Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-13-2014, 09:30 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski View Post
I agree with Jack, it has been a really strong bet. Just today, it paid $4,623 versus a $.20 parlay of $2,196, with the late scratch in the final leg of the 2nd choice, essentially cutting the payoff in near half, so on a challenging but playable sequence it was 4x the parlay.
That's pretty creative math there Phil.

The scratch of the second choice, by the way, doesn't cut the payoff in half. Not only that, the last winner would have paid considerably more than $4.20 had the second choice not been scratched. Arguably, the scratch could have helped the whole parlay/payoff/value thing.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 03-13-2014, 09:44 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
That's pretty creative math there Phil.

The scratch of the second choice, by the way, doesn't cut the payoff in half. Not only that, the last winner would have paid considerably more than $4.20 had the second choice not been scratched. Arguably, the scratch could have helped the whole parlay/payoff/value thing.
Not creative math, I screwed that thought up. You are right- I forgot about the win pool getting cut as well. The winner was between 2-1 and 5/2 at the time of the scratch so the parlay value would be 60-80% higher.

What my thought was we don't know the payoffs but the 2nd choice was the morning line favorite after the scratch of the original morning line favorite. I have to think there was a similar number of tickets on both, give or take. Net result, a lot of people probably ended up with two winning tickets and happy faces. That said- I did not play the pick 6 today, but I did play the pick 4- and one of the reasons was I did NOT like the 9 in the last, and the original willpay was $3600 for a buck to the 1 and it paid $2400 after the scratch. So perhaps there was 50-75% of the money of the 1 on the 9.

Of course while I correctly smoked out the 1st time Euro, I whiffed on Orseno on the turnback. Crap.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:14 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.