3/29 (MEY): Dubai World Cup

[pmayjr]

9th (2:05) Dubai World Cup (G1)


About 1 1/4 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $10,000,000

1 1 Prince Bishop (IRE) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 126 10-1
2 2 Belshazzar (JPN) Lemaire C P Matsuda Kunihide 126 10-1
3 3 Vancouverite (GB) Buick W T Appleby Charles 126 15-1
4 4 Akeed Mofeed (GB) Whyte Doug Gibson Richard 126 10-1
5 5 Sanshaawes (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 12-1
6 6 African Story (GB) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 126 20-1
7 7 Hillstar (GB) Moore R Stoute Sir Michael 126 30-1
8 8 Military Attack (IRE) Moreira J Moore John 126 8-1
9 9 Side Glance (GB) Spencer J Balding Andrew 126 30-1
10 10 Surfer Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 126 30-1
11 11 Hokko Tarumae (JPN) Miyuki H Nishiura Katsuichi 126 12-1
12 12 Ruler of The World (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 126 9-2
13 13 Mukhadram (GB) Hanagan P G Haggas William J 126 20-1
14 14 Red Cadeaux (GB) Mosse G Dunlop Edward 126 15-1
15 15 Cat O'Mountain Barzalona M Appleby Charles 126 20-1
16 16 Ron the Greek Lezcano J Bachalard Nicholas 126 5-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Superfecta carryover of $2,645

Posted on my analysm for the Duty Free-

One other side note- I can't get over how Godolphin entered #13 Hunter's Light here instead of in the World Cup. He's a steady turf horse, but he's inferior to these and I think they may be just using him as a rabbit. He has proven Meydan synthetic form, and ran a solid 4th on Super Saturday off a long layoff in preparation for a World Cup run. His racing lines are very similar to 2012 winner Monterosso. Godolphin had multiple entrants in each race, so they're probably trying to find the best way to shuffle the deck. But as wide-open as the World Cup appears to be on paper, HE HAS A LEGIT SHOT OF WINNING THE WORLD CUP. IMO, he has very little chance to win this race. I think he's as good as the other 3 Godlophin entrants in the race, and probably better than Vancouverite. Vancouverite should be in this race, the Duty Free, and Hunter's Light should be in the World Cup.

I would've been very tempted to pick Hunter's Light if he was entered here, but focusing on the actual participants-

This race is really wide-open. You have horses with proven form over this Meydan surface, but have they gone against this level of competition? You have classy group 1 winning turf horses trying synthetic for the first time. You can make a case for every horse in the field, but you can also find excuses why you don't like them. Guys, as much as we argued about Mucho Macho Man coming or not coming here, look at the PPs for this race and tell me with a straight face that he couldn't win this? He, at worst would be as live as every other horse in this field. ****, I would've been tempted to try Wise Dan vs this bunch as well. Ok, sorry, getting side-tracked.

As much as I'm liking the Hong Kong-based horses throughout the card, I'm playing against them here. Same for the Japan runners. It's totally playing with fire to do so, but as I said above, you can make cases for every horse and find legit reasons/excuses to not play them.

I decided to take horses that have had proven success over this surface/distance. Especially when it's this level of competition. It seems since Meydan has opened, that it's very tough to win the World Cup from far back, so I picked horses that can stalk or be close-up.

#1 Prince Bishop is in really good form right now winning 2 in a row over this surface, and repeatedly beating African Story and Sanshaawes. He's on top of his game right now, and eventhough he hasn't faced this level of competition, we don't really know who is better until they've proven they can handle the surface. He has proven it, and I think will prove it on Saturday.

#9 Side Glance will be at huge odds, but he's battle-tested. He was a non-competitive 7th in a loss to Prince Bishop on Super Saturday 3 weeks ago, but that was his first start since December. In his 4 races before that, he ran in the Arlington Million, 2 group 1s in Australia, and and another in Hong Kong all at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He finished 4th to Animal Kingdom in the Dubai World Cup last year. So this is his 2nd start off the bench, should be more fit, more sharp, and has a chance to have a monster effort at huge odds.

#14 Red Cadeaux finished 2nd to Animal Kingdom in the World Cup last year. The horse always runs in the best races, and holds his own. Hasn't raced since December, but came off that same layoff last year to get 2nd in this race. Should have really good value and brings the resume to back it up. Live horse that should be around 10-1

#5 Sanshaawes has been in very good form the whole Dubai Carnival. He had 2 wins in a row over the surface before getting 2nd ro Prince Bishop on Super Saturday. He's definitely eligible to turn the tables on PB, and win the race. Has the potential to be anywhere from 7-1 to 15-1, and he has good value at either IMO.

There's so many ways to go in all of these races, I'm just hoping to be right on one or 2 of them.Feel free to rip on my picks now ;p