P6-FEST: Brad Free on HOL

[Pedigree Ann]

I hesitate to post anything on here, as I am not a specialist in handicapping. (Pedigrees are my thing; well, history, too.)

3rd 1,4 : both parts of the entry look good to me, the straight 1 comes from a solid family and has the Secretariat/Sir Gaylord thing going for her. The 4 is also from a solid family, Sherman good second off the claim (31%)

4th: 4 , yes I see Ferndale Sal in here, but I doubt he can get up when the 1 leads the 4 through fractions of approx 24 and 48. The 4 will sit off the slow pace and keep on in a one-paced style. (My take - could be totally wrong).

5th: 7,8; I think this is a ton o' speed race - I count 6 horses who want to be up on or close to the lead. Sets it up for a closer, going with the best looking ones IMHO.

6th: 3 ; If the blinkers on don't turn the 4 into a speed demon (and her works since her last race don't indicate it), 3 will have the lead to herself; first drop into claimers, should be able to keep going.

7th: 4 ; Don't like horses going 7f first off the layoff - 6f, yes, 7f no. I see the 3 and 5 going at it thru the early furlongs, and the 4 picking up the pieces.

8th: 2,6 ; 6 gets a jock upgrade, has been close in this sort of race. Two sprints to get fit, then the stretch out on turf, with blinkers off for Mullins is the 2's angle. The 2 is bred to be a turfer, dam a Royal Academy mare who was a half-sister to a monster mare named Horlicks - Japan Cup winner, won 5 G1s in Australia and New Zealand on turf.

Okay, educate me. What am I overlooking? what am I paying too much attention to? Always trying to learn more.