Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Ahhhh....noted.

Thought Rosie was one of the few who understood how to ration speed well enough to give the filly a solid chance to win even with the limits of her distance pedigree but your far more aware of the subtlety's involved here with pace ...

Unlimited Budget is a horse that we have competitive on figures.

I just don't like her in this spot. She was a good 2yo Sales horse last year. Not a real fast work, but 21.60 and she had the best gallop out of any filly at that sale and she cost a ton of money for a Street Sense/Valid Appeal.

On top of being one who trained at the sales, she has done A Lot of developing from age 2 to 3. Compare her Demoiselle form to her 3yo form and compare Overanalyze's Remsen to his 3yo form.

Unlimited Budget has already developed like a healthy thriving colt is supposed to, where as Overanalyze hasn't developed any...which is weird for a colt who has stayed healthy and hasn't missed any training.

I flirted with the idea of taking a shot and picking/stabbing with Overanalyze to win this race as a "grow-up play" and with the idea that he is one of those Pletcher horses like Stay Thirsty who doesn't run a step at Churchill.

Overanalyze ran brutal at Churchill at age 2, and in his next start, bounced back to win the best 2yo race of the year in the Remsen. He didn't get any puffed up Florida form this winter for Pletcher, he actually won at Oaklawn, which had been a house of horrors for Pletcher prior to him winning there.

I don't usually make a big deal about jockeys, but I don't like that John Velazquez is on him. There are two guys in the room (Jose Lezcano and Junior Alvarado) who fit the horse very well, and they are guys I like on that type of horse in a race where I expect the pace to be fast and contested. IMO, You would have gained a little something on the track over Johnny V. with both guys, and from a betting standpoint, you would have gained higher odds with either one of those guys as well. But Velazquez gets the business in that barn and he's generally a good rider, just not a guy I like in the situation I envision on a horse like Overanalyze.