2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

TRINNIBERG LIKELY TO BYPASS DERBY; DERBY TRIAL NEW TARGET

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (April 15, 2012) – With the final round of major prep races for the Kentucky Derby completed on Saturday, the Calder-based multiple graded stakes winner Trinniberg sits in 17th place in the latest graded-stakes earnings list. But even with his spot in the Derby starting gate seemingly assured, owner Shivananda Parbhoo has indicated that his colt is likely to pass the race.

“Right now I’m 85 percent not going to the Derby,” Parbhoo said on Sunday morning. “But I could reach 100 percent pretty soon. The way the horse is feeling right now, he’s doing so well, I don’t want to run him over his head. He’s a nice three-year-old with so many options the rest of the year. I don’t want to ruin him.”

While those mid-to-late season options could include such races as the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at Belmont Park on June 9 and the Grade 1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga August 25, the next option for the recent Grade 3 Bay Shore winner could be the $200,000 Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs, run at the distance of one mile on April 28.

“We’ll work him some time between the 18th and the 20th, and then we’ll look at the Derby Trial as the next logical spot,” Parbhoo said. “I think the one-mile distance of that race is perfect for him. And it’s a way to stretch him out a bit, without asking too much of him.”

Following a possible start in the Derby Trial, Parbhoo hinted that Trinniberg could still make a Triple Crown appearance in Baltimore, contesting the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes on May 19. But even that option appears to be fading somewhat from the owner’s mind.

“The Preakness could still be a goal, but a lot of that would depend on how he ran in the Derby Trial,” Parbhoo said. “If we decide to run (in the Derby Trial) and he was to win that race really easy, then we might look at the Preakness. But right now, my thinking is that I’d really like to keep him at seven furlongs to one mile.

“Believe me, I want to go to the Derby; the day we bought our first horse, our dream was the Derby,” Parbhoo continued. “But it’s not about me, it’s about the horse. I won’t ruin a really nice horse just to say I ran a horse in the Kentucky Derby.”

Originally Posted by Kasept

Welsch reports Parboo will run Trinniberg..

What a difference a few days makes. I understand getting Derby fever and being in the race will be huge for these connections.

But when you realize you are most likely hindering the horses future growth by running in an impossible spot, is it really worth it? Is it that exciting watching your horse lead the race for a half mile and then finish 20th beaten a pole?

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What a difference a few days makes. I understand getting Derby fever and being in the race will be huge for these connections.

But when you realize you are most likely hindering the horses future growth by running in an impossible spot, is it really worth it? Is it that exciting watching your horse lead the race for a half mile and then finish 20th beaten a pole?

You're absolutely right. But it's the one race where everyone says "**** it" if they got the graded earnings. Let's just hope they shelf him until July if he doesn't do well. (in regard to Trinniberg)

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What a difference a few days makes. I understand getting Derby fever and being in the race will be huge for these connections.

But when you realize you are most likely hindering the horses future growth by running in an impossible spot, is it really worth it? Is it that exciting watching your horse lead the race for a half mile and then finish 20th beaten a pole?

The article on BH taps into the mindset a bit. It's the Derby... hard to say no when you have a shot. He knows he has a fast sprinter, and he's going to try and see how far he goes.

I think I would have a hard time passing the race too.

From the article...

“We’ll know after the first half-mile what the result will be,” Parbhoo said, indicating how important the early stages of the Derby will prove for his colt. “We’ll know, the jockey will know, and the rest of the field will know. I’m not worried about anyone else in the race if my horse gets in front.”

And while pre-race strategy for the Derby would seem to suggest that Parbhoo will have Trinniberg on the lead, the owner has begun working his horse in company in hopes of teaching the colt to be comfortable around and behind other horses.

“We’ve been taking him to the track with a couple other horses from our barn,” Parbhoo said. “And we keep him behind those horses before letting him run. And he doesn’t even budge. We put a horse right next to him, and it doesn’t bother him a bit. But that comes with maturity. He used to be a little jumpy; he was a little high-strung. But very little seems to bother him anymore.

“Look, I’m just like everybody else in the race. I have a real nice horse with four legs that can run. We’re no different from any of the others. And it’s a once in a lifetime dream to run in the Derby.”

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...kely-for-derby

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The article on BH taps into the mindset a bit. It's the Derby... hard to say no when you have a shot. He knows he has a fast sprinter, and he's going to try and see how far he goes.

I think I would have a hard time passing the race too.

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

Right, I totally agree. Unfortunately, every year there are horses in the race where the connections don't have the best interest of the horse in mind. But like you said, it's easy for us to play Monday QB when we don't own the horse.

[pmayjr]

It's because it's the one race where every owner feels if they got a chance to run in it, they do. I'd like to think that most owners when presented with other opportunities would come to their senses and not subject their horses to this race when they don't have a chance in hell. But this race makes everyone think crazy. And the way the race has been wide-open in recent years with longshots winning, its tough to blame them for having a shred of hope. I'm pretty sure this year will finally buck that trend, but tough to blame any owner for not trying. As I said, hopefully his connections rest him until July if he gets his butt kicked.

But seriously DaHoss, of course you're right. I'm trying to think- beside Lost in the Fog off the top of my head, what 3 year-old contender that probably would've had enough graded money was taken off the trail because he wasn't good enough or probably couldn't go the distance? I mean taken off for reasons beside injury?

[pmayjr]

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentuck...possible-derby

Official article on Isn't he Clever. Owner J. Kirk Robison quoted as saying- “The Derby is still under consideration, but I’ve always said I would never enter the Derby if I didn’t think the horse would be competitive.”

But I don't think you transfer him to Asmussen and base him at Churchill to not run him if you got a chance. If there are no defections, he'll probably show up in the Preakness.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

But seriously DaHoss, of course you're right. I'm trying to think- beside Lost in the Fog off the top of my head, what 3 year-old contender that probably would've had enough graded money was taken off the trail because he wasn't good enough or probably couldn't go the distance? I mean taken off for reasons beside injury?

It's Sunday night and my brain is fried from a long week so I can't think right now.

The difference between this and your usual hopeless Derby entrant is the never going two turn thing, which is kind of important. Honestly, I never even thought Trinniberg was on the trail. And I can't remember the last Bay Shore winner being considered for the Derby, but I'm sure it's happened.

But I get your and Travis's point.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's Sunday night and my brain is fried from a long week so I can't think right now.

The difference between this and your usual hopeless Derby entrant is the never going two turn thing, which is kind of important. Honestly, I never even thought Trinniberg was on the trail. And I can't remember the last Bay Shore winner being considered for the Derby, but I'm sure it's happened.

But I get your and Travis's point.

Houston set the pace in 89, he was the last to run. Gulch in 87, Zabaleta pressed Groovy into last place in 86, Proud Appeal in 81.
Bold Forbes,Secretariat and Damascus (3rd as the favorite) were the most successful.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

The thing that you touched upon already, that makes this "surprise" entry particularly annoying, is that the trainer dude had spewed all the "I'm going to do the right thing by the horse" BS (that people on here lauded him for) only a week ago, and, predictably, has now gone back on his proclamation. Just like Bob Baffert with The Factor and Pete Miller with Comma To The Top last year.

[pmayjr]

he is the owner and trainer right? If he's the owner, then yeah, why all the BS in the first place?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

he is the owner and trainer right? If he's the owner, then yeah, why all the BS in the first place?

Probably because he is full of BS.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The thing that you touched upon already, that makes this "surprise" entry particularly annoying, is that the trainer dude had spewed all the "I'm going to do the right thing by the horse" BS (that people on here lauded him for) only a week ago, and, predictably, has now gone back on his proclamation. Just like Bob Baffert with The Factor and Pete Miller with Comma To The Top last year.

The Factor didn't enter the Derby last year. Maybe you're thinking of Conveyance from 2 years ago?

[Sightseek]

There was an article where he said that the defection of Secret Circle, and therefore less speed in the race (his words not mine) helped make the decision...

[slotdirt]

At least Conveyance had run respectably going two turns (one of which was a second place to Endorsement, my 2010 early Derby pick was on the shelf for 20 months following the 2010 Sunland Derby).

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

There was an article where he said that the defection of Secret Circle, and therefore less speed in the race (his words not mine) helped make the decision...

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Factor didn't enter the Derby last year. Maybe you're thinking of Conveyance from 2 years ago?

No, after The Factor won the 7f San Vicente, Bob Baffert was quoted in the DRF as saying "You won't see him going a mile and an eight anytime soon."

The next day (no exaggeration), Baffert said the colt's next start would be the Sunland Park Derby. He didn't run there, either, but the point was that he went back on what he said previously.

At least this Trinniberg guy waited 2 weeks.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No, after The Factor won the 7f San Vicente, Bob Baffert was quoted in the DRF as saying "You won't see him going a mile and an eight anytime soon."

The next day (no exaggeration), Baffert said the colt's next start would be the Sunland Park Derby. He didn't run there, either, but the point was that he went back on what he said previously.

At least this Trinniberg guy waited 2 weeks.

Yeah, I do remember that and see what you're sayign now.

I actually think The Factor is way better off in a lot of 8.5f and 9f races than he is in these one-turn races. He folds when he gets pressure...and thrives on a loose lead.

The Factor was awesome in his Rebel win on a loose lead and blew the field away in the final furlong at 8.5f. They tried to rate him back in the Arkansas Derby and he bombed.

Trinniberg hasn't proven it yet -- but he's a true sprinter who won't route no matter the pace. The trainer is wildly better with sprinters than routers -- it's Scott Lake like statistically. Trinniberg has way more raw speed as well.