winning gambler, vis-a-vis your racewatching skills of course, will go unnoticed and unanswered? You want to tell us that there is more than one way to watch a race, fine, but this " I know...they don't " BS is as preposterous as it is insulting.

Well, I think the horse that is the subject of this conversation was " shut off " because it simply did not have enough horse to make the move with the eventual winner, and the horse was hardly " shut off " with a full head of steam, and was in fact barely checked, and then eased out facily at the top of the stretch and backed up. You want a comparison? Relaxed Gesture in the Sword Dancer. Everybody jumped all over the ride, and it was a poor one, but the simple fact is the horse had nothing....and that was proven in subsequent starts. You are simply making excuses for a losing pick, instead of blaming yourself as you should, seeing if you should make some adjustments in your handicapping, and moving forward from there. Always blaming someone else will keep a horseplayer from having any chance of winning.

And, yes, I have hit many Pick-6s, some for very good money, and I have championed ALL the tickets and used money of my own.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The horses in that race were a pretty well matched group.Nobody in there could afford to have to overcome trouble(if they were going to win.)That much I know.Her chances at a win went in the toilet when she got stopped.It may not look like it was a nail in the coffin,but she couldn't afford it.If she doesn't get stopped,she comes top 2(I don't know which.)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The horses in that race were a pretty well matched group.Nobody in there could afford to have to overcome trouble(if they were going to win.)That much I know.Her chances at a win went in the toilet when she got stopped.It may not look like it was a nail in the coffin,but she couldn't afford it.If she doesn't get stopped,she comes top 2(I don't know which.)

If that's true, and I can't dispute it one way or another because I didn't look at the pps, then she was a HORRENDOUS bet at 6:5.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If that's true, and I can't dispute it one way or another because I didn't look at the pps, then she was a HORRENDOUS bet at 6:5.

Yes,that's true,but this isn't about win odds.It is about surviving that leg.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Yes,that's true,but this isn't about win odds.It is about surviving that leg.

I was waiting for that...


I am well aware that playing Pick-6s is about surviving each leg, however singling a 6:5 shot in a percieved evenly matched and open field would be a terrible play ( I know....you said it was evenly matched and not Mike...as he couldn't have felt that way ), so it can hardly be used as an excuse for that horse losing by the person who made the play.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I was waiting for that...


I am well aware that playing Pick-6s is about surviving each leg, however singling a 6:5 shot in a percieved evenly matched and open field would be a terrible play ( I know....you said it was evenly matched and not Mike...as he couldn't have felt that way ), so it can hardly be used as an excuse for that horse losing by the person who made the play.

I did feel that were evenly matched.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If that's true, and I can't dispute it one way or another because I didn't look at the pps, then she was a HORRENDOUS bet at 6:5.

You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.

Originally Posted by oracle80

You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.

I know hindisght is 20/20 but there was no way that the 1 horse was the single in the pick yesterday. To me the single was Little Teaser. In fact, that was my single in my pick 4. Mullins in that spot is a very solid play. My general rule is to never single a race where the field is even and I can make a case for all the horses. In addition, I try not to single a horse who seems to always find trouble and that is what the 1 horse does.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I know hindisght is 20/20 but there was no way that the 1 horse was the single in the pick yesterday. To me the single was Little Teaser. In fact, that was my single in my pick 4. Mullins in that spot is a very solid play. My general rule is to never single a race where the field is even and I can make a case for all the horses. In addition, I try not to single a horse who seems to always find trouble and that is what the 1 horse does.

I could never have singled her with the 1's form. No way. That was a classic two horse race.

Originally Posted by oracle80

I could never have singled her with the 1's form. No way. That was a classic two horse race.

Are you saying the 7th was a 2 horse race or the 8th?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.

If you agree that it was an evenly matched race, which you did in this thread, and also singled this horse at 6:5 then you made a horrendous play...it's really as simple as that.

You say " you have to single somewhere " as though one throws a dart at a six spot dart board and singles in whatever race the dart lands in. That is absurdly untrue...of course. If one singles anywhere it is in the race he feels his ( or her ) money is best spent on one horse in order to spread somewhere else. You had just used five horses in the previous race. You could have used three there and two in the race you singled and only increased the ticket by $144. The pick-6 is about making choices where to spend your money and if after a race that you singled you say " it was an evenly matched field " then you are either redboarding to justify some bad opinion or played the Pick-6 poorly. It is really pretty much an " either-or " situation.

What this really gets to is that these tickets you are playing are very poorly constructed and are far from maximizing your chances of winning for the money invested. You would do very well, and I'm not being condescending, to read Steve Crist's new book about betting strategies, specifically Pick-6s, as you need to learn about seperating horses in individual races into different categories and playing multiple tickets. In all honesty, it is possible you would have hit yesterday's play using that method.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you agree that it was an evenly matched race, which you did in this thread, and also singled this horse at 6:5 then you made a horrendous play...it's really as simple as that.

You say " you have to single somewhere " as though one throws a dart at a six spot dart board and singles in whatever race the dart lands in. That is absurdly untrue...of course. If one singles anywhere it is in the race he feels his ( or her ) money is best spent on one horse in order to spread somewhere else. You had just used five horses in the previous race. You could have used three there and two in the race you singled and only increased the ticket by $144. The pick-6 is about making choices where to spend your money and if after a race that you singled you say " it was an evenly matched field " then you are either redboarding to justify some bad opinion or played the Pick-6 poorly. It is really pretty much an " either-or " situation.

What this really gets to is that these tickets you are playing are very poorly constructed and are far from maximizing your chances of winning for the money invested. You would do very well, and I'm not being condescending, to read Steve Crist's new book about betting strategies, specifically Pick-6s, as you need to learn about seperating horses in individual races into different categories and playing multiple tickets. In all honesty, it is possible you would have hit yesterday's play using that method.

I know all about that construction method.
Used to play with KR and we tried that for a while and it just never worked.
We found that you ended up maybe having the smaller paying ones twice or three times, but always ended up missing out on the score.
I don't argue with the model we use. It limits losses on a large scale, and we've made many large hits never spending more than 800 bucks.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

what did that six play cost you...900 or so..bogey hit last week on a 250 buck ticket..anyone that listens to your capping skills with a open check book should have his head looked at..the fact that you have hit a few by betting a n insane amount of money does not make you a legend..i hit mine in toga on a 18 buck ticket..we have been noses away for 40 g on a 72 dollar play...our pick six synd from before would have hit for 40k again if not for your chime in on on caramooch as a single...please mike save the bs for your EXCLUSIVE CLIENT...lmfao

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

what did that six play cost you...700 or so..bogey hit last week on a 250 buck ticket..anyone that listens to your capping skills with a open check book should have his head looked at..the fact that you have hit a few by betting a n insane amount of money does not make you a legend..i hit mine in toga on a 18 buck ticket..we have been noses away for 40 g on a 72 dollar play...our pick six synd from before would have hit for 40k again if not for your chime in on on caramooch as a single...please mike save the bs for your EXCLUSIVE CLIENT...lmfao

To be honest, Hitting pik-6's isn't the greatest thing on my mind these days.
I'm helping make claims for one owner, and have a zillion guys who need horses. I'm on the phone all day long looking for them.
Market's toiugh right now.
Looks like I may have gotten a fellow Derby trailer a nice one at the right price.
I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by oracle80

To be honest, Hitting pik-6's isn't the greatest thing on my mind these days.
I'm helping make claims for one owner, and have a zillion guys who need horses. I'm on the phone all day long looking for them.
Market's toiugh right now.
Looks like I may have gotten a fellow Derby trailer a nice one at the right price.
I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

you would think after the wonder lady ann l horse eeked into grade one win you would have so many on the line...but in the end personality has much to do with succsess....

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you would think after the wonder lady ann l horse eeked into grade one win you would have so many on the line...but in the end personality has much to do with succsess....

Oh I do have many on the line thanks!!!!

[uscrules]

I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

Somehow I find this very hard to believe. LOL... Good luck. Stop denying it, this is your life partner.

Originally Posted by uscrules

I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

Somehow I find this very hard to believe. LOL... Good luck. Stop denying it, this is your life partner.

Passing today Chief, just didn't get enough into it.
There will be other days.

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The horses in that race were a pretty well matched group.Nobody in there could afford to have to overcome trouble(if they were going to win.)That much I know.Her chances at a win went in the toilet when she got stopped.It may not look like it was a nail in the coffin,but she couldn't afford it.If she doesn't get stopped,she comes top 2(I don't know which.)

I agree completely.
You know, not every horse is Taste of Paradise(in the BC 2005), as a matter of fact most are not.
Lester Piggott was quoted as saying he felt that 50% of the horses he ever rode were not trying.
Thats probably a low number.
WHile we marvel at horses like Invasor who battle on, and Discreet cat, horses who obviously have both talent and heart, the fact is that most do not.
The difference between a restricted stakes winner and a 35 claimer is often just heart. You toss heart into the 35 claimer and hes a restricted stakes winner.
You take the heart out of a restricted stakes winner and hes a 35 claimer.
I bought lans a horse like that. She wasn't the most talented mare in the world, but she had teh heart of a lion and never once in her career did she surrender the lead when she had it in stretch. She was a restricted stakes winner. You take her heart away and shes a claimer.
Noone in that race, had any heart, including the winner who was 2-14 with 4 2nds.
You can't rev one up and say go, then say stop, and get em to unwind again.
You see it every day whether its Finger Lakes or Hollywood or beulah.
You'll see a horse making a run get checked and then just stop. Most of em will chuck it when halted, they just don't have the guts.
This filly sure as hell wasn't Ruffian, thats for sure. Before she got stopped she was tugging at the bit and moving great. Antongeorgi gave his mare a great ride, and didn't allow the veteran rider to go through a hole that wasn't there.
Whatever, there is a small one today at the Big A unless they cancel due to the winds.
Thats today's mission.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

If somebody costs you a shot at 40 or 50k(or even 10% of that,) then it is normal to want them punished in some physical way.Then,it is also normal for that desire to pass(hopefully sooner than later.)