Fever spike knocks Alpha out of Belmont..

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I was never a massive Eddington fan, but to say he had "no shot" in the 2004 Belmont is a little over the top. By that logic, neither did Rock Hard Ten? Eddington was a millionaire GI winner for God's sake.

The opening half mile in that years Belmont was 48.65 (slow pace)

The middle half mile in that years Belmont was 46.79 (an absolutely sizzling midde half!)

The final half mile in that years Belmont was 52.06 seconds (pretty slow)

Basically -- all of the real running happened during the second half mile in that race. And it happened because Rock Hard Ten attacked Smarty Jones at an incredibly pre-mature stage of the race.

[Calzone Lord]

Here was Royal Assault's running line:



He ran the most efficient race possible.

He was about 2 lengths back after a quarter, 3.5 lengths back after a half mile -- when the race horse race started -- he plummeted to 17 lengths back after a mile -- and he gained a lot of ground in the stretch to finish 3rd beaten 9 lengths ahead of horses like Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge ... three horses that he couldn't dream of even warming up.

[Calzone Lord]

Amazingly, to Birdstone's credit, he only lost 2 lengths of ground during that supersonic middle half mile.

He was 5th by 3 lengths after a half mile and 4th by 5 lengths after a mile.

Five of the nine horses in that race lost more than 11 lengths through the middle half mile.

It was basically where all the real running occurred.

Smarty Jones deserved to win that race, but Birdstone wasn't super lucky. He also had to work hard in the middle and ran ok.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Amazingly, to Birdstone's credit, he only lost 2 lengths of ground during that supersonic middle half mile.

He was 5th by 3 lengths after a half mile and 4th by 5 lengths after a mile.

Five of the nine horses in that race lost more than 11 lengths through the middle half mile.

It was basically where all the real running occurred.

Smarty Jones deserved to win that race, but Birdstone wasn't super lucky. He also had to work hard in the middle and ran ok.

If people went back and actually watched that Belmont, they have to be very surprised at how close Birdstone was the entire race. It was far from a situation where he sucked up into a collapsed race.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If people went back and actually watched that Belmont, they have to be very surprised at how close Birdstone was the entire race. It was far from a situation where he sucked up into a collapsed race.

watching that race with my pops, I remember going into the stretch, I said to my dad "uh oh. That 4 is gaining on him" I didn't bet the race (beside a souvenir win ticket), so I didn't even know that the 4 was Birdstone until later in the stretch. But did anyone? Was over 30-1 right?