why does Mike Smith get so much bash on forums?

[10 pnt move up]

The pace was moderate to slow in the WV Derby, if anything he should have take the lead much earlier.

[10 pnt move up]

To put into context how poorly Hansen ran

Tapizar who is a solid grade 2/3 type horse on the lead when healthy, kinda similar to Hansen in many ways ran a comparable race just minutes earlier

Tapizar 23 2/5, 46 2/5, 110, 135 2/5
Hansen 24 1/5, 47 1/5, 111 1/5, 136 3/5

The 37/1 shot that was speed balling with Hansen finished fifth.

Maybe Tapizar is just that much better and faster than Hansen? I like it less when a rider takes a confirmed speed horse and tries to rate them, Hansen would have still lost cause he aint that good but I would have rather seen him loose on the lead, maybe Martins horse could have gone Tapizar fractions, I am fairly certain Hansen could have.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The pace was moderate to slow in the WV Derby, if anything he should have take the lead much earlier.

The pace wasn't 'moderate to slow' -- it was fairly quick and contested.

Bourban Courage, a horse who won his debut wire-to-wire with a 103 Beyer going 6 furlongs, was 13 lengths back after a quarter mile.

La Bernardin, a horse who won his debut wire-to-wire going six furlongs with a 91 Beyer, was 15 lengths back after a quarter mile.

Mountaineer is an oddly configured racetrack and you're comparing fractions at two different distances (8.5f VS 9f)

Tapizar is basically a 4yo version of Hansen. He got a loose lead and Nakatani let him go. Hansen didn't get a loose lead.

As for the raw pace figures of the two races -- they look like this...

Tapizar race: 104 95 93

West Va Derby: 100 90 89


Tapizar is not a slow horse -- he was 3rd by just 1.5 lengths after a half mile behind The Factor and Shackleford in last years Breeders Cup Dirt Mile -- a race that collaposed. The two horses last and next to last early were Caleb's Posse, who won by 4 lengths at 6/1 and Tres Borrachos 3rd at 30/1.

Tapizar and Hansen -- much like Shackleford -- are speed horses that perform much better with uncontested early leads. Tapizar ran faster, but he was loose and didn't have anyone hooping and hollering and going head-to-head with him.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The pace wasn't 'moderate to slow' -- it was fairly quick and contested.

Bourban Courage, a horse who won his debut wire-to-wire with a 103 Beyer going 6 furlongs, was 13 lengths back after a quarter mile.

La Bernardin, a horse who won his debut wire-to-wire going six furlongs with a 91 Beyer, was 15 lengths back after a quarter mile.

Mountaineer is an oddly configured racetrack and you're comparing fractions at two different distances (8.5f VS 9f)

Tapizar is basically a 4yo version of Hansen. He got a loose lead and Nakatani let him go. Hansen didn't get a loose lead.

As for the raw pace figures of the two races -- they look like this...

Tapizar race: 104 95 93

West Va Derby: 100 90 89


Tapizar is not a slow horse -- he was 3rd by just 1.5 lengths after a half mile behind The Factor and Shackleford in last years Breeders Cup Dirt Mile -- a race that collaposed. The two horses last and next to last early were Caleb's Posse, who won by 4 lengths at 6/1 and Tres Borrachos 3rd at 30/1.

Tapizar and Hansen -- much like Shackleford -- are speed horses that perform much better with uncontested early leads. Tapizar ran faster, but he was loose and didn't have anyone hooping and hollering and going head-to-head with him.

my contention is Hansen might have run better running the fractions Tapizar did if it got him loose, and 8.5 to 9.0 just is not the huge distance gap in my mind that you are making it out. He certainly was not done in because he tracked 2wide on that pace.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

my contention is Hansen might have run better running the fractions Tapizar did if it got him loose, and 8.5 to 9.0 just is not the huge distance gap in my mind that you are making it out. He certainly was not done in because he tracked 2wide on that pace.

It actually is a pretty big difference pace wise. The difference between the two distances at the 1/2 mile call is more than a half second.

I tend to agree about the "loose" part, though there is no indication that going faster would have led to him being loose. If the rider on the other horse had it in his plans that Hansen wasn't getting away, he wouldn't get away.