2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

According to Churchill Downs PR, Liaison is shipping to CD. Baffert is apparently going to start he and Secret Circle in an effort to help his chances of bookending the field.

With the race shaping up to be pretty wide open, I"ll take as many auto tosses as possible (Liason). I probably wouldn't use Secret Circle either, but his ability to hit the board is far greater than Liason.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

With the race shaping up to be pretty wide open, I"ll take as many auto tosses as possible (Liason). I probably wouldn't use Secret Circle either, but his ability to hit the board is far greater than Liason.

I don't think either has a chance to hit the board, but Liason might actually have a better chance to suck up into something than Secret Circle considering their running styles and that there is no way Secret Circle wants 1 1/4 miles.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointman

I don't think either has a chance to hit the board, but Liason might actually have a better chance to suck up into something than Secret Circle considering their running styles and that there is no way Secret Circle wants 1 1/4 miles.

Running styles can change.

Mine That Bird and Super Saver both had been pressing paces and fading sharper through the stretch with the exact same running style as Secret Circle. They basically had the exact same running style as Secret Circle, but both were wildly inferior horses.

Borel simply took both of them way back and made one late run.

The good horses in Secret Circle's family are all deep closing routers.

If they do run him in the Kentucky Derby, they should take him well off the pace. On speed figures, he fits with every horse in the race not named Bodemeister. On Ragozin's he's probably the second fastest horse in this race... and his Arkansas Derby was better than older males in the OP Handicap because of weight and ground loss.

Liason has no chance of getting anything.

[Calzone Lord]

Anyone looking to re-live the greatness that is Super Saver and Mine That Bird:


* Super Saver makes the lead and fades in a weak Tampa Bay Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnmLRCgB550


* Line of David outgames Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5sf7UmQTus



* Mine That Bird storms to the lead at the 1/4 pole in the Sunland Derby and fades badly in the stretch run to finish 4th.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TwhwKe3YGY

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Running styles can change.

Mine That Bird and Super Saver both had been pressing paces and fading sharper through the stretch with the exact same running style as Secret Circle. They basically had the exact same running style as Secret Circle, but both were wildly inferior horses.

Borel simply took both of them way back and made one late run.

The good horses in Secret Circle's family are all deep closing routers.

If they do run him in the Kentucky Derby, they should take him well off the pace. On speed figures, he fits with every horse in the race not named Bodemeister. On Ragozin's he's probably the second fastest horse in this race... and his Arkansas Derby was better than older males in the OP Handicap because of weight and ground loss.

Liason has no chance of getting anything.

Didn't he bear out sharply in the stretch?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Didn't he bear out sharply in the stretch?

Yes.

He should be freshened for the summer. He's already run in four Graded Stakes routes since the Breeders Cup.

If Baffert does run him in the Derby -- he had better change his running style. He's going to run mid-pack at absolute best if the goal is to take him as wide as possible and stalk from up close.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes.

He should be freshened for the summer. He's already run in four Graded Stakes routes since the Breeders Cup.

If Baffert does run him in the Derby -- he had better change his running style. He's going to run mid-pack at absolute best if the goal is to take him as wide as possible and stalk from up close.

The question is can he change his running style in 3 weeks? They will have 2 works at best? Doesn't "bearing out" indicate exhaustion or some sort of physical issue?

I totally agree with the summer freshening idea. Same old story...why ruin a nice horse? (see Trinniberg connections)

[Calzone Lord]

It will be interesting to see what Borel tries to do with Take Charge Indy.

Even though he went wire-to-wire in the Fla Derby last time out, I wouldn't be surprised if he attempts to take him way back.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by asudevil

The question is can he change his running style in 3 weeks? They will have 2 works at best? Doesn't "bearing out" indicate exhaustion or some sort of physical issue?

I totally agree with the summer freshening idea. Same old story...why ruin a nice horse? (see Trinniberg connections)

Secret Circle has been one of my favorite horses since his debut at Del Mar. Baffert has been my favorite forever.... Secret Circle needs a break and a cutback. Why not the Met?