The 4 fastest Derby paces of all-time

[Calzone Lord]

I was still months from being born.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I was still months from being born.

That's just one of the reasons they are considered the good old days.

[10 pnt move up]

I apply this method of handicapping to most everyday races when playing, try to make it a touch simper then trying to figure out trainer intentions, patterns, etc.

[Calzone Lord]

The 5th fastest Derby half was Spanish Chestnut 45.38 the year Giacomo won.

The 6th fastest Derby half was Bodemeister in 45.39

I'll Have Another was just 8 lengths in back of that half...so he got a little taste of it.

Dullahan and Went The Day Well could only manage a 3rd and 4th place finish despite the big pace setup.

Dullahan was 12.5 lengths back after a half mile, he finished 3rd beaten less than 2 lengths. He was 7th in the Belmont Stakes as the 5/2 post time favorite next time out.

Went The Day Well was 18.5 lengths back after a half mile, he finished 4th beaten just 2.5 lengths in the Derby.

He was 10th beaten 30 lengths at 5/1 in the Preakness to I'll Have Another and Bodemeister.

Pleasant Colony, Ferdinand, Monarchos, Giacomo, and now Orb all capitalized on the setup.

But the record of deep closers who ran well in these Derby's, but didn't win, is downright gruesome.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Pleasant Colony, Ferdinand, Monarchos, Giacomo, and now Orb all capitalized on the setup.

.

So your saving the next couple weeks to load up against Orb in Baltimore!

[Calzone Lord]

On the +20/-12 method, all of the closers in the Derby are general bet againsts.

I've gotten away from worrying so much about big races over the years, the advantage situations are more plentiful if you seek them out at tracks all over the country.

There's no way I'm betting any of the closers in the Preakness. Loading up though? With who?

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Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

On the +20/-12 method, all of the closers in the Derby are general bet againsts.

I've gotten away from worrying so much about big races over the years, the advantage situations are more plentiful if you seek them out at tracks all over the country.

There's no way I'm betting any of the closers in the Preakness. Loading up though? With who?

It was more of a joke and a bit a play in the next two weeks about how Orb is going to be just about a cinch, when in history we hear that quite often coming into the Preakness.

I don't know if he is a cinch, race dynamics change where he is up against it and I would not be so sure he is good enough to overcome it. The "who" well, that's a bit tougher. Oxbow is the most likely horse out of the Derby run a winning type race.

[Calzone Lord]

The last time Oxbow had anything resembling a good trip, he won the Lecomte by 11.5 lengths over 2nd place finisher Golden Soul.

The same hapless Golden Soul who clunked up for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.

I hated Oxbow's two Arkansas races though, and it's hard for me to bet on Lukas...but he would have a good look in the Preakness if horses like Goldencents, Vyjack, and Itsmyluckyday would all stay away.

[wac]

thats what i was thinking Calzone. i will admit that i did bet on oxbow on sat b/c i knew the 1 would be left open and the first couple of horses to his outside werent spped horses. AFter the Ark derby i knew that gary would send him unfortunatley the pace was just too much but if he backs off of him the horse is gonna get shuffled back and probably headstrong and no one wins those battles. Calzone do you think that oxbow got a perfect trip except for the fractions and that he really isnt that good or do you see better things ahead for him? i just think this horse has some ability when he can get out there and cruise and for that reason i'd love to see him SKIP the preakness and go straight to NY. just my .02

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

On the +20/-12 method, all of the closers in the Derby are general bet againsts.

What are referencing with the +20/-12? Pace figs?

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Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What are referencing with the +20/-12? Pace figs?

pace to final time ratio using Craig's figures.

[Travis Stone]

Thanks. Sorry for typo... At a ballgame on phone.