SAT 11/3 (SA): Breeders' Cup (Fields Post-Draw; Odds)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tywizard

What is the rationale for Brilliant Speed going in the Classic?

Final career start and already has established his modest turf credentials. More upside in taking a shot that you do something good in the biggest Classic Distance race on dirt. If he doesn't run well, it doesn't diminish what he was beforehand and if he pulls a Drosselmeyer/Giant's Causeway effort out of his azz you've hit a home run as he starts his stallion career.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Final career start and already has established his modest turf credentials. More upside in taking a shot that you do something good in the biggest Classic Distance race on dirt. If he doesn't run well, it doesn't diminish what he was beforehand and if he pulls a Drosselmeyer/Giant's Causeway effort out of his azz you've hit a home run as he starts his stallion career.

Makes sense. Just making sure I'm not missing something. Thanks,

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Final career start and already has established his modest turf credentials. More upside in taking a shot that you do something good in the biggest Classic Distance race on dirt. If he doesn't run well, it doesn't diminish what he was beforehand and if he pulls a Drosselmeyer/Giant's Causeway effort out of his azz you've hit a home run as he starts his stallion career.

He'd be a surprise of pretty significant proportions, but you have to appreciate the sporting mentality and wish it carried over into all horsemen the rest of the year too.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

He'd be a surprise of pretty significant proportions, but you have to appreciate the sporting mentality and wish it carried over into all horsemen the rest of the year too.

So you want horseman to run overmatched horses in impossible spots all year long not just the Breeders Cup?

Is it really "sporting" to try to throw a hail mary in an attempt to dress up your potential stallions weak resume? Seems like more of a typical modern day money grab regardless of how futile it most likely will be.

I dont think winning the Classic after having modest at best credentials makes you a viable stallion prospect for any serious money. See Cat Thief, Volponi, ect.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

So you want horseman to run overmatched horses in impossible spots all year long not just the Breeders Cup?

Is it really "sporting" to try to throw a hail mary in an attempt to dress up your potential stallions weak resume? Seems like more of a typical modern day money grab regardless of how futile it most likely will be.

I dont think winning the Classic after having modest at best credentials makes you a viable stallion prospect for any serious money. See Cat Thief, Volponi, ect.

You're overstating what I meant. I was speaking in more general terms about horsemen cherry picking spots, avoiding big match-ups, finding soft overnight stakes etc.

Worth noting that most people thought Cat Thief and Volponi were also overmatched and impossible too (not a Brilliant Speed endorsement). And yes, a BC Classic win doesn't seem to boost stallion value as much as one might think going in.

[Kasept]

PRE-ENTRY PP'S

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

PRE-ENTRY PP'S

The Classic is the only race that is going to be on network TV?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The Classic is the only race that is going to be on network TV?

NBC proper, yeah. Rest on the 'NBC Family of Networks'...

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

You're overstating what I meant. I was speaking in more general terms about horsemen cherry picking spots, avoiding big match-ups, finding soft overnight stakes etc.

Worth noting that most people thought Cat Thief and Volponi were also overmatched and impossible too (not a Brilliant Speed endorsement). And yes, a BC Classic win doesn't seem to boost stallion value as much as one might think going in.

The best way to eliminate the cherry picking is to eliminate a lot of the stakes. There are just too many stakes races considering the overall number of races has been going down for years yet the number of stakes keeps increasing. The overnight stakes should either be restricted (no good for blacktype) or be handicaps. Everyone cried about handicaps and how they were chasing all the good horses into retirement yet once we elimintated the majority of them the trend is as bad as ever. Of course my usual rant about horses being distributed more evenly would help.

Cat Thief won the Swaps and was 2nd in the Haskell, Fountain of youth, Bluegrass (on dirt), was 3rd in KY Derby, FL Derby and KY Cup Classic (on dirt). He was far, far more qualified than Brilliant Speed who wouldnt be favored in a 3x allowance race on the dirt. Volponi did run 2nd in the Meadowlands Cup which was a grade 2, $400k race prior to the Classic.

Why Brilliant Speed was never tried on synthetics again after his Bluegrass win (over pretty pathetic field) is puzzling considering this pretty hopeless shot at the Classic.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Final career start and already has established his modest turf credentials. More upside in taking a shot that you do something good in the biggest Classic Distance race on dirt. If he doesn't run well, it doesn't diminish what he was beforehand and if he pulls a Drosselmeyer/Giant's Causeway effort out of his azz you've hit a home run as he starts his stallion career.

Makes sense....
2 things though. His Belmont was not very good, against not very good horses.
Did you just compare the best stallion in the world to Drosselmeyer?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

If he doesn't run well, it doesn't diminish what he was beforehand and if he pulls a Drosselmeyer/Giant's Causeway effort out of his azz you've hit a home run as he starts his stallion career.

Giant's Causeway was a European Horse of the Year with a sensational American pedigree (Storm Cat-Mariah's Storm) and he ran a monster race in the BC Classic. In fact, he ran a monster race pretty much everytime he started in his entire career.

Drosselmeyer was never a turf horse.

Volponi was a horse campaigned a lot on turf.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Giant's Causeway was a European Horse of the Year with a sensational American pedigree (Storm Cat-Mariah's Storm) and he ran a monster race in the BC Classic. In fact, he ran a monster race pretty much everytime he started in his entire career.

Drosselmeyer was never a turf horse. Volponi was a horse campaigned a lot on turf.

This topic came up the other day and Haskin talked extensively about Volponi. Johnson tinkered a lot with him with blinkers and would run him in spates on turf. Steve noted that every time Johnson would take blinkers off, Volponi would respond with a huge effort. He came back as a 5yo so he certainly didn't have had a stud deal in place before the Classic.

Drosselmeyer wasn't a grass horse but started his career on turf and ran in the Sword Dancer that summer. Weren't Mott & WinStar considering the Marathon for him before going in the Classic? He had that stallion deal in place to come to New York before the big win. When it comes to Brilliant Speed, Jerry Brown has said unendingly that he should have been run more on the dirt.

The Euro star on dirt in the Classic always interesting. Sahkee. Giant's Causeway. Swain. Chester House. Raven's Pass.