3/23 (TP): Spiral (G3), Bourbonette Oaks (G3), Rushaway

[Calzone Lord]

Another week, another upset.

I think there have been 7 of these "50 point" Derby preps so far, and as many 100+/1 longshots have won as have post-time favorites.

Two years ago, virtually every prep race was won by a mid-range price or double digit longshot.

Form can be fickle with 3-year-olds this time of year, and that has only been greatly accelerated by the way so many horses are lightly raced and very much babied along.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Another week, another upset.

I think there have been 7 of these "50 point" Derby preps so far, and as many 100+/1 longshots have won as have post-time favorites.

Two years ago, virtually every prep race was won by a mid-range price or double digit longshot.

Form can be fickle with 3-year-olds this time of year, and that has only been greatly accelerated by the way so many horses are lightly raced and very much babied along.

Brilliant post.

[Danzig]

doug, what are your thoughts on black onyx? he's certainly versatile, his win in the spiral is his third different surface victory. i like the breeding as well...

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by Danzig

doug, what are your thoughts on black onyx? he's certainly versatile, his win in the spiral is his third different surface victory. i like the breeding as well...

One of those three was not like the others. His dirt win was an off the turf affair. He ran credibly but not spectacularly. I loved this guy in his last two since first he was getting on the surface he was supposed to be on and second because he clearly was on the upswing and was sharp. Having the jock skip a Saturday card at GP for this race was a good sign as well. The only Derby I would love him for though is run in Virginia. I may put a token bet on him for the Kentucky Derby since he has treated me well (and dumber things have happened) and the distance will likely not be a problem but I can't see him liking the dirt that much. He's a grinder that is not afraid to pass horses and I think he can make a top half finish, but I don't look for him to be in the money.

[Danzig]

yeah, i agree about the virginia race being one he might be better suited for. but with animal kingdom winning the ky derby, i don't know that i can completely toss black onyx. thanks.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Danzig

yeah, i agree about the virginia race being one he might be better suited for. but with animal kingdom winning the ky derby, i don't know that i can completely toss black onyx. thanks.

Watchmaker's column about the races this weekend explores the Black Onyx-Animal Kingdom comparisons. You might find it interesting reading.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Watchmaker's column about the races this weekend explores the Black Onyx-Animal Kingdom comparisons. You might find it interesting reading.

You mean the article that, while comparing the two horses, fails to mention that while Animal Kingdom had never raced on dirt prior to the Derby, Black Onyx has already run a few times on dirt, and he immediately improved significantly on turf, and then synthetic. Seems to me that is a pretty important fact to just completely ignore.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

doug, what are your thoughts on black onyx? he's certainly versatile, his win in the spiral is his third different surface victory. i like the breeding as well...

The last time Black Onyx ran on dirt, he finished 17 lengths behind Gunderman... and Gunderman came back and finished 17 lengths behind Verrazano in his very next start.

I'm obviously not suggesting Verrazano is 34 lengths the better dirt horse, but using the honest Gunderman as a measuring stick makes it look that way.

I think Black Onyx probably is a turf/synthetic horse. His dirt form isn't impressive at all.