TimeformUS

[Sightseek]

How are blinkers on/off going to be treated in the Pace Projector?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

How are blinkers on/off going to be treated in the Pace Projector?

That's a great question.

The pace projector is based off of past pace figures and running styles.

Blinkers are generally a speed enhancer and can sometimes fire up a horse early on, but they come in different cup sizes and it's very tough to quantify how much of an impact they will have on a horses early speed.

The pace projector is nice because it gives a quick and clean look at how the pace is expected to unfold based on past data... but it does not take into account the human factor or equipment changes like 1st blinkers. That part, is left up to the bettor.

The human factor is the other main thing that's hard to quantify. Jockeys, either by their own choice or by trainer instruction, can hustle a horse early and get it to show uncharacteristic levels of early speed. Just as they can grab a hold of the horse, and rate it along through the early stages, going much slower than it typically would.

If a jockey/trainer thinks that a race is paceless or thinks that the track is speed biased... they're more likely to ride aggressive early. In situations where the pace figures to be contested, and the strongest horses are mid-pack or closer types...you'll often see multiple jockeys trying to hold their horses through the early stages.

Basically, the human factor and equipment changes are left up to the bettor.

A great example of the usefulness of the pace projector in a high profile race just happened with the Queen's Plate last Sunday:



At just a glance, it was crystal clear that Midnight Aria was projected to be absolutely isolated on a loose early lead. As it turned out, he was able to glide along on a loose early lead with no pressure. Midnight Aria parlayed the perfect trip into a wire-to-wire win at 16/1 odds.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

congrats on the new product line.doug cj. will you be doing any American pps for ascot and other big euro meets..?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That's a great question.

The pace projector is based off of past pace figures and running styles.

Blinkers are generally a speed enhancer and can sometimes fire up a horse early on, but they come in different cup sizes and it's very tough to quantify how much of an impact they will have on a horses early speed.

The pace projector is nice because it gives a quick and clean look at how the pace is expected to unfold based on past data... but it does not take into account the human factor or equipment changes like 1st blinkers. That part, is left up to the bettor.

The human factor is the other main thing that's hard to quantify. Jockeys, either by their own choice or by trainer instruction, can hustle a horse early and get it to show uncharacteristic levels of early speed. Just as they can grab a hold of the horse, and rate it along through the early stages, going much slower than it typically would.

If a jockey/trainer thinks that a race is paceless or thinks that the track is speed biased... they're more likely to ride aggressive early. In situations where the pace figures to be contested, and the strongest horses are mid-pack or closer types...you'll often see multiple jockeys trying to hold their horses through the early stages.

Basically, the human factor and equipment changes are left up to the bettor.

A great example of the usefulness of the pace projector in a high profile race just happened with the Queen's Plate last Sunday:



At just a glance, it was crystal clear that Midnight Aria was projected to be absolutely isolated on a loose early lead. As it turned out, he was able to glide along on a loose early lead with no pressure. Midnight Aria parlayed the perfect trip into a wire-to-wire win at 16/1 odds.

This is really brilliant for the weekend player or one who has limited time to commit to their handicapping because even if the human factor is such that the race isn't run to the Pace Projector, one can print and note the Projector on how the race was really run and the circumstances surrounding the result to move forward to the next starts for the horses involved. (particularly for Breeders' Cup)

(Your rating systems of races is also super-friendly to the player who has less time to commit.)

[tector]

Doug, great news--best of luck to you. No one deserves it more.

I remember when The Racing Times shook up the DRF 20+ years ago. I expect you and Timeform can do better than that and beat them at their own game, given the vastly decreased market entrance barriers afforded by modern technology.

I hope you get rich, sir!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by tector

Doug, great news--best of luck to you. No one deserves it more.

I remember when The Racing Times shook up the DRF 20+ years ago. I expect you and Timeform can do better than that and beat them at their own game, given the vastly decreased market entrance barriers afforded by modern technology.

I hope you get rich, sir!

No offense to CJ but the thing that actually interests me more than the figures on the product is that it sounds like it was created by someone involved in formulator and should be a direct competitor to formulator.

[dino]

Looks like a great site but Internet Explorer won't work. Tough eliminating 25% of the market.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dino

Looks like a great site but Internet Explorer won't work. Tough eliminating 25% of the market.

https://www.google.com/intl/en/chrome/browser/

http://www.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/new/

http://support.apple.com/kb/dl1531

[jms62]

Originally Posted by dino

Looks like a great site but Internet Explorer won't work. Tough eliminating 25% of the market.

Make that 55% but you having worked in the industry for 30+ already know that. A typo I guess. On another note I would think these guys are on the ball and are targeting the mobile market and html-5 so any issues with IE now are likely to disappear with upgraded versions of IE offering more HTML5 support.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

No offense to CJ but the thing that actually interests me more than the figures on the product is that it sounds like it was created by someone involved in formulator and should be a direct competitor to formulator.

Not offended...

[TheSpyder]

Congrates guys. Looks very interesting.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That's a great question.

The pace projector is based off of past pace figures and running styles.

Blinkers are generally a speed enhancer and can sometimes fire up a horse early on, but they come in different cup sizes and it's very tough to quantify how much of an impact they will have on a horses early speed.

The pace projector is nice because it gives a quick and clean look at how the pace is expected to unfold based on past data... but it does not take into account the human factor or equipment changes like 1st blinkers. That part, is left up to the bettor.

The human factor is the other main thing that's hard to quantify. Jockeys, either by their own choice or by trainer instruction, can hustle a horse early and get it to show uncharacteristic levels of early speed. Just as they can grab a hold of the horse, and rate it along through the early stages, going much slower than it typically would.

If a jockey/trainer thinks that a race is paceless or thinks that the track is speed biased... they're more likely to ride aggressive early. In situations where the pace figures to be contested, and the strongest horses are mid-pack or closer types...you'll often see multiple jockeys trying to hold their horses through the early stages.

Basically, the human factor and equipment changes are left up to the bettor.

A great example of the usefulness of the pace projector in a high profile race just happened with the Queen's Plate last Sunday:



At just a glance, it was crystal clear that Midnight Aria was projected to be absolutely isolated on a loose early lead. As it turned out, he was able to glide along on a loose early lead with no pressure. Midnight Aria parlayed the perfect trip into a wire-to-wire win at 16/1 odds.

Do you think analyzing trainers and/or jocks past races for times they had a horse that previously showed no front end speed but siezed the lead in a subsequent outing could provide some sort of usable metric?