New Zealand Racing, 2011-12

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It's FINALLY confirmed. She's in!
http://www.theinformant.co.nz/racing...or-Derby-entry

The other big news is the Moroney-trained filly Chicharita is also now in the Derby! They paid the late entry today. So we'll have a closer look at her in the next couple of days too.

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SHUKA

3 g Bachelor Duke - Alabama Rose
Breeder: The Oaks Stud
Owner: Parr Bloodstock
Purchased for $20,000 at 2010 NZ National Yearling Sale (!!)
Trainer: Peter & Dawn Williams
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley

13 starts
3 wins
3 seconds
2 thirds
4 stakes fourths and fifths

Major races:
1st G2 Wakefield Stakes (2yo)
2nd G2 Championship Stakes
2nd G2 Avondale Guineas
2nd Canterbury Stakes
3rd G3 Waikato Guineas
4th G2 Great Northern Guineas
5th G1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas
5th G1 Diamond Stakes (2yo)
5th G1 Sires' Produce Stakes (2yo)

Whew!

Derby odds: 8.00

Positives:
* He seems to run a terrific race every single time he steps out on a racetrack.
* No doubts about the distance or about Ellerslie.

Negatives:
* He just never wins!

You have to love Shuka. He hasn't run a bad race in his life, and he's always right there at the finish of every single race he runs in. But he hasn't had a major stakes win since January 2011, when he was a 2yo. He seems to just keep finding one or two that are better on the day, and most of the ones that have been beating him lately will be in this field. He'd be a popular winner, but another lovely placing looks like his best hope in the Derby.



CHICHARITA

3 f Towkay - Trisynd
Breeder: Suncroft Bloodstock
Owner: Segenhoe Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Michael Moroney & Andrew Clarken
Jockey: ?

7 starts
3 wins
0 seconds
1 third

Major races:
1st G2 Royal Stakes (fillies)

Derby odds: 14.00

Positives:
* A G2 winner over 2000m at Ellerslie against a strong field of fillies.
* Trainer Moroney has won the Derby three times before (Great Command 1996, Cut The Cake 2003 and Xcellent 2004)

Negatives:
* A bit disappointing last start.
* Regular jockey Chad Ormsby has opted for Ocean Park instead.
* The decision to run in the Derby seems to be a last-minute change of heart. The Oaks was the main goal. Will she be at her peak for this?

I loved this filly's performance in the Royal Stakes, and I think she's a massive chance in the New Zealand Oaks. I just don't like that the Derby wasn't in the plans until quite close before it, while so many others have been trained to peak on this day for the last few months. But the Moroney team are amazing and wouldn't put a horse in a race where they have no chance. Another problem I have is that her Derby jockey will most likely be riding her for the very first time in this race.

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks, ed! This is so cool!

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In other news: http://www.bloodstock.com.au/news/story.php?id=22921

Wow, I'm definitely going to go and have a look.

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Two more...

RED SHIFT

3 g Lucky Unicorn - Scarlet Queen
Breeder: Valachi Downs
Owner: OTI Racing
Purchased for $10,500 at 2010 NZ National Yearling Sale
Trainer: Regan Donnison
Jockey: Michael Coleman

9 starts
2 wins
1 second
3 thirds

No major races

Derby odds: 30.00

Positives:
* A big, powerful gelding with a lot of stamina.
* A winner over 2100m at Ellerslie.
* Recently purchased for apparently quite a large amount by a successful and experienced Australian syndicate that rate him highly.

Negatives:
* Untested against this class of opposition.
* Ran a terrible race last start - 7th in Rating 75 grade.

Until his last start, I thought this guy was a live contender in the Derby at big odds. But he was so bad in that race that I was forced into a rethink. He has to make up a dozen lengths on that performance to be even vaguely competitive against much stronger opposition here. His pedigree, size and running style scream 'Derby', but his last start was just too bad to ignore.



ANGELOLOGY

3 g Coats Choice - Fallen Angel
Breeder: A Jones & E Morris
Owner: A Illston, C Payne and M Prebble
Purchased for $3,250 at 2010 NZ National Yearling Sale
Trainer: Kevin Myers
Jockey: Kelly Myers

6 starts
4 wins
1 second
1 third

No major races

Derby odds: 18.00

Positives:
* He's been monstrous lately, winning races by up to 7 lengths
* Trainer Myers won the Derby in 2008 with C'est La Guerre

Negatives:
* All of his races have been in races worth $10,000 or less, and many of them have been on minor country racetracks - it's a big step up.

The mystery horse. I'd barely even heard of this gelding until his name was thrown into the Derby ring this week. Looking back at replays of his previous performances, he's a very visually impressive horse. His 7-length win was jaw-dropping. But the horses he's been racing against would be lapped in this race. He has to make a really, really big step up in class here.


I think these are all the major contenders - plus they're the only ones I have photos for! I'll cover the others in the next couple of days, but in a bit less detail.

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And the others...

TRAVOLTA
3 g Handsome Ransom - Belongs In Lights
Trainer: John Kiernan
Jockey: Mark Hills
9 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
4th G2 Avondale Guineas
A talented horse who ran a really good race in the Avondale Guineas, and it looks like he's peaking at the right time. But he was convincingly beaten by the first three in the Guineas, and I don't expect him to turn the tables on them.


MR CHEZ
3 g Duelled - Tittletaat
Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson
Jockey: Sam Spratt
10 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 3 thirds
4th Geelong Classic (AUS), 10th G1 Victoria Derby (AUS), 6th G2 Avondale Guineas
This guy seems to hardly ever run a bad race, but the fact that he's only had one win in his career so far makes it hard to see him as a real winning chance.


CARRICK
3 g Shinko King - Sunday
Trainer: Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue
Jockey: Leith Innes
4 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
3rd G2 Avondale Guineas
Never further back than third in his life, and he looks like a strong, tough 3yo. He also handles off tracks, which it looks like it might be (again!). But he has to improve significantly on his Guineas effort to threaten Silent Achiever.


GUESS WHAT
3 g Danroad - May Storm
Trainer: Paul Shailer
Jockey: Noel Harris
7 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third
4th G3 Waikato Guineas, 11th G2 Avondale Guineas
I really liked this guy's run in the Waikato Guineas, and I started to think he was a nice Derby longshot. But I expected him to improve in his next start, the Avondale, but instead he went backwards. Not a likely winner.


NINE PIN
3 g Pins - Tantara
Trainer: Leo Molloy
Jockey: Danielle Johnson
12 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third
No major races
This horse is really nicely bred, but his performances so far haven't really reflected that. He has to take a massive step up here.


ROAMIN
3 g Spartacus - Mintelle
Trainer: Robert Priscott & Clayton Chipperfield
Jockey: Trudy Thornton
14 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
5th G2 Avondale Guineas
This horse seems to be improving, with his last two starts being a good win and a career-best effort for 5th in the Avondale. But I don't think he's improving enough to be a real factor.


BARNEY
3 g Duelled - Light A Candle
Trainer: Anne Herbert
Jockey: Craig Grylls
6 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 1 third
6th G2 Championship Stakes, 7th G3 Waikato Guineas
Solid galloper who always tries hard. I think he could win a nice race at some point in his career, but I don't think this will be it.


COLORADO SUN
3 g Strada - Denver Night
Trainer: Shane Crawford
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
6 starts: 1 win, 0 seconds, 3 thirds
8th G2 Avondale Guineas
His Avondale effort was OK, but it was a long way from the level needed to win a Derby. His odds are 100-1, and that seems fair. He might be a nice stakes horse one day, but tomorrow's not that day.


JEROBOAM
3 g O'Reilly - Sexy
Trainer: Graham Richardson
Jockey: ??
5 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 1 third
No major races
I actually really like this guy as a future G1 horse, but I think the Derby is coming just a bit too soon for him. He's never faced this quality of opposition before, and I don't think he's quite ready to compete with the big boys just yet. But Richardson's the in-form trainer of the summer in NZ. It seems almost every horse he saddles up wins. So you never know.

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IT'S DERBY DAY!

Ocean Park was surprisingly scratched yesterday when the weather forecast was really bad. But the weather's fine today, so they must be regretting that now!


Odds...

Rock 'n' Pop 8.00
Shuka 7.00
Ocean Park SCRATCHED
Red Shift 15.00
Travolta 26.00
Mr Chez 51.00
Angelology 13.00
Carrick 10.00
Guess What 61.00
Nine Pin 61.00
Roamin 61.00
Barney 51.00
Colorado Sun 61.00
Jeroboam 61.00
Silent Achiever 2.80f
Zurella 13.00
Chicharita 10.00

Good luck to everyone lucky enough to be connected with one of these horses.