Win streak attempt

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Soundly beaten second at 1/5. You were right when you started this quest. It is so much harder to pick ten winners in a row than to pick any number of losers. Still, I hope you try again as this was great fun to follow.

Paul

Thanks. Yeah, a lot can go wrong.

I made an error in assuming that horse would scratch for the richer race.

As good as Gantry is -- he only has a late pace figure of 54 on CJ's numbers -- once he got trapped -- he had absolutely no chance in the world to run an 11 final 1/8th and win the race. He just has never finished like that ever before.

[Calzone Lord]

The final quarter mile was run in 22.60 seconds. Races never come home that fast on dirt.

After being trapped and rating off of the winners heels, he had to wheel out under 124lbs, and make up a 2-length cushion into the teeth of a 22.60 final quarter when his late pace figure is no better than that of a good alw horse.

The funny part is, I bet the jockey probably believed the horse was capable of doing it.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The final quarter mile was run in 22.60 seconds. Races never come home that fast on dirt.

After being trapped and rating off of the winners heels, he had to wheel out under 124lbs, and make up a 2-length cushion into the teeth of a 22.60 final quarter when his late pace figure is no better than that of a good alw horse.

The funny part is, I bet the jockey probably believed the horse was capable of doing it.

This is great..I was talking to Ron about the race here at Evangeline Training Center and he said the jockey told him that Gantry hung a litlle bit the last part...lol

[pweizer]

But that's the thing. A million things can happen in a race. Bad breaks, equipment issues, deal rails, etc. that are impossible to predict. Bad rides are also far too commonplace to take 1/5 on anything. I give you a lot of credit for trying this. If you couldn't pull it off, it really shows just how hard this is.

On the other hand, isolating horses with no chance is certainly easier as all the breaks in the world will not make a hopelessly slow horse fast.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

I think it certainly can be done -- it's just VERY hard to do on one attempt.

You really need 10 healthy horses (I got them in every race this challenge. They all fired. It may not look it, but Gantry ran to his par today)

If I had to do it over -- I'd put more emphasis on taking horses with superior late pace.

The only two horses that didn't win with ease -- were both ridden very passively, trapped inside until the stretch, and didn't have the best late pace rating in the field going into their races.

[cmorioles]

This one scared me when I saw the other horse was still in. You could have found an easier one if you thought the other wouldn't scratch, but you know that I'm sure.

[Indian Charlie]

The thing with jockeys is that they are far more likely to help your horse lose than they are to help your horse win.

[Calzone Lord]

I should have stuck with just picking Presque Isle Downs today.

My Best Bet in the paper won and paid $6.80 and my "Best Value of the day" won the last race as the top pick and paid $14.60 to win.



Also had a cold exacta that paid $104.20 in the last race -- and the 2nd place finisher was 9.5 lengths clear of the third horse.


http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120908&RN=8


Good day of betting locally. The Master has produced the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare sprint winner the last 3 years -- and Groupie Doll will probably make it the 4th year in a row.

[Calzone Lord]

One final thing about this thread -- I think it is a great illustration of the value of a rebate.

Obviously, you'd have done WAY better in a betting exchange than with a rebate because people like to oppose short priced favorites at small tracks. As Brock noted -- he was able to get 7-to-10 odds at Betfair on a winner that paid $2.20 and one of the winners who paid $2.60 at Emerald Downs traded at better than even money for a little while.

Even though a betting exchange is obviously preferred -- here is a comparison of how you'd do with a 7% rebate like the one Pinnacle was always known for VS betting at the windows.

Had you bet $100 on each horse to win:

With rebate: You'd be ahead $151
Without rebate: You'd be ahead just $95


If you attempted to do a $100 win parlay:

With rebate:

$147 - $164.64 - $208.92 - $285.88 - $476.83 - $652.95 - $763.79 - Ended up with $54.20 after a horse finally was defeated.

Without rebate:

$140 - $147 - $176.40 - $229.20 - $366.60 - $476.40 - $524 - $0


As you can see -- with the rebate, you'd have run the $100 up to $763.79 before finally losing -- and even though you lost -- the rebate from the losing bet, plus the leftover change, would you leave you with $54.20 ... that means the $100 parlay would have been just a $45.80 loser when a horse finally lost.

Without the rebate -- you'd have only run your initial $100 up to $524 -- and you would be left with zero once a horse lost.

In conclusion -- a betting exchange is great for backing standout horses. It is okay to back these type of horses if you get a rebate.

If you can't do a betting exchange, or you're not getting a rebate, you're getting raped with these type of horses. Even if you show a profit with them -- you're getting gouged badly.