Santa Anita Showvivor contest

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by bigrun

Copycat...I wish you the best of luck...Last 5 days i've been chasing 15-1 or better shots...ain't caught one yet...i'm due

Hunch play for my late mother-in-law, hope she's smiling down on us.

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

Hunch play for my late mother-in-law, hope she's smiling down on us.

That's my daughter's mother-in-law's name also...but no soup for us today..maybe tomorrow..

[casp0555]

Your Selection for Sunday, February 2nd:
2
Race 7

#2 Footbridge (KY)
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
M/L: 6/1

[mclem0822]

Race 5-#7 Lovely Instinct (KY)

Good Luck All!

[bigrun]

2/6


Race 8 - #6 Elle Street

[casp0555]

Your Selection for Friday, February 7th:
4
Race 2

#4 Bob Consultation (CA)
Jockey: Tyler Baze
M/L: 4/1

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Your Selection for Friday, February 7th:
4
Race 2

#4 Bob Consultation (CA)
Jockey: Tyler Baze
M/L: 4/1

Way to go!

[mclem0822]

Race 5-#9 Friendswith K Mill

Good Luck All!

[Arletta]

Race 7 ~ 6 Euroclydon

[bigrun]

2/7


Race 5 - #8 Setthebigboysfree

[Arletta]

Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

thx Laura....my sentiments exactly. I hope SA realizes this mediocrity and changes for the next time. BLAH!

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

It's not you, it's me, it's ALWAYS me!..George Costanza..

Last three picks are 15-1 or better, only chance for me is to get the highest win payoff..I have a better chance in the electric chair

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

That was my reaction, too. When 22 people tied for the high win payout ($132.40), it removed my last bit of interest. (I'd been picking 50-1 shots up to then, after my initial show streak ended.)

Here are the current leaders in the other categories:

Show Streak: 26/0 (meaning picked 26 in a row but current streak is "0")

Win Streak: 11/1 (no streak of 7 or more is currently alive)

Total Wins: 19 (3 players tied with 19, 9 others with 18 wins)

Total Places: 2 players tied with 14

None of these look attractive. Take the Show Streak, for example.

Say you pick horses that have a 90% chance to show. Then your chance of putting together the 27 race streak you'd need to overtake the leader is 0.9^27 = 6%. Even if each of your picks had a 95% chance to show, you'd only have a 25% chance of picking 27 in a row, and you'd probably have the company of others with 27.

Trying to pick 12 winners in a row is probably even harder. Say each of your picks has a 70% chance to win. Then picking 12 in a row would have slightly more than a 1% chance of success. If each pick has an 80% chance to win (1-9 shots?!), you'd still only have a 7% chance of picking 12 in a row.

--Dunbar