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#1
02-11-2013, 09:49 AM
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#3
02-11-2013, 04:09 PM
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Speaking of the Derby, let's get this started!
 And we'll start with the obvious one - the Derby favourite herself, the one and only... HABIBI  3 f Ekraar - Danny Holiday Breeder: H J & P J Crofskey Owner: G P, H J & P J Crofskey and P A McIntyre Trainer: Donna & Dean Logan Jockey: Vinnie Colgan 5 starts 5 wins 0 seconds 0 thirds Major races: 1st Championship Stakes G2 1st Great Northern Guineas G2 Best replay to watch: Championship Stakes, Ellerslie, 1 January http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx Derby odds: 3.50 (favourite) + Undefeated in five + Winning so easily + Seems to be getting better with every race - The horses she's beaten haven't done great since. Championship Stakes runner-up Addictive Habit only managed a battling sixth in the Waikato Guineas earlier this month - The fact that she's never had a challenge could actually be a problem if she has one for the first time in the Derby! How will she handle having a horse stay with her? Of course she has to be the favourite at the moment. She's been flawless, and she's been on another level to her opposition so far. But in the last couple of weeks some better horses than the ones she's been beating have broken out. Can she beat them too? There's no reason to think she can't, but there's really only one way to find out!
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#4
02-12-2013, 02:05 PM
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YEA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!
So happy it's that time of the year and thank you for doing this once again! I mean it. Good luck to Pinzaara!
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#5
02-12-2013, 04:46 PM
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CASTLZEBERG
 3 g Castledale - Stylish Cent Breeder: Te Runga Stud Owner: Te Runga Stud (W Larsen) & R Vance Trainer: Jenny & Bob Vance Jockey: Danielle Johnson 5 starts 2 wins 3 seconds 0 thirds Major races: 1st Waikato Guineas G2 Best replay to watch: Waikato Guineas, Te Rapa, 2 February http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx Derby odds: 5.00 (2nd fav) + Definitely improving with every race - a six-length maiden win at his fourth start; all-the-way Guineas romp at his fifth + Beat the strongest field assembled on the Derby trail so far at Waikato - He was a maiden two starts ago, and he took four starts to get out of that grade. Have these two freak performances been a flash in the pan, or is he the real deal? - His bold front-running style isn't usually conducive to winning the gruelling mile-and-a-half NZ Derby. Castlzeberg has come from nowhere to be one of the leading chances. It's been a whirlwind rise, and it's still just a little hard to be sure that it's legitimate. We'll find out for sure this Sunday, when he lines up against the mighty Habibi in the Avondale Guineas.
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#7
02-13-2013, 09:27 AM
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Oh ed! I just watched it.... what a fantastic run!!!! Soooo close.
Congratulations.  It's like the Pinzaara / Pus$y O'Reilly show.  Thrilled for you and sorry you couldn't have been there. edit - Forgot we cannot write the word *****. 
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#8
02-13-2013, 06:36 PM
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WEISSMULLER
 3 g Handsome Ransom - Belongs In Lights Breeder: T Heptinstall & T Pivac Owner: T Heptinstall, T Pivac, D Platt, Hivon Syndicate, Sold Out Syndicate & M Cummings Trainer: John Kiernan Jockey: Johnathon Parkes 4 starts 2 wins 0 seconds 0 thirds Major races: 1st Wellington Stakes G3 Best replay to watch: Wellington Stakes, Trentham, 19 January http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx Derby odds: 8.00 (3rd fav) + His two wins have been absolutely breathtaking performances + His two unplaced performances have been in races where the tempo didn't really suit his style - the Derby is more likely to be suitable + Full-brother to Travolta, 5th in the Derby last year, and connections believe he's better - Even if the races weren't run to suit, he finished further back than you'd like to see in those other two races. If he'd run a similar race to the ones he produced in his wins, there's no way he'd have finished so far back in those other two. So there's a real element of inconsistency in his performance. - He's never raced the Ellerslie way around before. The real enigma of the Derby trail this year. Is the dominant Wellington Stakes winner the real Weissmuller, or is the distantly beaten effort in the Waikato Guineas a more accurate reflection of his true ability? It's really too soon to say. But if he's as good as he looked at Wellington, he's going to be a huge chance in the Derby.
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#9
02-14-2013, 10:14 AM
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Opie has the Castlzeberg mount on Sunday? Did something happen to Danielle Johnson or is it just cause he's, well... Opie?!
NICE field. It'll be interesting to see who ends up in 2nd and 3rd. I'm assuming you're going... if so please blow a kiss to Shuka. I know Silent Achiever wins this but he has such heart (.... and since he'll be right behind her...).
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#10
02-14-2013, 04:30 PM
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Yep, I'll be there! Can't wait. I'm not totally sure about Silent Achiever, actually, although I really want her to win. It's a sprint distance, her first start since November, and she's carrying a massive 61kg against a nice field. It's not going to be easy!
They've just decided to give Opie the mount for this race and the Derby. I can't blame them, I guess, but I feel sorry for Danielle. She rode the horse perfectly in the Guineas.
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#11
02-14-2013, 05:11 PM
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ZINKO
 3 g Shinko King - Tio Zinnia Breeder: H W Perry & T W Archer Trust Owner: M L O Williams, D Biddlecombe, I J Gray, D Jenkins & R Lawgun Trainer: Moira Murdoch & Dominic Olson Jockey: Leith Innes 6 starts 1 win 3 seconds 1 third Major races: 2nd Waikato Guineas G2 2nd Wellington Guineas G2 Best replay to watch: Waikato Guineas, Te Rapa, 2 February (2nd) http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx Derby odds: 10.00 (5th fav) + He's never run a bad race, no matter what grade. He's always right there at the finish. + Pedigree suggests the Derby distance should be totally fine. - He just never seems to win! His only win was a maiden back in early September. Running great races in stakes level from September all the way through to February, Zinko has been one of the more admirably consistent 3-year-olds throughout the season. There's no reason why he won't continue that and run another huge race in the Derby. But his inability to win these big races so far makes it hard to see him score a breakthrough win in the Derby. It's going to be a tough ask. But a solid placing is not beyond him at all. Last edited by _ed_ : 02-14-2013 at 08:24 PM.
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#12
02-19-2013, 03:04 AM
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CHOICE BRO
 3 c Choisir - Ladidi Breeder: R Pietrykowski Owner: G Wright, K Jones, R Edwards, G Burgess, L Topic & S Saric Trainer: John Sargent Jockey: Jonathan Riddell 12 starts 5 wins 1 second 1 third Major races: 1st Sires' Produce Stakes G1 (2yo) 1st Karaka Mile 4th Avondale Guineas G2 Best replay to watch: His spectacular win resuming after a seven-month lay-off, Awapuni, 12 January http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx Derby odds: 10.00 (5th fav) + Proven class - the only G1 winner in the field + In superb form, with two amazing wins in his first two starts this prep, then a solid and close fourth in the Avondale Guineas + Powerful-looking colt who physically looks suited to the distance. - His pedigree screams sprinter, miler at best. - No horse has won the G1 Sires at 2 and the Derby at 3 since Satisfy in 1987. One of the best 2yos last season, it's been great to see Choice Bro come back in such great form so far this summer. But there remains a huge question over his ability to run the 2400m of the Derby. That's likely to be the deciding factor in whether he's in contention as the field roars down the home stretch. Last edited by _ed_ : 02-19-2013 at 03:56 AM.
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#14
02-20-2013, 05:17 AM
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FIX
 3 f Iffraaj - Destined Breeder: Frantic Bloodstock & Haunui Farm Owner: G E Harding Trainer: Ken & Bev Kelso Jockey: Mark du Plessis 10 starts 6 wins 0 seconds 2 thirds Major races: 1st Eight Carat Classic G2 1st Royal Stakes G2 1st Sir Tristram Fillies' Classic G2 Best replay to watch: Sir Tristram Fillies' Classic, Te Rapa, 9 February http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx Derby odds: 6.00 (equal 2nd fav) + She's looked amazing winning three G2s in a row. + Has loads of courage and determination - tough battles down the stretch seem to bring out the very best in her. + Undefeated in three starts at Ellerslie - two at G2 level. - Although Silent Achiever did it last year, fillies don't have a great winning record in the Derby in recent years. - She's yet to race against the boys in stakes company. - Slight doubt over her stamina. - Rider Vinnie Colgan chose Habibi The Derby was never really considered as an option for Fix until recently - she wasn't even nominated, and now her connections have to pay a more than $20,000 late-entry fee. But her entry adds a ton of interest to the race, as she brings into it a fantastic string of wins in some of NZ's strongest 3-year-old-filly races. She's been outstanding, and she has earned her chance in the big one. If she can run out a strong 2400m, she's going to be hard to beat - she's proven she's an ultra-competitive filly with a huge amount of ability.
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#15
02-20-2013, 01:55 PM
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Quote:
Good luck, ed!!! Thanks again for all your hard work. At this (early) point if one horse were to upset would you have one you'd want it to be? I think as of right now mine is Zinko. Cannot see him beating a few of the probables BUT right at this moment? It's a fun thought!
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#16
02-20-2013, 08:18 PM
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Zinko has the pedigree to love the distance, so you could be right! He's never run a bad race in his life, and I'm sure he won't in the Derby either.
My upsetter might be a horse called Alert. We'll get to him in a day or two.
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