DRF Derby: Points standings v. Graded Earnings

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The fastest 3yo in America is already excluded.

Dreaming Of Julia is going to have a gigantic edge in highest last out speed figure, on everyones speed figures, going into the Derby.

She's a Pletcher going from Gulfstream to Churchill, so she's certainly unlikely to repeat that performance, but War Emblem and Charismatic both recently won the Kentucky Derby at huge odds with the highest last out speed figure going in.

The people who defended this point system said it would keep undeserving fillies out ... well ... using the graded earnings system, here is a list of every single filly to race in the Kentucky Derby since 1945:

2010 Devil May Care
2008 Eight Belles
1999 Excellent Meeting
1999 Three Ring
1995 Serena's Song
1988 Winning Colors
1984 Life's Magic
1984 Althea
1982 Cupecoy's Joy
1980 Genuine Risk
1959 Silver Spoon

That's a grand total of just 11 fillies. And 2 of them won it.

I think the last filly to enter the Preakness was Rachel Alexandra, she won.

I think the last filly to enter the Belmont is Rags to Riches, she won.

More importantly, think of the way Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness. She got into a speed duel with eventual wire-to-wire Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama ... and she still held off the dream pace setup Derby winner.

More importantly, think of the way Rags To Riches won the Belmont. She stumbled badly at the start...and won a heroic stretch duel over a very respectable horse in 2-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

People don't foolishly enter fillies in classic races. Look at the last 70 years... it just doesn't happen, ever. Rachel Alexandra would have been the top figure horse going into the Derby, and she opted for the Oaks.

There are things in horse racing that are broke. The graded earnings system never was one of them.

It's a case of trying to fix what wasn't broke.

i think there is some tweaking that needs to be done, and giving points for filly races is one of them.
i do like the points program in that it weights for 3 yo over 2 yo racing, and seems to be encouraging more racing, fuller fields, and producing horses with good form going into the derby.