Super Tuesday in Erie and I won't be on hand

[slotdirt]

Nothing to add except I'm impressed with a 23.5 length win at pretty much any level.

ETA - having checked out the race replay, it was visually impressive as well.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Nothing to add except I'm impressed with a 23.5 length win at pretty much any level.

ETA - having checked out the race replay, it was visually impressive as well.

Here's the video of the race for anyone who hasn't watched it and wants to see it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzRhU...ature=youtu.be

You might want to mute it. I spliced it and hit upload so fast that the call is pretty messed up.

[slotdirt]

I realize we're talking about a horse winning its debut by a zillion lengths at MNR, but the jock never asked the horse to run even once. It will be interesting to see if there's anything more to the horse.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I realize we're talking about a horse winning its debut by a zillion lengths at MNR, but the jock never asked the horse to run even once. It will be interesting to see if there's anything more to the horse.

He went 3.80 seconds faster than the split heat.

So, had he run in the other open MSW division for males that day -- he would have won that race by 20+ lengths as well.

That's by far the fastest Mountaineer Park debuter I ever recall ... but it looks like the inside-speed friendly nature of the track that day flattered him. He didn't even break all that well -- and a horse who had been 2nd in a MCL 25K at Tampa this winter was used up trying to hook. Bias aided or not -- still tremendously impressive for that level. The fact that he was wrapped up with the ears pricked isn't a big deal to me. The horse was sprinting home and it's doubtful he could have gone any faster. That's normally a pretty slow track down there.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He went 3.80 seconds faster than the split heat.

So, had he run in the other open MSW division for males that day -- he would have won that race by 20+ lengths as well.

That's by far the fastest Mountaineer Park debuter I ever recall ... but it looks like the inside-speed friendly nature of the track that day flattered him. He didn't even break all that well -- and a horse who had been 2nd in a MCL 25K at Tampa this winter was used up trying to hook. Bias aided or not -- still tremendously impressive for that level. The fact that he was wrapped up with the ears pricked isn't a big deal to me. The horse was sprinting home and it's doubtful he could have gone any faster. That's normally a pretty slow track down there.

He didn't run particularly fast early, so the 96 isn't likely to be repeated unless he is a total freak. This is what I gave the race on a Beyer scale:

04/30/2012   5    79    80    97

So, yes, he flew home, but any good horse would have also given those numbers early.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He didn't run particularly fast early, so the 96 isn't likely to be repeated unless he is a total freak. This is what I gave the race on a Beyer scale:

04/30/2012   5    79    80    97

So, yes, he flew home, but any good horse would have also given those numbers early.

That's a good point.

But, he did run pretty fast early for a MSW horse at Mountaineer. For people who don't know, those type of races are typically won with Beyers of like 50.

The dam of this horse did route. She had won 5 in a row before finishing 4th in a Graded Stake (Delaware Oaks) going long.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That's a good point.

But, he did run pretty fast early for a MSW horse at Mountaineer. For people who don't know, those type of races are typically won with Beyers of like 50.

The dam of this horse did route. She had won 5 in a row before finishing 4th in a Graded Stake (Delaware Oaks) going long.

It is funny looking at the PPs of the other horses. The runner up, in a race where the winner was given a 96, gets a 36. I don't think I've ever seen a bigger gap, certainly not in a sprint.

Not a single horse has run back yet from the race. I'll be watching for the horse that pressed him for a while, Distinct Thriller. He was given a 25 Beyer, but he probably ran as well as he did the day he ran his top, a 51.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He didn't run particularly fast early, so the 96 isn't likely to be repeated unless he is a total freak. This is what I gave the race on a Beyer scale:

04/30/2012   5    79    80    97

So, yes, he flew home, but any good horse would have also given those numbers early.

Good horses don't debut at Mountaineer, except for this rare exception. Most horses in a MSW at Mnr with those early pace numbers would stop like they're carrying lead weight. Color me impressed.

[philcski]

Douglas- if you change your mind on the vacation, there is a 20-25% chance I will be there on Tuesday. Long story, but I probably have to drive back to WNY again next week. If I do, I'll probably stop in drErie and ride the Ravine Flyer again and hit the opening night card at PID.

[Calzone Lord]

The Lomax win looks like it came over a speed-biased racetrack.

1st race of the day: wire-to-wire at 37-to-1 odds.

2nd race of the day: wire-to-wire by five lengths at 16/1 odds.

3rd race of the day: wire-to-wire at 9/1 odds.

4th: route -- pace setter was 2nd at 3/1

5th race: Lomax wire-to-wire by 23.5

6th - pace setter was 2nd at 3/1

Off the pace types won 3 of the next 4 races.

[MaTH716]

If you had to guess, what odds will he go off at?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

If you had to guess, what odds will he go off at?

Hard to say. That's a brutally tough spot he''s entered in for just 100K. There are five horses in there who are proven stakes caliber horses.

I would scratch him. Makes no sense rushing back in two weeks off such a huge debut performance. Wait for an entry level alw race here where he'll romp. Conditions are worth it in PA. They already wasted the MSW at Mountaineer for a lousy 17K purse.

[slotdirt]

Really, I'm just looking for another Fabulous Strike.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Really, I'm just looking for another Fabulous Strike.

You'll be looking for a long time.

Fabulous Strike debuted at Tampa Bay Downs when I was there on-track --- he split the field.

He didn't become a sensation until he got hooked up with the alchemist at Penn National. But damn, was he tough.