Has any horse in history ever done less & was 12/1 to win the Derby two months out?

[pweizer]

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

[santana]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Which of Bafferts horses should have been a lower price ?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by santana

Which of Bafferts horses should have been a lower price ?

Super Ninety Nine for sure.

[Calzone Lord]

Based on what can be measured after just 2 starts, I don't see anything to suggest Flashback is a better horse than fellow Baffert Governor Charlie.

A lot of stable hype has been there with Flashback since the start of his career.

[Linny]

Verrazzano was favored and hasn't run in a stake yet.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Linny

Verrazzano was favored and hasn't run in a stake yet.

Yes, but his most recent race was fantastic.

A horse he beat by 16.5 lengths last time just won an entry level alw race on dirt at Gulfstream last Saturday.

His figure was huge on everyones numbers and the performance was confirmed.

With Flashback, it is more about stable buzz and how he trains.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Goldencents is certainly more established. I may be a little interested in Salutos Amigos.

Oh, and of the Bafferts, I would take Super 99 over Flashback at double the price all day long.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

Who are you looking at in the field?

And given the hype and the Baffert factor, I would bet he goes off odds on.

Paul

[letswastemoney]

Tiz a Minister might be interesting considering he failed on synthetic and turf for most of his career, before winning a state-bred dirt stakes race over Omega Star. Maybe Tiz a Minister is a quality dirt horse.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Who are you looking at in the field?

And given the hype and the Baffert factor, I would bet he goes off odds on.

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

What about Omega Star? He should like the extra distance and will benefit from pace dynamics.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

What about Omega Star? He should like the extra distance and will benefit from pace dynamics.

Paul

I don't know that he's good enough, but he certainly project a perfect trip.

[santana]

I am just hoping Flashback is the real deal, just like i think he is....

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

Kochees adds blinkers 1st time and I think that moves him forward, energy looks good. Morning line for him is 15-1 so the price should be right.