5/24 (BEL): Toy Cannon makes 5yo debut

[BigBlue]

When I officially joined DT a few years ago with an interest in Toy Cannon, I was hoping for a few things. One was to get a little more involved in the sport which I've come to love. Secondly, it was to try and become a better handicapper by really watching and studying one horse from his first workout to his first race and beyond.

The first has been accomplished through following TC over the last couple of years - so much fun to watch and be a part of. Being at Churchill last year on the first Saturday in May with the fam knowing that "our horse" was running at Belmont that day - you can imagine the stories we were telling. It was a blast.

That said, as closely as I've followed this horse - I obviously still don't have all of the handicapping mysteries figured out. So, I thought I would share my thoughts about Saturday's race here and invite those of you that have an interest to weigh in. My list of observations about the this race are:

• My speed figures alone suggest he's middle of the pack with this group.
• His past class suggests he should be able to run with these.
• The 3 horse may try to wire the field - he looks the fastest in race and has good works.
• The 7 horse is the favorite and looks legit. Good speed figures, good finish last out, good works but he is stretching out.
• Several of the horses that I would put ahead of TC are switching from dirt to turf including the favorite.
• TC's works are never very fast but they're consistent.
• I've never paid much attention to the blinkers factor but anxious to see what that might do to a horse like Toy Cannon who, as I understand it, seems disinterested at times. I've also noticed he does a lot of looking around during the race - don't know if that means anything or not. Maybe blinkers help that.
• His only win came at this track at this distance with this rider about 2 years ago.

My head will play a 5 horse tri-box (3,4,7,8,9) and hope TC gets in the mix.
My heart will place a win bet on Toy Cannon.

What do you see and what will you do?

[Storm Cadet]

The 1-7-8 are MTO and we are expecting nice weather. If we stay on the grass here are my thoughts:

My take is that the race is devoid of any speed except the 3. TC has never run close to the pace, this is the first time with blinkers on. Maybe he can stay within 4-5 lengths of the 3 and still have enough gas with his late close.

The 3 is a lightly raced 4yo who won is maiden on the grass in Jan, then came back on a off the turf race in Feb. That effort was a game 4th where he set hot early fractions in the slop of 22.76/46.26/111.19 where he weakened. Ran a bullet 4 f work 47 4/5 1 of 39. Kieran is 96 rating in his 3rd start, 93 rating on 1st off layoff, and a 94 rating on the turf.

TC Has back class that certainly as good as the 3 and his Timeform figs are equal to the 3. Mott is good % with first off layoff but less than average Blink on %

The 7 is a MTO and we should stay on the grass for the race

The 5 is a turfer who has some back class and has run low 80's perf figs compared to TC's mid to high 80's. He will try to stay with the leader but

The 10 is a grass horse with same back class #'s and mid 80 perf #'s.

My prediction is 3 wires the field with no real early speed pressure, the 5 just stays 2-3 lengths behind him and battles TC for runner up spot as long as we stay on the grass.

As for betting, the 3 will get bet even lower than his 2-1 ML with the defections of the MTO's, and TC will get a lot of play just based on the Mott/ Alvarado connection. Tough to make any $$$ playing the 3-4 ex or even a 3-4-5 tri. But I will probably play TC across the board loading up more on place $

But I will be there in person at Belmont so I hope we great great weather and see other DT owners!

[BigBlue]

Good stuff - thanks Storm. I guess I need better visibility in to the MTOs. That changes things quite a bit for me.

I now like TCs speed figs and his class appears as good as any in here. I think 5 could run early as well based on second to last race and some good works - and he has turf experience. Maybe 3 and 5 duel up front, Cannon and the #9 come running at the end.

I'll keep my win bet and key TC in an exacta with the 3,5,9.

[Storm Cadet]

Well you can scrap my handicapping for now! It's pouring at Belmont now with heavy rain coming in after midnight. They are talking up to 2 inches tonight now!

So those MTO's are looking better!

[Lava]

will he stay in if it comes off?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Lava

will he stay in if it comes off?

Up to Bill, but not likely.

[Kasept]

OFF THE TURF -- EXPECT TO SCRATCH