Ghostzapper charts

[philcski]

Originally Posted by avance2000

it is still fun to look at numbers like that sometimes.
in his last 5 races he had 4 beyer figs that exceeded 120. the one race where he didn't he only ran a 114 and beat future hoy saint liam.
not a bad string of races to end a career.

The 114 was a BS number anyways. they dropped it about 6-7 points because they weren't convinced SL was "worthy" of a higher number.
He actually ran closer to a 121.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

The 114 was a BS number anyways. they dropped it about 6-7 points because they weren't convinced SL was "worthy" of a higher number.
He actually ran closer to a 121.

I don't remember them dropping that Beyer. If they did, they dropped it very quickly.

As wide as St Liam took Ghostzapper around the turn, and as much as they leaned on each other down the stretch, I thought the 114 was as good as any of the 120's.

I lost a prop bet that day that Ghostzapper would win by a certain amount of daylight, but I came out of the race with huge respect for both horses.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't remember them dropping that Beyer. If they did, they dropped it very quickly.

As wide as St Liam took Ghostzapper around the turn, and as much as they leaned on each other down the stretch, I thought the 114 was as good as any of the 120's.

I lost a prop bet that day that Ghostzapper would win by a certain amount of daylight, but I came out of the race with huge respect for both horses.

--Dunbar

The number was published initially too low, then admitted by Beyer to be a single race variant. The times for the day were:

NYB MSW 2YO fillies @ 7F: 1:26.51
CLM 20K @ 6F: 1:10.73
MSW 3U fillies @ 1 mile: 1:38.10
MSW 2YO's @ 6.5F: 1:17.25
CLM 50K @ 1 mile: 1:36.72
MSW 2YO's @ 6.5F: 1:17.59 - won by Reverberate
ALW 3U fillies @ 7F: 1:23.37
The Gazelle G1 @ 9F: 1:48.25 - won by Stellar Jayne
The Woodward G1 @ 9F: 1:46.38 (:45.70, 1:08.75, 1:33.35 fractions!)

My figures were (approx Beyer):
85 (51)
102.2 (75)
97.7 (68)
102.1 (75)
107.0 (82.6)
99.8 (71.7)
106.2 (80.7)
116.1 (99.4)
129.4 (122)

[Buffymommy]

I just hope they are breeding him to strongly sound mares.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

The number was published initially too low, then admitted by Beyer to be a single race variant. The times for the day were:

NYB MSW 2YO fillies @ 7F: 1:26.51
CLM 20K @ 6F: 1:10.73
MSW 3U fillies @ 1 mile: 1:38.10
MSW 2YO's @ 6.5F: 1:17.25
CLM 50K @ 1 mile: 1:36.72
MSW 2YO's @ 6.5F: 1:17.59 - won by Reverberate
ALW 3U fillies @ 7F: 1:23.37
The Gazelle G1 @ 9F: 1:48.25 - won by Stellar Jayne
The Woodward G1 @ 9F: 1:46.38 (:45.70, 1:08.75, 1:33.35 fractions!)

My figures were (approx Beyer):
85 (51)
102.2 (75)
97.7 (68)
102.1 (75)
107.0 (82.6)
99.8 (71.7)
106.2 (80.7)
116.1 (99.4)
129.4 (122)

Thanks for the info. Do you remember what Beyer's rational was for using a single variant? What did they think happened between the Gazelle and the Woodward?

Your 122 approx Beyer would be the equiv of perhaps a 128-130 Beyer for a horse getting the same time but running near the rail. That seems a bit high for me, but who knows.

Another thing. You show an approximate Beyer of 99.4 for the Gazelle. With a time diff of less than 2 secs slower than the Woodward, wouldn't the Beyer diff be less than 17. Your approx figs show a diff of 22.6, which seems to big to me, unless you, too, are using diff variants.

At any rate, I think we agree the Woodward was an amazing race for both horses.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Thanks for the info. Do you remember what Beyer's rational was for using a single variant? What did they think happened between the Gazelle and the Woodward?

Your 122 approx Beyer would be the equiv of perhaps a 128-130 Beyer for a horse getting the same time but running near the rail. That seems a bit high for me, but who knows.
Another thing. You show an approximate Beyer of 99.4 for the Gazelle. With a time diff of less than 2 secs slower than the Woodward, wouldn't the Beyer diff be less than 17. Your approx figs show a diff of 22.6, which seems to big to me, unless you, too, are using diff variants.

At any rate, I think we agree the Woodward was an amazing race for both horses.

--Dunbar

If you recall, in his race before he ran a 128 Beyer and I had it at LEAST that, if not a point or two higher (Mth is tough at that distance because they don't run a lot of races at a mile and an eighth, but it came out to a 133 on my numbers or approximately a 129 Beyer) At the time I had a hard time believing the Woodward number because i didn't think much of St. Liam, but obviously he proved his worth and ability to run very fast. Beyer agreed with my original assessment that St. Liam wasn't nearly that fast which is the reason they had a 1 race variant.

As far as the difference goes between the Gazelle and the Woodward, I used a single variant on the day- the difference of 129 to 116 on my figures is 13 lengths (1 point = 1 length) so the Beyer number difference may be in my conversion. I have found it's approximately [72 - (100 - my figure)*(factor)] where the factor is based on the distance run since 1 point on Beyer's scale at 10F is different from 1 point at 5F. The factor I use at 9F is 1.7, right or wrong is up for debate, but it's the best match I can find.

I rewatched the race last night, what an incredible performance. I feel bad for the guy in the BC who had the only pick 6 live but didn't have GZ, whereever he is... he should have watched this race.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

If you recall, in his race before he ran a 128 Beyer and I had it at LEAST that, if not a point or two higher (Mth is tough at that distance because they don't run a lot of races at a mile and an eighth, but it came out to a 133 on my numbers or approximately a 129 Beyer) At the time I had a hard time believing the Woodward number because i didn't think much of St. Liam, but obviously he proved his worth and ability to run very fast. Beyer agreed with my original assessment that St. Liam wasn't nearly that fast which is the reason they had a 1 race variant.

I could be wrong, but I thought that St. Liam had run at least a 113 earlier that year. It seems odd that Beyer would force Ghostzapper's number down to 114 (from a previous 128) if St Liam had already shown he could run at a 113 level. If the Beyer guys were being arbitrary (ie, disregarding the earlier races), it would have made more sense to use something like a 118-120. That would not have been a hard-to-believe jump for St. Liam, and would have made the other horses' BSFs more believable. It's not like Beyer never gives a horse 5-10 pts more than an earlier career best.

Ghostzapper and St Liam finished more than 9 lengths ahead of the other 5 horses in the field, and I think all of them had shown themselves capable of running 100+ BSF's. But with the 114 fig for GZ and SL, each of those other 5 horses must have earned a sub-100 BSF. (or at the most, a 100 BSF)

Originally Posted by philcski

As far as the difference goes between the Gazelle and the Woodward, I used a single variant on the day- the difference of 129 to 116 on my figures is 13 lengths (1 point = 1 length) so the Beyer number difference may be in my conversion. I have found it's approximately [72 - (100 - my figure)*(factor)] where the factor is based on the distance run since 1 point on Beyer's scale at 10F is different from 1 point at 5F. The factor I use at 9F is 1.7, right or wrong is up for debate, but it's the best match I can find.

Using 13 lengths, your approx Beyers are consistent. But 13 lengths for the 1.87 sec difference in finishing time is 7 lengths per sec. Is that your standard rule-of-thumb?

Originally Posted by philcski

I rewatched the race last night, what an incredible performance. I feel bad for the guy in the BC who had the only pick 6 live but didn't have GZ, whereever he is... he should have watched this race.

Do you have a link for that? I watched it relatively recently, too, but now I can't remember where. Thanks.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I could be wrong, but I thought that St. Liam had run at least a 113 earlier that year. It seems odd that Beyer would force Ghostzapper's number down to 114 (from a previous 128) if St Liam had already shown he could run at a 113 level. If the Beyer guys were being arbitrary (ie, disregarding the earlier races), it would have made more sense to use something like a 118-120. That would not have been a hard-to-believe jump for St. Liam, and would have made the other horses' BSFs more believable. It's not like Beyer never gives a horse 5-10 pts more than an earlier career best.

Ghostzapper and St Liam finished more than 9 lengths ahead of the other 5 horses in the field, and I think all of them had shown themselves capable of running 100+ BSF's. But with the 114 fig for GZ and SL, each of those other 5 horses must have earned a sub-100 BSF. (or at the most, a 100 BSF)



Using 13 lengths, your approx Beyers are consistent. But 13 lengths for the 1.87 sec difference in finishing time is 7 lengths per sec. Is that your standard rule-of-thumb?



Do you have a link for that? I watched it relatively recently, too, but now I can't remember where. Thanks.

--Dunbar

Saint Liam had gone 108/113/108 going into that race.

Seek Gold going in had Beyer's of 93/92/99 and got an 86 for his 4th place finish in the Woodward. His next three after the race were 92/99/108.

Midway Road ran a 70 Beyer that day finishing 6th. He'd run a 106 in his previous race and ran 107 next out. He ran an 83 when he stunk up the Foster two races prior to the Woodward.

Presidential Affair was last with a 53 Beyer, he hadn't been under 80 in his past 13 starts and was only under 90 in three of those.

Unfortunately I can't find figures for Bowman's Band who was 3rd and Newfoundland who was 5th.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I could be wrong, but I thought that St. Liam had run at least a 113 earlier that year. It seems odd that Beyer would force Ghostzapper's number down to 114 (from a previous 128) if St Liam had already shown he could run at a 113 level. If the Beyer guys were being arbitrary (ie, disregarding the earlier races), it would have made more sense to use something like a 118-120. That would not have been a hard-to-believe jump for St. Liam, and would have made the other horses' BSFs more believable. It's not like Beyer never gives a horse 5-10 pts more than an earlier career best.

Ghostzapper and St Liam finished more than 9 lengths ahead of the other 5 horses in the field, and I think all of them had shown themselves capable of running 100+ BSF's. But with the 114 fig for GZ and SL, each of those other 5 horses must have earned a sub-100 BSF. (or at the most, a 100 BSF)



Using 13 lengths, your approx Beyers are consistent. But 13 lengths for the 1.87 sec difference in finishing time is 7 lengths per sec. Is that your standard rule-of-thumb?



Do you have a link for that? I watched it relatively recently, too, but now I can't remember where. Thanks.

--Dunbar

go to Youtube and search for "Ghostzapper Belmont" and it'll come up...

my rule of thumb for lengths-per-second is actually calculated by the speed of the race, rather than an arbitrary designation, which I believe gives a more accurate number.