Level Playing Field

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by phystech

My trainer ran a horse at Penn National tonight. She ran 4th and was claimed. Not a problem as claiming owners expect to get claimed. She was taken in a 3 way shake. Has no conditions, knocked out her N1X back in Dec, so now she's in jail for 30 days and must move up if she runs back in less than 30. Kind of interesting there were 3 people in for a horse with no conditions.

This horse was running back for $5K, after being claimed for $5K in her last start, which she won by two lengths, after dropping from $12.5K. I'm honestly curious, why is it even remotely surprising there was a shake for her? To me, it would have been surprising if there wasn't. She's a 5YO with 47 starts, including 17 in 2011, thus if anything she has shown to be very sound.

[Calzone Lord]

Here are the forms of the top four finishers in this race.

The Jamie Ness trained winner went 22 1/5 -- 44 3/5 and drew off to win by 8 lengths under a hand ride in a sharp 1:09.68 for 5K claiming fillies. Finally, the Ness improvement came after a very disappointing win at Delaware first off-the-claim.




This horse was 2nd beaten 8 lengths:




These two horses were 3rd and 4th and both beaten 10 lengths:







The real question should have been... what took Ness so long! He didn't get the true Ness hop until the 2nd time out.

[Alabama Stakes]

a better question might be did you ever hear of starter allowance races ? why would want to lose him anyway ? why did he take the fronts off right away?

[jms62]

I may be wrong but I think he has more of an issue with the trainer moving the horse up as much as he did rather then losing him in a claim.

[Alabama Stakes]

fronts off, a radio in the stall playing dead shows from Boston 1991, happy hoss, faster hoss.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Speed that doesn't appear to want a foot past a mile cutting back? That's Ness' wheelhouse. You should have been able to bet on how far, not if he won.

[Linny]

Did the guy who ran the 2nd place finisher want to lose his horse? She wins a statebred A1x, then an open A1x and next out she's in for $5k? Might be a good claim, might have a wheel coming off. Granted the A2x's might be too much, but $5k?

As for why the claim, I don't know. Maybe they are willing to wait out the jail or if they run her back too high someone takes her and they get more than they paid after 2 weeks. They run her back at $6250 (maybe wrong distance etc) and she runs slow and then out of jail and back to $5k.

As for Ness (and his ilk) it must be frustrating. Looking at this horse, the big change was using a leading jock rather than a 5lb bug. From the side of a handicapper and bettor, I find races with these guys in them to be inscrutable. What do you do when Ness, Vasquez, Robertson and Anthony Dutrow make up 80% of the field?

[phystech]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This horse was running back for $5K, after being claimed for $5K in her last start, which she won by two lengths, after dropping from $12.5K. I'm honestly curious, why is it even remotely surprising there was a shake for her? To me, it would have been surprising if there wasn't. She's a 5YO with 47 starts, including 17 in 2011, thus if anything she has shown to be very sound.

A little more background for you - I've owned this horse a few times before and we've won 9 races with her. So, I kind of know the horse. She's a solid $5k mare.

PennNat has a 30 day jail - you have to move 'em up 25% in claiming price, including starter races - can't even go in a $5k starter for 30 days. So, her next race within 30 days has to be for $C6.25k, $6.25k starter or higher - and the $C6.25k doesn't seem to go very often.

Take a closer look at her pp's. She ran for $C12.5k and $C8k at PennNat - and she really wasn't close. The drop was logical last time, and running back for the same tag made sense too. And it's not the claim I wonder about as it is not surprising the former owner/trainer came back and got her again. It's the shake for a horse with no conditions that confuses me. If she runs back in less than 30 days, she's got no spot to go in next time but back into a race she has been beaten soundly in recently.