Union Rags Derby odds?

[HaloWishingwell]

when in doubt Churchill will overbet Borel. Gemologist will take money from those fascinated with the undefeated

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

when in doubt Churchill will overbet Borel. Gemologist will take money from those fascinated with the undefeated

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

[DaTruth]

I'm remaining neutral until the dapple reports start appearing.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down. Street Sense was probably about fair value but of course Borel had never won a derby at that point so his effect on the odds was much less than it is now, espescially among the casual fans who show up once a year just to bet the derby.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down.

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar

What was Mine That Bird in the exotics though? I've always felt the win odds don't represent the true wagering in the Kentucky Derby. Even though there is a lot of volume, more once-a-year racegoers bet into the win pool vs. the others.