3/29 (MEY): Dubai World Cup

[pmayjr]

guys,

I'm not here to start another pissing match with you over how much Synth does or doesn't suck. But seriously these are the best betting races all weekend. There are a few races where the chalk looks good, but even in those races it could be bombs away underneath.

Other races are wide open, including the big World Cup race (Mucho Macho Man would've had as good of a chance as any in here). Many of the top horses in the world are showing up from all points, and you wonder where the Dubai-based horses have the edge and where they're outclassed.

There are very few horses in the races that are a complete throw-out, so there's a lot of ways you can go and a lot you can make legit cases for. I know the Derby preps are the big deal here, but the the Dubai races are the best betting opportunities all weekend.

Free PPs available here-
http://www.amwestentertainment.com/p...s-20140029.pdf

I'm assuming DRF will make them available as well?

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Kasept

2nd (9:10) Godolphin Mile (G2)

About 1 Mile (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Penitent (GB) O'Brien J P O''Meara David 126 40-1
2 2 Gabrial (IRE) Hughes R Fahey Richard 126 40-1
3 3 Glory Awaits (IRE) Spencer J Ryan Kevin A 126 40-1
4 4 Eastern Rules (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 126 20-1
5 5 Soft Falling Rain (SAF) Hanagan P G de Kock Michael F 126 9-2
6 6 Elleval (IRE) Lynch F Marnane David 126 15-1
7 7 Forjatt (IRE) Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 126 40-1
8 8 Gold City (IRE) Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 126 20-1
9 9 Flotilla (FR) Lemaire C P Delzangles Mike 121 12-1
10 10 Shuruq De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 121 3-1
11 11 Mull of Killough (IRE) Moore R Chapple-Hyam Jane 126 30-1
12 12 Capital Attraction O'Shea T P Oertel Ernst 126 10-1
13 13 Haatheq O'Neill D Al Raihe Ali R 126 30-1
14 14 Brightline (JPN) Fukunaga Y Sameshima Ippo 126 12-1
15 15 Variety Club (SAF) Marcus A Ramsden Joey 126 4-1
16 16 Limario (GER) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 20-1

Arguably the surest favorite of the day (although a lot of people have the right to debate that this race is wide open too) to me is the Filly #10 Shuruq taking on the boys here. She has 2 wins and 1 2nd at this distance over this Meydan surface and has beaten a lot of the other entrants in here. So I like her to win, but I think there could be some big bombs underneath.

#7 Forjatt lost to Shuruq last out, but got shuffled back a little further than he usually likes it and still closed to get 4th. I think he'll be more involved early and runs a big one. Granted he's run against lesser, but he hasn't finished worse than 4th in any race since 12/2012.

#11 Mull of Killough is battle tested running in the Cox Plate, the Arlington Million and the G1 Singapore Airlines Cup. He cuts back to a mile and has run over synth before. His best effort makes him very live here. He should be on/or pressing the pace.

#16 Limario gets his 2nd start off the layoff while getting a run over the Meydan surface in his last. He's also cutting back from normally running in longer races. Definitely eligible for improvement.

I think Shuruq is the real deal here, but if I can get one of those bombs underneath in an exacta, it should be a nice payoff

[pmayjr]

3rd (9:45) Dubai Gold Cup (G2)

About 2 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Dabadiyan (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 120 15-1
2 2 Star Empire (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 5-1
3 3 Ernest Hemingway (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 126 12-1
4 4 Moment In Time (IRE) Crowley J V Simcock David 121 30-1
5 5 Ralston Road (IRE) O'Shea T P Seemar Sateesh 120 30-1
6 6 Songcraft (IRE) Barzalona M bin Suroor Saeed 126 6-1
7 7 Cavalryman (GB) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 126 5-2
8 8 Joshua Tree (IRE) Moore R Dunlop Edward 126 10-1
9 9 Seismos (IRE) Atzeni A Wohler Andreas 126 15-1
10 10 Jamr (GB) de Vries A bin Harmash Ahmad 126 60-1
11 11 Saddler's Rock (IRE) McDonogh Daragh P Oxx J. 126 30-1
12 12 Now We Can (GB) Thulliez T Clement Nicolas 126 20-1
13 13 Sheikhzayedroad (GB) Lane M Simcock David 126 60-1
14 14 Certerach (IRE) Spencer J Halford Michael 126 8-1
15 15 Simenon (IRE) Smullen P J Mullins William P 126 20-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Daily Double

This is another race where i think the favorite, #7 Cavalryman looks the part, because he's beaten a lot of these, relishes the long distance (where you're unsure if some of these wanna go that far), has 2 wins and a 3rd over this turf course, and oh... yeah... he won this race last year and still seems to be in good form.

#15 Simenon I think has an outside chance to beat Cavalryman. He's getting a 2nd run over the Meydan turf off a 5-month layoff, where Cavalryman beat him easily 3 weeks ago. But this horse relishes the extra ground, and is definitely eligible to improve. And, I think he's run against some big-tymers since his last 3 races before the layoff were the Hong Kong Vase, Japan Cup and Melbourne Cup. So he's battle tested. I doubt you'll get that 20-1 ML price, but I'd take half that and be happy.

#1 Dabadiyan and #13 Sheikzayadroad are steady horses that have had plenty of runs over this surface and also think like going longer. So I think they're decent plays underneath at long odds.

[pmayjr]

4th (10:25) UAE Derby (G2)

About 1 3/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Safety Check (IRE) Buick W T Appleby Charles 121 30-1
2 2 Paximadia (AUS) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 131 15-1
3 3 Cooptado (ARG) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 131 8-1
4 4 Long John (AUS) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 131 3-1
5 5 Giovanni Boldini Moore R O'Brien Aidan P 121 5-2
6 6 Emirates Flyer (GB) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 121 30-1
7 7 Sir Jack Layden (GB) Dettori L Brown David H 121 20-1
8 8 Toast of New York Spencer J Osborne Jamie 121 20-1
9 9 Asmar (IRE) Hughes R Nass Fawzi A 121 6-1
10 10 Sir John Hawkins O'Donoghue C O'Brien Aidan P 121 12-1
11 11 Jallota (GB) Crowley J V de Kock Michael F 121 30-1
12 12 King Rubi (GB) Hamelin A Palussiere M 121 30-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double / Pick 6 (Races 4-9)

I'm gonna buy the hype on #9 Asmar here. He won the main prep to the UAE Derby, the al Bastikaya on Super Saturday 3 weeks ago as a maiden lol. But it was impressive the way he did it. A very slow pace was set in that 1 3/16mi. race, so jockey Richard Hughes on the backstretch rushed the horse up, and he just kept on going. He seems to relish the extra ground, and with this being only his 5th lifetime start, he's probably still improving. The owner/trainer aren't Godlphin, Darley, or Coolmore-based, so I'm not sure if he wins if he'd try and go to KY. Breeding is pretty turfish, so would probably tough to think he'd take to dirt... But for this particular race he's live at a nice price.

#3 Cooptado is a Southern Hemisphere 3 year old bred/run in Argentina, so he's not eligible for the Derby (Southern Hemisphere horses aren't eligible for the Derby, because they're actually age 4 by US standards). In 7 lifetime starts in Argentina, he's never finished off the board in some of their biggest dirt/turf races. He's never run outside Argentina or run on synth, but the way he's handled the other 2 surfaces, I doubt this will be an issue for him if he shipped ok. He's also already run at 1 1/4, 1 5/16 and 1 1/2 miles in his short career. Very dangerous at a nice price if the ML odds hold.

#5 Giovani Boldini hasn't run since finishing 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last November. But this is Aiden O'Brien/Coolmore, who's won this race multiple times in the past (including last year with Lines of Battle). The horse's only 2 wins are over a synthetic surface, and hasn't finished off the board in his 4 career starts. He'll probably be the favorite, and deservingly so, but the horse has never run further than a mile. Combo that with this being his first start since November and trying to go 1 3/16 miles, I'm trying to beat him. But if he does take care of business, HE'LL DEFINITELY BE IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY next start.

#12 King Rubi might be the longest shot on the board, but something should be said for the fact that in his 2 starts over synth surfaces in France, he has 2 wins. He won his last race going 1 3/16 miles over synth off a layoff since November. So this will be his 2nd start off the shelf over a surface he'll probably like. He probably hasn't faced this level of competition, but this race is a "next logical step" race for him IMO. I have no idea what his connections would do if they finished well enough to go to KY. He's an inferior turf horse, so maybe they'd actually try going to KY.

[pmayjr]

5th (11:03) Al Quoz Sprint (G1)

About 5 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Joy And Fun (NZ) Doyle B Cruz Derek 126 20-1
2 2 Sole Power (GB) Moore R Lynam Eddie 126 6-1
3 3 Sholaan (IRE) Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 126 50-1
4 4 Medicean Man (GB) Bentley H Gask Jeremy 126 15-1
5 5 Beat Baby (IRE) Graberg P Petersen Niels 126 50-1
6 6 Hamza (IRE) Callan N Ryan Kevin A 126 15-1
7 7 Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ) Goncalves L Caramori Eduardo 126 30-1
8 8 Amber Sky (AUS) Moreira J Yiu Ricky 126 8-1
9 9 Dux Scholar (GB) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 15-1
10 10 Catcall (FR) Peslier O Sogorb Philippe 126 15-1
11 11 Ahtoug (GB) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 126 12-1
12 12 Shea Shea (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 1-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Daily Double [/quote]

Shea Shea is the big favorite in here, because he loves this distance and the surface. BUT! I'M STILL COMPLETELY PLAYING AGAINST. This is a very salty bunch he's going against. He's beaten some of these, but there are a lot in here that have pretty impressive resumes. There are 2 Hong Kong shippers in here. They have some of the fastest turf sprinters in the world there, and that's the angle I'm using here.

#8 Amber Sky has solely raced in the best sprint races in Hong Kong. He's in top form, and loves going 5f. If he takes to the Dubai surface, he'll be a monster here. I doubt he'll be 8-1 as the ML suggests, but I'd be happy with 9/2 if I could get those odds.

#1 Joy and Fun is also HK-based. He's 11 years old, but still going strong. He's run in this race the past 2 years, finishing 2nd and 3rd. Good horse to use underneath, because he's a gamer.

#4 Medicean Man has lost to a lot these entrants over the years, but is always a steady gamer and is in really good form right now. He has 2 1sts and a 3rd in his last 3 races, 2 of which were over this course and distance.

#7 Berlino di Tiger I think has a chance to make some noise in here. He hasn't done much inthe US over the past year, but there's a key distinction- He doesn't have to run around a turn in Dubai. He wasn't doing that in turf sprints in Brazil. The level of competition probably was a little inferior, but those are some fast times he was putting up in Brazil. If he just likes running straight, He could rebound and run a big one here.

I won't be putting much into this race, because Shea Shea is the real deal and deserves to be the favorite. But at the short price he'll be, I think he's definitely worth trying to beat.

[pmayjr]

6th (11:41) Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1)

About 6 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Krypton Factor (GB) Morris L Nass Fawzi A 132 15-1
2 2 Balmont Mast (IRE) Moore R Lynam Eddie 132 10-1
3 3 Nawwaar Hanagan P G Al Raihe Ali R 132 30-1
4 4 Sterling City (AUS) Moreira J Moore James 132 20-1
5 5 Reynaldothewizard Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 132 7-2
6 6 Zee Bros Dettori L Benzel Seth 132 10-1
7 7 United Color Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 132 20-1
8 8 Complicate (AUS) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 132 6-1
9 9 Russian Soul (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 132 8-1
10 10 Jamesie (IRE) Lynch F Marnane David 132 12-1
11 11 My Catch (IRE) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 123 50-1
12 12 Rich Tapestry (IRE) Doleuze Olivier Chang Michael 132 4-1
13 13 Bello (AUS) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 132 20-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Daily Double

I think this race is wide-open. But with that being said I think the most likely is #12 Rich Tapestry. In his 4 non-turf starts, he has 4 wins. He won the 6f sprint race on Super Saturday off a layoff since December. He's a Hong Kong-based horse that's in all those nasty turf sprints over there. He's raced against some of the best and is 2nd-off the layoff with a fresh win over the Meydan surface on Super-Saturday 3 weeks ago. Take 4-1 if you can get it or even half of that.

Sticking with the Hong Kong theme, #4 Sterling City has never raced in Dubai before, but is a win machine. 7 wins in 19 starts (16/19 starts in the $$$) and has run vs the best in Hong Kong. He's a closing sprinter, and the pace should be hot, so he could be flying late. I don't think 20-1ML odds are realistic, but 10, maybe 15-1 is...

#9 Russian Soul had 2 very good races at this distance of the Meydan surface, before Rich Tapestry put him in his place last time. I think the horse was a little further back and a little wider than he wanted to be in his last, so I expect a sharp, competitive rebound effort from him on Saturday. This is the distance/surface he thrives in...

#11 My Catch is kinda an unknown in here. He's only 3, and has been running in 3YO restricted races earlier in the Dubai Carnival. Now this speedy guy is trying elders, but has a win over the surface. The reason I think he has a chance to hit the board here, is HE GETS A 9LB WEIGHT BREAK on the rest of the field. So if he's on his A-game, that weight break should make him very competitive.

[pmayjr]

7th (12:39) Dubai Duty Free (G1)

About 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000

1 1 Mshawish Dettori L Delzangles Mikel 126 10-1
2 2 Just a Way (JPN) Fukunaga Y Sugai Naosuke 126 9-2
3 3 Anaerobio (ARG) Marcus A de Kock Michael F 126 50-1
4 4 The Fugue (GB) Buick W T Gosden John H M 121 3-1
5 5 Educate (GB) Guyon M H Mohammed Ismail 126 50-1
6 6 Tokei Halo (JPN) Take Y Shimizu Hidekatsu 126 30-1
7 7 Trade Storm (GB) Spencer J Simcock David 126 15-1
8 8 Tasaday De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 121 15-1
9 9 Blazing Speed (GB) Moreira J Cruz A S 126 30-1
10 10 Dank (GB) Moore R Stoute Sir Michael 121 7-2
11 11 Vercingetorix (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 5-1
12 12 Logotype (JPN) Demuro C Tanaka Tsuyoshi 126 30-1
13 13 Hunter's Light (IRE) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 126 30-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double

Even with all the big names in the field, I think this race has the potential to come in with some big prices.

Dank is in good form, but has only raced against the girls and is coming off a layoff.

We all know the Fugue is a monster, but I think this distance is a little shorter than she wants to go, and I'm kinda confused why she wasn't entered either in the Sheema Classic at 1 1/2 miles on turf (her ideal distance) or in the World Cup...

Vercingetorix is undefeated, but has he gone against the best?

Overall this is a very classy, salty bunch and there are a lot of ways you can go.

I'm picking a longshot to win it- #9 Blazing Speed. Sticking with the Hong Kong theme, he's been going against the best. He's been competitive against Akeed Mofeed, Cirrus de Aigles, and Military Attack. But I think this distance suits him well, and he'll be flying late. So he's my pick at hopefully 20-1 or better.

#11 Vercingetorix is undefeated and in his last 2 starts has won over the Meydan turf. This is by far the classiest bunch he's faced, but until he loses, tough to pick against him.

#10 Dank is in such good form, I think she could hold her own with anyone. We'll see if taking on the boys off a layoff is too much to overcome, but she's done very little wrong lately.

#7 Trade Storm is a steady knocker over this Meydan turf course. He has a habit of starting sluggishly and flying late. I'm not sure his best can beat these, but I think he can hit the board.

As I said, I don't like the Fugue, because she should be going longer. Since she'll most likely be the favorite here, I looked for more value elsewhere. She truly is a monster if she beats this group.

One other side note- I can't get over how Godolphin entered #13 Hunter's Light here instead of in the World Cup. He's a steady turf horse, but he's inferior to these and I think they may be just using him as a rabbit. He has proven Meydan synthetic form, and ran a solid 4th on Super Saturday off a long layoff in preparation for a World Cup run. His racing lines are very similar to 2012 winner Monterosso. Godolphin had multiple entrants in each race, so they're probably trying to find the best way to shuffle the deck. But as wide-open as the World Cup appears to be on paper, HE HAS A LEGIT SHOT OF WINNING THE WORLD CUP. IMO, he has very little chance to win this race. I think he's as good as the other 3 Godlophin entrants in the race, and probably better than Vancouverite. Vancouverite should be in this race, the Duty Free, and Hunter's Light should be in the World Cup.