Is this Beyer wrong?

[Calzone Lord]

She didn't show up again and was trounced a long way at 2/1 odds today.

Dehere offspring have those mind-boggling ROI numbers on debut from such a huge sample size ... not necessarily because the offspring are precocious, but because they tend to fool clockers and trainers with how they train. They over-perform initial placement and expectations.

Pull up the past performances on them, and you'll see that pattern jump out at you after you've looked at more than a hundred of them.

Dehere's usually aren't the hardiest of horses...and the mother was ultra game, but not exactly hardy. Pedigree is extremely tilted to sprint VS route... though your trainer does a good job at getting horses to route.

I would say don't even bother with the Fairgrounds. She hasn't shown up twice in a row, she's bred best for poly, and she's an ILLI bred.

Rest her until Arlington, sprint her, and space her races and you'll get the best out of her.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

She didn't show up again and was trounced a long way at 2/1 odds today.

Dehere offspring have those mind-boggling ROI numbers on debut from such a huge sample size ... not necessarily because the offspring are precocious, but because they tend to fool clockers and trainers with how they train. They over-perform initial placement and expectations.

Pull up the past performances on them, and you'll see that pattern jump out at you after you've looked at more than a hundred of them.

Dehere's usually aren't the hardiest of horses...and the mother was ultra game, but not exactly hardy. Pedigree is extremely tilted to sprint VS route... though your trainer does a good job at getting horses to route.

I would say don't even bother with the Fairgrounds. She hasn't shown up twice in a row, she's bred best for poly, and she's an ILLI bred.

Rest her until Arlington, sprint her, and space her races and you'll get the best out of her.

We never really belonged in this spot today but because of being stranded, it was better then her staying in the barn, we now know that she absolutely isn't a route horse, and she probably isn't a dirt horse either. How or why they were betting her today was beyond me

She was never gonna race at the Fairgrounds, the plan all along was for her to be turned out for 60 days and then get ready for races at Arlington going 6f-8f on poly, and we would probably give her a shot on the turf also for the hell of it.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Scav

How or why they were betting her today was beyond me

A lot of people still don't trust speed figures.

However, If that race was run in the year 1972, she probably would have been a 4/5 favorite instead of 2/1.